• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical confidence

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Statistical Methods for the Use of Infiltration and Inflow as Performance Index in Sewer Rehabilitation Works (하수관거정비사업에서 침입수.유입수 성과지표 활용을 위한 통계적 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Joon;Park, Kyoo-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.617-628
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    • 2010
  • The operation performance of sewer rehabilitation projects conducted with Build-Transfer- Lease contract in Korea will be evaluated using the index of infiltration and inflow (I/I). Though I/I obtained at the fourth year should be initially evaluated based on the I/I values observed for the previous three years after the completion of sewer construction, the concrete methodology have not been proposed to rely on the so called 'performance evaluation committee'. This study suggests two statistical methodology to evaluate the I/I performance; the confidence interval method and the hypothesis-testing method. Assumed ten I/I values in each year for 20 years are used in this study. Two cases are analyzed and compared; case I to use as control data all I/I values for all years obtained before the evaluation year and case II to use I/I values for only 3 years before the evaluation year. As a result, case II tends to have relatively higher scores than case I, reflecting the low mean I/I values at the initial years.

Undecided inference using the difference of AUCs (AUC 차이를 이용한 미결정자 추론방법)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Na, Hae Rin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2021
  • A new statistical model needs additional variables in order to re-evaluate the undecided inference. Then the MNAR assumption is required, since the probabilities for the positivity of the indeterminant and the determinant is calculated differently. In this study, since two statistical models have a hierarchical relationship, we determine the undecided inference under the MNAR assumption using the confidence interval of the difference between two AUCs. Among many methods of estimating the confidence interval of the AUC difference, it is found that four kinds of methods show excellent performance through simulations. And based on these methods, we propose a variable selection method that are useful for the undecided inference using logistic regression models.

On Statistical Inference of Stratified Population Mean with Bootstrap (층화모집단 평균에 대한 붓스트랩 추론)

  • Heo, Tae-Young;Lee, Doo-Ri;Cho, Joong-Jae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2012
  • In a stratified sample, the sampling frame is divided into non-overlapping groups or strata (e.g. geographical areas, age-groups, and genders). A sample is taken from each stratum, if this sample is a simple random sample it is referred to as stratified random sampling. In this paper, we study the bootstrap inference (including confidence interval) and test for a stratified population mean. We also introduce the bootstrap consistency based on limiting distribution related to the plug-in estimator of the population mean. We suggest three bootstrap confidence intervals such as standard bootstrap method, percentile bootstrap method and studentized bootstrap method. We also suggest a bootstrap test method computing the $ASL_{boot}$(Achieved Significance Level). The results of estimation are verified using simulation.

Bootstrap Calibrated Confidence Bound for Variance Components Model (분산 성분 모형에 대한 붓스트랩 보정 신뢰구간)

  • Lee, Yong-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.535-544
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    • 2006
  • We consider use of Bootstrap calibration in the problem of setting a confidence interval for a linear combination of variance components. Based on the the modified large sample(MLS) method by Graybill and Wang(1980), Bootstrap Calibration is applied to improve the coverage probability of the MLS confidence bound when the experiment is balanced and coefficients of a linear combination are positive. Performance of the proposed confidence bound in small sample is investigated by simulation studies.

Updated confidence intervals for the COVID-19 antibody retention rate in the Korean population

  • Kamruzzaman, Md.;Apio, Catherine;Park, Taesung
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.45.1-45.5
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    • 2020
  • With the ongoing rise of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe, interests in COVID-19 antibody testing, also known as a serology test has grown, as a way to measure how far the infection has spread in the population and to identify individuals who may be immune. Recently, many countries reported their population based antibody titer study results. South Korea recently reported their third antibody formation rate, where it divided the study between the general population and the young male youths in their early twenties. As previously stated, these simple point estimates may be misinterpreted without proper estimation of standard error and confidence intervals. In this article, we provide an updated 95% confidence intervals for COVID-19 antibody formation rate for the Korean population using asymptotic, exact and Bayesian statistical estimation methods. As before, we found that the Wald method gives the narrowest interval among all asymptotic methods whereas mid p-value gives the narrowest among all exact methods and Jeffrey's method gives the narrowest from Bayesian method. The most conservative 95% confidence interval estimation shows that as of 00:00 November 23, 2020, at least 69,524 people were infected but not confirmed. It also shows that more positive cases were found among the young male in their twenties (0.22%), three times that of the general public (0.051%). This thereby calls for the quarantine authorities' need to strengthen quarantine managements for the early twenties in order to find the hidden infected people in the population.

Development of a Program to Promote Maternal Role Confidence and Maternal Attachment for Mothers of Premature Infants (미숙아 어머니의 어머니 역할 수행 자신감과 모아 애착 증진을 위한 프로그램 개발 및 적용 효과)

  • Kim, Eun Sook;Yi, Young Hee;Lee, Eun Jung;Lee, Jung Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Clinical Nursing Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop a program to promote maternal role confidence and maternal attachment for mothers of premature infants and to evaluate the effects in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Methods: This program was developed through a literature review and validation of an expert group, and tested with 60 preterm infants (experimental group 30, control group 30) in a NICU in South Korea. Data were collected from December 2017 to March 2018 and analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, $x^2-test$ and Fisher's exact test with the SPSS/Win statistical program. Results: Maternal role confidence for the experimental group increased significantly compared to the control group (t=3.22, p=.002). Maternal attachment in the experimental group increased significantly compared to the control group (t=2.30, p=.025). Conclusion: The program developed in this study should be effective in promoting maternal role confidence and maternal attachment in mothers of premature infants.

Statistical Performance Estimation of a Multibody System Based on Design Variable Samples (설계변수 표본에 근거한 다물체계 성능의 통계적 예측)

  • Choi, Chan-Kyu;Yoo, Hong-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.33 no.12
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    • pp.1449-1454
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    • 2009
  • The performance variation of a multibody system is affected by a variation of various design variables of the system. And the effects of design variable variations on the performance variation must be considered in design of a multibody system. Accordingly, a variation analysis of a multibody system needs to be conducted in design of a multibody system. For a variation analysis of a performance, population mean and variance which are called statistical parameters of design variables are needed. However, an evaluation of statistical parameters of design variables is impossible in many practical cases. Therefore, an estimation of statistical parameters of the performance based on sample mean and variance which are called statistic of design variables is needed. In this paper, the variation analysis method for a multibody system based on design variable samples was proposed. And, using the proposed method, a variation analysis of the vehicle ride comfort based on sample statistic of design variables was conducted.

Statistical Evaluation of Fracture Characteristics of RPV Steels in the Ductile-Brittle Transition Temperature Region

  • Kang, Sung-Sik;Chi, Se-Hwan;Hong, Jun-Hwa
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.364-376
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    • 1998
  • The statistical analysis method was applied to the evaluation of fracture toughness in the ductile-brittle transition temperature region. Because cleavage fracture in steel is of a statistical nature, fracture toughness data or values show a similar statistical trend. Using the three-parameter Weibull distribution, a fracture toughness vs. temperature curve (K-curve) was directly generated from a set of fracture toughness data at a selected temperature. Charpy V-notch impact energy was also used to obtain the K-curve by a $K_{IC}$ -CVN (Charpy V-notch energy) correlation. Furthermore, this method was applied to evaluate the neutron irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steel. Most of the fracture toughness data were within the 95% confidence limits. The prediction of a transition temperature shift by statistical analysis was compared with that from the experimental data.

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An Introduction to Data Analysis (자료 분석의 기초)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Lee, Young-Won
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.189-199
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    • 2009
  • With the growing importance of evidence-based medicine, clinical or biomedical research relies critically on the validity and reliability of data, and the subsequent statistical inferences for medical decision-making may lead to valid conclusion. Despite widespread use of analytical techniques in papers published in the Journal of Veterinary Clinics statistical errors particularly in design of experiments, research methodology or data analysis methods are commonly encountered. These flaws often leading to misinterpretation of the data, thereby, subjected to inappropriate conclusions. This article is the first in a series of nontechnical introduction designed not to systemic review of medical statistics but intended to provide the journal readers with an understanding of common statistical concepts, including data scale, selection of appropriate statistical methods, descriptive statistics, data transformation, confidence interval, the principles of hypothesis testing, sampling distribution, and interpretation of results.

A Comparative Evaluation of Confidence of Vehicle-Dectetor Informations for Real-Time Traffic Signal Control. (실시간신호제어를 위한 차량검지기 정보의 신뢰성 비교평가)

  • 오영태;이철기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.91-125
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this paper is comparatively to evaluate the confidence of Vehicle-Detector informations for various detectors in order to test to be possible the application of these to real time traffic signal control. The detectors which are tested for this study are Circle-Shaped Loop, Ultrasonic, Microwave and Image detector. The tested items for each detectors are traffic volume, degree of saturation for through and left turn movement, speed and queue length, etc. These items for each are tested at the field according to several situations, such as dry day, raining day, night and daytime. The result of these tests are performed comparative analysis and statistical examination in order to increase the confidence of the experiments.

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