• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.72-77
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• 2002

The development of a Pay Adjustment (PA) procedure for implementing Performance-related Specifications (PRS) is known to be a difficult task faced by most State Highway Agencies (SHAs) due to the difficulty in such areas as selecting pay factor items, modeling the relationship between stochastic variability of pay factor items and pavement performance, and determining an overall lot pay adjustment. This led to the need for an effective way of developing a scientific pay adjustment procedure by incorporating Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) embedded Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we propose a prototype system to determine a PA specifically using the data in the pavement management information systems at Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) as an exemplary to other SHAs. It is believed that the PRS methodology demonstrated in this study can be used in real projects by incorporating the more accurate and reliable performance prediction models and LCC model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.337-351
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• 2010

There is a growing dissatisfaction with use of conventional statistical methods for the prediction of extreme events. Conventional methodology for modeling extreme event consists of adopting an asymptotic model to describe stochastic variation. However asymptotically motivated models remain the centerpiece of our modeling strategy, since without such an asymptotic basis, models have no rational for extrapolation beyond the level of observed data. Also, this asymptotic models ignored or overestimate the uncertainty and finally decrease the reliability of uncertainty. Therefore this article provide the research example of the extreme rainfall event and the methodology to reduce the uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) methods using a quadratic approximation are applied to perform the at-site rainfall frequency analysis. Especially, the GEV distribution and Gumbel distribution which frequently used distribution in the fields of rainfall frequency distribution are used and compared. Also, the results of two distribution are analyzed and compared in the aspect of uncertainty.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.679-695
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• 2024

This paper presents a novel technique that combines machine learning (ML) with moth-flame optimization (MFO) methods to predict the axial compressive strength (ACS) of concrete filled double skin steel tubes (CFDST) columns. The proposed model is trained and tested with a dataset containing 125 tests of the CFDST column subjected to compressive loading. Five ML models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient tree boosting (GBT), categorical gradient boosting (CAT), support vector machines (SVM), and decision tree (DT) algorithms, are utilized in this work. The MFO algorithm is applied to find optimal hyperparameters of these ML models and to determine the most effective model in predicting the ACS of CFDST columns. Predictive results given by some performance metrics reveal that the MFO-CAT model provides superior accuracy compared to other considered models. The accuracy of the MFO-CAT model is validated by comparing its predictive results with existing design codes and formulae. Moreover, the significance and contribution of each feature in the dataset are examined by employing the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification on probabilistic characteristics of the ACS of CFDST columns is conducted for the first time to examine the models' responses to variations of input variables in the stochastic environments. Finally, a web-based application is developed to predict ACS of the CFDST column, enabling rapid practical utilization without requesting any programing or machine learning expertise.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.1-15
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• 1997

This paper presents substructural identification methods for the assessment of local damages in complex and large structural systems. For this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for a substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. Using the substructural methods, the number of unknown parameters for each identification can be significantly reduced, hence the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. Secondly, the damage index is defined as the ratio of the current stiffness to the baseline value at each element for the damage assessment. The indirect estimation method was performed using the estimated results from the identification of the system matrices from the substructural identification. To demonstrate the proposed techniques, several simulation and experimental example analyses are carried out for structural models of a 2-span truss structure, a 3-span continuous beam model and 3-story building model. The results indicate that the present substructural identification method and damage estimation methods are effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.80-87
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• 2010

This study was conducted to develop a reservoir modelling workflow to reproduce the heterogeneous distribution of effective permeability that impacts on the performance of SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage), the in-situ bitumen recovery technique in the Athabasca Oil Sands. Lithologic facies distribution is the main cause of the heterogeneity in bitumen reservoirs in the study area. The target formation consists of sand with mudstone facies in a fluvial-to-estuary channel system, where the mudstone interrupts fluid flow and reduces effective permeability. In this study, the lithologic facies is classified into three classes having different characteristics of effective permeability, depending on the shapes of mudstones. The reservoir modelling workflow of this study consists of two main modules; facies modelling and permeability modelling. The facies modelling provides an identification of the three lithologic facies, using a stochastic approach, which mainly control the effective permeability. The permeability modelling populates mudstone volume fraction first, then transforms it into effective permeability. A series of flow simulations applied to mini-models of the lithologic facies obtains the transformation functions of the mudstone volume fraction into the effective permeability. Seismic data contribute to the facies modelling via providing prior probability of facies, which is incorporated in the facies models by geostatistical techniques. In particular, this study employs a probabilistic neural network utilising multiple seismic attributes in facies prediction that improves the prior probability of facies. The result of using the improved prior probability in facies modelling is compared to the conventional method using a single seismic attribute to demonstrate the improvement in the facies discrimination. Using P-wave velocity in combination with density in the multiple seismic attributes is the essence of the improved facies discrimination. This paper also discusses sand matrix porosity that makes P-wave velocity differ between the different facies in the study area, where the sand matrix porosity is uniquely evaluated using log-derived porosity, P-wave velocity and photographically-predicted mudstone volume.