• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic generation

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A Stochastic Generation of Synthetic Monthly Flow by Disaggregation Model (Disaggregation 모형에 의한 월유량의 추계학적 모의발생)

  • 박찬영;서병하
    • Water for future
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.167-180
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    • 1986
  • Disaggregation model has recently become a major technique in the field of synthetic generation and the model is possibly one of the most widely acepted tools in stochastic hydrology. The application of disaggregation model is evaluated with the streamflow data at the Waegwan and Hyunpung stage gaugin station on the main stem of the Nakdong River. The disaggregation process of annual streamflow data and the method of parameter estimation for the model is reviewed and the statistical analysis of the generated monthly streamflows such as a computation of moment estimation of covariance and correlogram analysis is made. The results, disaggregated monthly streamflow, obtained by Disaggregation Basic Model for single site are compared with the historical streamflow data and also with the other model, Thomas-Fiering Model. The generated monthly streamflow data by two models have been investigated and verified by comparision of mean and standard deviation between the historical and generated data.

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Stochastic Generation Model Development for Optimum Reservoir Operation of Water Distribution System (저수지 최적운영모형을 위한 추계학적 모의 발생 모형의 유도)

  • Kim, Tae Geun;Yoon, Yong Nam;Kim, Joong Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.887-896
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    • 1994
  • It is common practice in the case of optimum reservoir operation model that the reservoir inflow series are generated by stochastic model with keeping other variable such as water demands from the reservoir constant. However, when the input and output of the water distribution system have close relationship the output variables can be stochastically generated in relation with the input variables. In the present study the reservoir inflow series, the input of the system, is generated by periodic autoregressive model with constant parameter, and the agricultural water demand series, the output, is generated using periodic multivariate autoregressive model with constant parameter. The time period of the data series generated is taken as 10-day which is the common period used for agricultural water uses. The results of data generation by two different models showed that the periodic stochastic models well represent the characteristics of the historical time series, and that in the case of generating model for agricultural demand series it has closer relation with reservoir inflow than with the series itself.

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Stochastic Channel Modeling for Railway Tunnel Scenarios at 25 GHz

  • He, Danping;Ai, Bo;Guan, Ke;Zhong, Zhangdui;Hui, Bing;Kim, Junhyeong;Chung, Heesang;Kim, Ilgyu
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2018
  • More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high-data-rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the "Mobile Hotspot Network" system, a three-dimensional ray tracer (RT) is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500-MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd-Generation-Partnership-Project-like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link-level and system-level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.

Statistical Characteristics and Stochastic Modeling of Water Quality Data at the Influent of Daejeon Wastewater Treatment Plant (대전시 공공하수처리시설 유입수 수질자료의 통계적 특성 및 추계학적 모의)

  • Pak, Gijung;Jung, Minjae;Lee, Hansaem;Kim, Deokwoo;Yoon, Jaeyong;Paik, Kyungrock
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.38-49
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we analyze statistical characteristics of influent water quality in Daejeon waste water treatment plant and apply a stochastic model for data generation. In the analysis, the influent water quality data from year 2003 to 2008, except for year 2006, are used. Among water quality variables, we find strong correlations between BOD and T-N; T-N and T-P; BOD and T-P; $COD_{Mn}$ and T-P; and BOD and $COD_{Mn}$. We also find that different water quality variables follow different theoretical probability distribution functions, which also depends on whether the seasonal cycle is removed. Finally, we generate the influent water quality data using the multi-season 1st Markov model (Thomas-Fiering model). With model parameters calibrated for the period 2003~2005, the generated data for 2007~2008 are well compared with observed data showing good agreement in general. BOD and T-N are underestimated by the stochastic model. This is mainly due to the statistical difference in observed data itself between two periods of 2003~2005 and 2007~2008. Therefore, we expect the stochastic model can be applied with more confidence in the case that the data follows stationary pattern.

Efficient Relay Node Selection in Stochastic DTN Model (확률적 DTN 모델에서 효율적인 중계 노드 선택 방법)

  • Dho, Yoon-Hyng;Lee, Kang-Whan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.367-370
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes a method for selecting efficient relay nodes in stochastic DTN model. Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) uses the Carry and Forward method, which creates a bundle layer for efficient communication, selects relay nodes between different networks and heterogeneous networks, and forwards messages. DTN is basically composed of mobile nodes so DTN has no fixed routing route and it has long latency due to intermittent connection. Therefore, the nodes constituting the DTN necessarily have the characteristics to store the messages, and the capacity of the stored messages and nodes affects the performance of the network. Stochastic DTN model proposed a Markov model that changes randomly over time to analyze the performance of DTN. In this paper, we use stochastic message distribution and node contact probabilities using contact time analyzed through message generation and extinction in order to select efficient relay nodes in stochastic DTN model.

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A STUDY ON SYNTHETIC GENERATION OF MONTHLY STREAMFLOW BY BIVARIATE ANALYSIS (BIVARIATE ANALYSIS에 의한 월류량에 모의발생에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Byeong-Ha;Yun, Yong-Nam;Gang, Gwan-Won
    • Water for future
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 1979
  • The sequences of monthly streamflows constitute a non-statonary time series. The purely stochastic model has been applied to data generation of non-stationary time series. Tow different mothods--single site and multisite generation--have been used on the hydrologic time series. In this study the synthetic generation method by bivariate analysis, studied by Thomas Fiering, one of multi-site models, has been applied to the historical data on monthly streamflows at two sites in Nakdong River, and also for validity of this model the single site Thomas Fiering model applied. Through statistical analysis it has been shown that the performance of bivariate Thomas Fiering model was better than that of the other. By comparison of mean and standard deviaion between the historical and the generated, and cross correlogram interpretation, it has been known that the model used herein has good performance to simultaneously generate the monthly streamflows at two sites in a river hasin.

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Development of ESS Scheduling Algorithm to Maximize the Potential Profitability of PV Generation Supplier in South Korea

  • Kong, Junhyuk;Jufri, Fauzan Hanif;Kang, Byung O;Jung, Jaesung
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2227-2235
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    • 2018
  • Under the current policies and compensation rules in South Korea, Photovoltaic (PV) generation supplier can maximize the profit by combining PV generation with Energy Storage System (ESS). However, the existing operational strategy of ESS is not able to maximize the profit due to the limitation of ESS capacity. In this paper, new ESS scheduling algorithm is introduced by utilizing the System Marginal Price (SMP) and PV generation forecasting to maximize the profits of PV generation supplier. The proposed algorithm determines the charging time of ESS by ranking the charging schedule from low to high SMP when PV generation is more than enough to charge ESS. The discharging time of ESS is determined by ranking the discharging schedule from high to low SMP when ESS energy is not enough to maintain the discharging. To compensate forecasting error, the algorithm is updated every hour to apply the up-to-date information. The simulation is performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by using actual PV generation and ESS information.

Development of Pareto strategy multi-objective function method for the optimum design of ship structures

  • Na, Seung-Soo;Karr, Dale G.
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.602-614
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    • 2016
  • It is necessary to develop an efficient optimization technique to perform optimum designs which have given design spaces, discrete design values and several design goals. As optimization techniques, direct search method and stochastic search method are widely used in designing of ship structures. The merit of the direct search method is to search the optimum points rapidly by considering the search direction, step size and convergence limit. And the merit of the stochastic search method is to obtain the global optimum points well by spreading points randomly entire the design spaces. In this paper, Pareto Strategy (PS) multi-objective function method is developed by considering the search direction based on Pareto optimal points, the step size, the convergence limit and the random number generation. The success points between just before and current Pareto optimal points are considered. PS method can also apply to the single objective function problems, and can consider the discrete design variables such as plate thickness, longitudinal space, web height and web space. The optimum design results are compared with existing Random Search (RS) multi-objective function method and Evolutionary Strategy (ES) multi-objective function method by performing the optimum designs of double bottom structure and double hull tanker which have discrete design values. Its superiority and effectiveness are shown by comparing the optimum results with those of RS method and ES method.

Generation of Artificial Earthquake Ground Motions for the Area with Low Seismicity (국내 지진 기록을 이용한 약진 지역에서의 인공지진파 발생에 관한 연구)

  • 김승훈;이승창;한상환;이리형
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.497-504
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    • 1998
  • In the nonlinear dynamic structural analysis, the given ground excitation as an input should be well defined. Because of the lack of recorded accelerograms in Korea, it is required to generate an artificial earthquake by a stochastic model of ground excitation with various dynamic properties rather than recorded accelerograms. It is well own that earthquake motions are generally non-stationary with time-varying intensity and frequency content. Many researchers have proposed non-stationary random process models. Yeh and Wen (1990) proposed a non-stationary stochastic process model which can be modeled as components with an intensity function, a frequency modulation function and a power spectral density function to describe such non-stationary characteristics. This model is based on the simulation for the strong-motion earthquakes with magnitude greater than approximately 5.0~6.0, because it will be not only expected to cause structural damage but also involved the characteristics of earthquake motions. Also, the recorded earthquake motion within this range are still very scarce in Korea. Thus, it is necessary to verify the model by the application of it to the mid-magnitude (approximately 4.0~6.0) earthquakes actually recorded in domestic or foreign area. The purpose of the paper is to generate an artificial earthquake using the model of Yeh and Wen in the area with low seismicity.

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Development of a Multi-objective function Method Based on Pareto Optimal Point (Pareto 최적점 기반 다목적함수 기법 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Na, Seung-Soo
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.42 no.2 s.140
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2005
  • It is necessary to develop an efficient optimization technique to optimize the engineering structures which have given design spaces, discrete design values and several design goals. As optimization techniques, direct search method and stochastic search method are widely used in designing of engineering structures. The merit of the direct search method is to search the optimum points rapidly by considering the search direction, step size and convergence limit. And the merit of the stochastic search method is to obtain the global optimum points by spreading point randomly entire the design spaces. In this paper, a Pareto optimal based multi-objective function method (PMOFM) is developed by considering the search direction based on Pareto optimal points, step size, convergence limit and random search generation . The PMOFM can also apply to the single objective function problems, and can consider the discrete design variables such as discrete plate thickness and discrete stiffener spaces. The design results are compared with existing Evolutionary Strategies (ES) method by performing the design of double bottom structures which have discrete plate thickness and discrete stiffener spaces.