• 제목/요약/키워드: statistical assessment

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

A Study of Current Perception Threshold of Trigeminal Nerve after Tooth Implantation (치아임플란트 시술 후 삼차신경에서의 전류인지역치에 대한 연구)

  • Lim, Hyun-Dae;Lee, Jung-Hyun;Lee, You-Mee
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.187-200
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    • 2007
  • This study attempted to contribute to the clinical application of implant operation by making a quantitative nerve examination using a neurometer for the evaluation of sensory disturbances that could be incurred after the implantation in the dental clinics, and it intended to establish an objective guideline in the evaluation of sensory nerve after the operation of implant. An inspection was performed with the frequencies of 2000Hz, 250 Hz and 5 Hz before and after the operations of tooth implant using $Neurometer^{(R)}$ CPT/C (Neurotron, Inc. Baltimore, Maryland, USA) for 44 patients who had performed an implant operation among the patients coming to Daejeon Sun Dental Hospital in 2006 and 30 people for control group. The measuring sites were maxillary nerve ending and mandibular nerve ending of trigeminal nerve according to the implant operating regions. The current perception threshold (CPT) by each nerve fiber was specifically responded under the electric stimulation of 2000 Hz in case of $A{\beta}$ fiber and of 250 Hz in case of $A{\delta}$ fiber and of 5Hz in case of C fiber. The CPT test could be performed to assess the damages of peripheral nerve in the trigeminal nerve area and it stimulated selective nerve fibers by generating the electricity of specific frequency in the peripheral nerve area. The nerve fibers with varied thickness were responsive selectively to the electric stimulation with different frequencies; accordingly, they applied the electric stimulation with different frequencies and the reaction threshold of $A{\beta},\;A{\delta}$ and C fibers selectively responsive to each electric current could be individually evaluated. In the assessment through the CPT, the increase and decrease of the CPT could be measured so that sensory disturbances such as hyperaesthesia or hypoaesthesia could be diagnosed. This study could obtain the following results after the assessment of the CPT before and after the implant operation. 1. In the assessment before and after the implant operation, the CPT in the frequencies of 2000 Hz, 250 Hz, 5 Hz for maxillary branch increased on the whole after the operation and the CPT for mandibular branch in the $A{\beta}$-fiber(2000 Hz) and C-fiber(5 Hz )after the operation increased statistically significantly. 2. For the groups of patients with medically compromised or its subsequent medicinal prescription, there were no significant differences before and after the implant operation and for the control groups, significantly high CPT was shown after the implant operation in the left $A{\beta}$-fiber(2000 Hz) and C-fiber(5 Hz). 3. In the comparison of the measured value of the CPT before the operation between the control group and the implant operation group, the latter group had a significantly high measured value of the CPT in the right $A{\beta}$-fiber(2000 Hz) and C-fiber(5 Hz) and there were significant differences in $A{\beta}$-fiber(2000 Hz) in the CPT assessment after the implant operation for the control group. 4. Male participants had higher CPT than female counterparts; however, there were no statistic significances. In the CPT evaluation before and after implant operation, there were no statistical differences in the male group while the right C-fiber(5 Hz) and left $A{\beta}$-fiber(2000Hz) were significantly high in the female group. 5. In the comparison between the group who complain sensory disturbance and the other group, the CPT increased on the whole in the former group, but there were no statistical significances. In the groups, whom there was an increase in VAS, the CPT after the implant operation in the right C-fiber(5 Hz) increased significantly; meanwhile, in case that the VAS mark was '0' before and after the operation, the CPT after the operation in the left $A{\beta}$-fiber(2000 Hz) increased significantly. This study suggested that the CPT measurements using $Neurometer^{(R)}$ CPT/C, provide useful information of objective and quantitative sensory disturbances for tooth implantation.

Recommendation and current status in exposure assessment using monitoring data in ship building industry - focused on the similar exposure group(SEG) (조선업의 작업환경측정결과를 이용한 노출평가의 문제점과 해결방향 - 유사노출군을 중심으로 -)

  • Roh, Youngman;Yim, Hyeon Woo;Kim, Suk Il;Park, Hyo Man;Jung, Jae Yeol;Park, Sook Kyung;Kim, Hyun-Wook;Chung, Chee Kyung;Lee, Won Chul;Kim, Jung Man;Kim, Soo Keun;Koh, Sang Baek;Karl, Sieber;Kim, Euna;Choi, Jung Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.126-134
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    • 2001
  • Statistical approaches for analysis of data from the limited number of samples in ship building industry(SBI) collected by an industrial hygienist for checking compliance to an occupational standard were considered. Sampling for compliance usually has been guided by judgment selection, rather than true randomness, resulting in the creation of compliance samples which approximate a censored sample from the upper tail of the exposure distribution. Similar exposure groups(SEGs) including welding and painting process were established to assess representative values in each groups after reviewing the whole production line in SBI. For the convenient statistical approaches, the code has assigned to each SEGs. The descriptive statistics and probability plotting were used to yield the representative values in each SEGs. In the first step, SEGs of 558 were established from 5 ship building companies. The 38 SEGs showed the uncertainty are divided into each 5 companies and assessed the representative values again. The 44 SEGs in each companies was not showed the normal and lognormal distribution was analyzed each data. And also, recommendation was suggested to resolve the uncertainty in each groups.

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Probabilistic Characteristics Analysis of Disturbed Function for Geosynthetic-Soil Interface Using Cyclic Shear Tests (동적전단시험을 이용한 토목섬유-흙 접촉면에 대한 교란도함수의 확률특성 분석)

  • Huh, Jungwon;Park, Innjoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2012
  • This paper mainly deals with the analysis of probabilistic characteristics of the disturbed function proposed to predict dynamic behavior of Geosynthetic-soil interface as the lining and cover systems used in waste landfills. Calibration and statistical property estimation of the parameters in the disturbed function model were first performed using many experimental data obtained from a new multi-purpose interface apparatus (M-PIA). In order to analyze the effect due to changes in chemical degradation and normal loads condition, probabilistic properties such as mean, coefficient of variation and distribution type of the disturbed function were evaluated using both the LHS method known to be a very efficient sampling scheme and the estimated statistical property of A and Z. As a result, variation of the disturbed function is found to range approximately from 10~28% according to the level of ${\xi}_D$ and Weibull appears to be the most adequate distribution type at almost all levels of ${\xi}_D$. It is concluded that a probabilistic safety assessment method for Geosynthetic-soil interface considering uncertainty in shear strength can be developed by utilizing probabilistic properties of the disturbed function obtained in this study.

Assessment of Nutritional Status in Elderly Dialysis Patients (노인 투석환자의 영양상태 평가)

  • 노유자;하혜정;고혜영;박옥순
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.304-319
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    • 1996
  • It is important to evaluate nutritional status of elderly patients receiving dialysis, since wasting and malnutrition are their common problems. This study aims at assessing their nutritional status by the type and duration of dialysis. The nutritional status such as somatic fat and protein storage was evaluated with anthropometric measure including weight/height ratio, triceps skinfold thickness and midarm muscle circumference. It was also measured with albumin, transferrin, C3 and IGF-1 and calorie and protein intakes. The general clinical condition of patients was evaluated with the severity of uremia and metabolic acidosis. which were measured through the levels of serum urea, creatinine and bicarbonateion. The data were analyzed by using t-test, ANOVA, Wilcoxon-rank sums test, Scheffe test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Pearson correlation coefficients. The results are following : 1. There was no significant difference in the calorie and protein intakes by the type and duration of dialysis received. 2. As for the anthropometric measures, no significant difference was found by the type of dialysis in body mass index triceps skinfold thickness and midarm muscle circumference. Yet these anthropometric measures differed significantly by the duration of dialysis in those elderly patients receiving hemodialysis(HD group), but this finding was not found in those receiving continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis(CAPD). 3. Regarding the indicators of uremia and metabolic acidosis, blood urea nitrogen(BUN) and creatinine were lower in the CAPD group than in the HD group, whereas bicarbonate ion was higher in the CAPD group than in the HD group, with no statistical significance. In the HD group, creatinine increased significantly with the increase of the duration of dialysis. 4. Serum trasferrin and C3 were significantly higher in the CAPD group than in the HD group. However. each of biochemical indices did not show statistical significance by the duration of dialysis in both HD and CAPD groups. 5. Anthropometric measures were significantly associated with dietary intake. Significant correlations were observed between biocarbonate ion, BUN and creatinine. In addition, the correlations between serum protein and albumin and between transferrin and C3 were statistically significant. Yet, IGF-1 revealed no significant correlation with other nutritional indices. The above findings indicate that there were no difference in nutritional status measured with protein and calorie intakes between the type and duration of dialysis, but CAPD seems to benefit correcting uremia and metabolic acidosis than HD. Studies of dietary management for dialysis patients need to be pursued in order to improved the quality of aged patients receiving dialysis.

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A Study on the Related Factors of Skipping Breakfast in Elementary Students (초등학생 아침결식 실태 및 관련요인)

  • Bang, You-Mi;Lee, Moo-Sik;Na, Baek-Ju;Kim, Keon-Yeop
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to investigate the determining factors that have influence on elementary students who go without breakfast and identified their physical, mental and social health that may resulted by skipping breakfast. Methods: For data collection, total 855 elementary students at the 5th and 6th grade in an urban and a rural area were asked to join the survey using a self-administered questionnaire from March 25 to April 9, 2005. The data were analyzed through a series of statistical methods including frequency, percentage, chi-square$(X^2)$ test, t-test and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: It was found that 24.0 % of respondents would skip breakfast, and influential socioeconomic factors on their skipped breakfast were economic level and mother's occupation. A group that has meals more with family everyday and a group that has breakfast served by mother as usual showed significantly low percentage of going without breakfast at statistical level(p<0.05). In case that other family members used to go without breakfast, there was a tendency to significantly high rate of skipped breakfast(p<0.01). And a group who got up early in the morning and a group who scored high points in the assessment of dietary habit showed significantly low percentage of skipped breakfast(p<0.01). In the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the significant variables in urban area were economic level, person setting up breakfast, getting-up time and family members who would skip a meal. In rural area, meal-skipping family member, person setting up breakfast and dietary habit were significant variables(p<0.05). In physical influences according to skipping breakfast, students would skip breakfast had more stomach or dizziness(p<0.05). Depression score were higher and school life score were lower in group skipping breakfast, but not statistically significant. Conclusions: In conclusion, in order to reduce the rate of elementary students who often go without breakfast, it is favorable that they should be instructed in the importance of breakfast and the harm of skipped meal, so that they can cultivate positive living habits and dietary attitudes as well. And it is necessary that this health education cover not only students but also all of their family members(especially mother). Furthermore, it is necessary to develop systematic programs for them to get over environment factors.

Development and validation of Accident Modification Factors of Two-Lane Rural Roadways (지방부 2차로 도로의 사고예측계수 개발 및 검증)

  • Kim, Eung-Cheol;Choe, Eun-Jin;Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Do-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2010
  • This study has aimed to develop accident modification factor(AMF) for rural two-lane roadway segments. Accident Modification Factor is a coefficient to assess roadway safety as reflecting characteristics of homogeneous roadway. It estimates accident frequency of roadway segments with developed base model and exposure. We found on items of such factors as crosswalk, driveway density, topography characteristic, land use and median through statistical models and literature review. To develop accident modification factors, we used statistical model methods and analyses of applicability and expert judgement method were practiced to validate it. Although expert judgement for land use item was questionable, most items were rated acceptable. Result of comparative analysis revealed crash frequencies of IHSDM and KHSEM were most similar with actual. However, accident distribution of KHSEM was more proper than IHSDM. Also overall estimated values of RSDS were found to be overestimated.

Assessment on Environmental Characteristics of Organic Paddy and Conventional Paddy by Comparing Their Soil Properties and Water Quality (토양 및 수질 특성 비교를 통한 유기논과 관행논의 환경 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Tae-Gu;Gu, Bon-Wun;Park, Seong-Jik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.38 no.9
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    • pp.504-512
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we investigated the environmental impact of organic and conventional paddy by monitoring soil properties and water quality. We sampled and analyzed topsoil (0~15 cm), subsoil (15~30 cm), and water of organic and conventional paddy fields in Yongin and Anseong, South Korea. The statistical significance between groups was determined by Duncan's multiple range test. The results show that T-P concentrations in both topsoil and subsoil of Anseong paddy were higher than those of Yongin paddy. The significant difference of T-P between organic and conventional paddy was observed in Anseong but not in Yongin. T-N of organic paddy soil was lower than that of conventional paddy in both Anseong and Yongin region. Water content for subsoil of organic paddy in Anseong was significantly different from others, which is consistent with the results of silt-clay content. pH and EC of water in conventional paddy were higher than those in organic paddy. In Anseong, COD, T-P, and $PO_4-P$ concentration of conventional paddy were higher than those of organic paddy. The regression analysis presented that there were no significant relationship between soil properties and water quality data except T-N.

THE ASSESSMENT OF ABUTMENT SCREW STABILITY BETWEEN THE EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL HEXAGONAL JOINT UNDER CYCLIC LOADING

  • Lee, Tae-Sik;Han, Jung-Suk;Yang, Jae-Ho;Lee, Jae-Bong;Kim, Sung-Hun
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 2008
  • STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: Currently, many implant systems are developed and divided into two types according to their joint connection: external or internal connection. Regardless of the connection type, screw loosening is the biggest problem in implant-supported restoration. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to assess the difference in stability of abutment screws between the external and internal hexagonal connection types under cyclic loading. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Each of the 15 samples of external implants and internal abutments were tightened to 30 N/cm with a digital torque gauge, and cemented with a hemispherical metal cap. Each unit was then mounted in a $30^{\circ}$ inclined jig. Then each group was divided into 2 sub-groups based on different periods of cyclic loading with the loading machine (30 N/ cm - 300 N/cm,14 Hz: first group $1{\times}10^6$, $5{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading; second group $3{\times}10^6$, $3{\times}10^6$ for a total cyclic loading of $6{\times}10^6$) The removal torque value of the screw before and after cyclic loading was checked. SPSS statistical software for Windows was used for statistical analysis. Group means were calculated and compared by ANOVA, independent t-test, and paired t-test with ${\alpha}$=0.05. RESULTS: In the external hexagonal connection, the difference between the removal torque value of the abutment screw before loading, the value after $1{\tims}10^6$ cyclic loading, and the value after $1{\times}10^6$, and additional $5{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading was not significant. The difference between the removal torque value after $3{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading and after $3{\times}10^6$, and additional $3{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading was not significant. In the internal hexagonal connection, the difference between the removal torque value before loading and the value after $1{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading was not significant, but the value after $1{\times}10^6$, and additional $5{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading was reduced and the difference was significant (P < .05). In addition, in the internal hexagonal connection, the difference between the removal torque value after $3{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading and the value after $3{\times}10^6$, and additional $3{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading was not significant. CONCLUSION: The external hexagonal connection was more stable than the internal hexagonal connection after $1{\times}10^6$, and additional $5{\times}10^6$ cyclic loading (t = 10.834, P < .001). There was no significant difference between the two systems after $3{\times}10^6$, and additional $3{\times}10^6$ cycles.

Validity of Voice Handicap Index and Voice Analysis following Laryngeal Microsurgery for Benign Vocal Cord Lesions (양성 성대 질환 환자의 후두 미세 수술 전후 음성 장애 지수 및 음성 분석의 유용성)

  • Park, Young-Hak;Lee, Jeong-Hak;Joo, Young-Hoon;Park, Sung-Sin;Bang, Choong-Il;Kim, Min-Sik;Cho, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.23-27
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    • 2005
  • Background and Objectives : Voice disorders can cause problems in patients with benign vocal cord lesions emotionally, physically, economically and functionally. Neither subjective nor objective voice examinations can evaluate such factors adequately. The Voice Handicap Index (VHI) subjectively evaluates voice disorders in terms of physical, functional, emotional factors and measures the patient's perception of the impact of voice disorder. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of VHI in the patients with benign vocal cord lesions. Materials and Method : The authors evaluated 37 patients who experienced laryngeal microsurgery for benign vocal cord lesions from september 2003 to August 2004. The VHI was used to measure the postoperative changes of the patient's perception and acoustic analysis and aerodynamic tests were also done. Statistical analysis was done using paired t-test and Pearson's correlation. Results : The VHI scores showed statistically significant reductions postoperatively. In acoustic analysis, jitter and shimmer had statistically significant reductions after surgery but noise-to-harmonics ratio did not. A statistically significant change in the average MFR and MPT perioperatively was found. The relationship between VHI and acoustic, aerodynamic analysis attained statistical significance. Conclusion : The VHI is a useful assessment tool to monitor the patient's self-perception of voice change after the surgery of benign vocal cord lesions. The VHI measurement, when combined with acoustic and aerodynamic analyses, will be helpful in comparing functional outcomes after voice surgery.

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