• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.420-426
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• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to examine the business cycle in the Jeju region and what differences exist in relation to the nation as a whole, to calculate the relative importance between the random walk stochastic trend and cyclical factor, and to find out its causes and implications. Results of empirical analysis found that the characteristics of the business cycle in the Jeju region were as follows: First, the Jeju region, which is likely to have a growth component of the economy such as technological development and the accumulation of capital, was projected to have a possibility of high growth due to a greater proportion of the stochastic trend factor(46.8%) than the entire country(27.8%). Secondly, employment fluctuation in Jeju, which varies from 0.007 to 0.058 depending on the model, was lowest compared to the fluctuation of other indicators. The employment market in Jeju remained firm, showing that it is not smooth enough to create new jobs despite the production growth in industry. Third, the tourism industry was acting as a stabilizing factor, whereas the mining and manufacturing production was the opposite of tourism industry. This implies that the mining and manufacturing production was based on a weak foundation.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.393-406
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• 2015

We examine how to model mortality risk using the adaptation of the mean-reverting processes for the two factor model proposed by Cairns et al. (2006b). Mortality improvements have been recently observed in some countries such as United Kingdom; therefore, we assume long-run mortality converges towards a trend at some unknown time and the mean-reverting processes could therefore be an appropriate stochastic model. We estimate the parameters of the two-factor model incorporated with mean-reverting processes by a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to fit United Kingdom mortality data from 1991 to 2015. We forecast the evolution of the mortality from 2014 to 2040 based on the estimation results in order to evaluate the issue price of a longevity bond of 25 years maturity. As an application, we propose a method to quantify the speed of mortality improvement by the average mean reverting times of the processes.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.47-70
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to estimate total factor productivity(TFP) growth by stochastic frontier function and to grasp contributing factors of its growth rate by decomposing the total factor productivity into efficiency change, technical progress, scale change, and allocation change. Annual growth rate of total factor productivity for 1990-2003 is 0.019 (1.9%), higher than that of overall industry (0.010). The main component of TFP growth is not efficiency change but technical progress. Contributing factors of total factor productivity growth are change of allocation efficiency in port industry, technical progress in sea-transportation industry, and change of scale efficiency in transportation-equipment industry. The change of total factor productivity shows a decreasing trend since late in the 1990s. The annual technical efficiency of port-logistics industry is less than that of overall industry. Capital elasticity for output (0.391) is higher than labor elasticity (0.227), but scale economy of port-logistics industry is 0.618, which is far from optimal scale economy.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.93-109
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• 2021

Purpose - The logistics industry is often featured by its location relevance and industrial concentration. Industrial concentration is conducive to the effective transmission of information by reducing transaction costs and improving transaction efficiency, thus promoting the development of trade. The main purpose of this paper is to measure the spatial total factor productivity and location quotient of the logistics industry in Korea, and to study the impact of the logistics industry efficiency and agglomeration effect on import and export trade in Korea. Design/methodology - First, used the spatial stochastic frontier method to measure the spatial total factor productivity of the logistics industry in Korea, this serves as the efficiency index of the logistics industry in various regions of Korea. Second, calculated the location quotient (LQ) of the logistics industry to measure the industry's concentration degree. Third, employed a spatial econometric model to analyze the impacts of factors such as the efficiency and concentration levels of the logistics industry on import and export trade in Korea. Findings - This study's main findings can be summarized as follows: this study found that the overall efficiency of the logistics industry in Korea needs to be improved, even though it showed an upward trend in all regions of the country; Moreover, the agglomeration level of Korea's logistics industry needs to be improved; Finally, the positive spatial correlation and industrial agglomeration effect of Korea's logistics industry had a positive impact on the country's import and export trade. Originality/value - This study is innovative in terms of research perspective and methods. Most of the previous studies have measured the development level of the logistics industry using the logistics performance index (LPI), Fewer studies have assessed through the spatial total factor productivity and location quotient of the logistics industry in Korea to measure the efficiency index of the logistics industry in various regions of Korea and concentration degree, as well as there was almost no study on the impact of logistics industry efficiency and agglomeration effect on import and export trade in Korea. This study addresses this limitation by analyzing the impacts of the efficiency and agglomeration effect of the logistics industry on import and export trade in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.9-18
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• 2011

After the launch of PCS in 1997, the mobile telephone industry has achieved a remarkable growth in market share and sales, and substituted for long-distance wire communication market. This study investigates the interrelationships between the two markets in transition and attempts to perform the statistical tests if the diffusion of mobile telephone was the direct factor for the reduction in sales of long-distance communication industry. The evidence of the direct substitution effect between the two markets is not likely to be found. Unlike the general expectations, the test result seems to prove the sustained initial complementary relation for awhile.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.697-712
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• 2010

This paper is concerned with the statistical analysis and development of stochastic models for the demand for life insurance policy loans. For these, firstly the characteristics of the regression trend, periodicity and dependence of the monthly demand for life insurance policy loans are investigated by a statistical analysis of the monthly demand data for the years 1999 through 2008. Secondly, the causal relationships between the demand for life insurance policy loans and the economic variables including unemployment rate and inflation rate for the period are investigated. The results show that inflation rate is main factor influencing policy loan demands. The overall evidence, however, failed to establish unidirectional causality relationships between the demand series and the other variables under study. Finally, based on these, univariate time series model and transfer function model where the demand series is related to one input series are derived, respectively, for the prediction of the demand for life insurance policy loans. A statistical procedure for using the model to predict the demand for life insurance policy loans is also proposed.