• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical and regression vulnerability model

Search Result 4, Processing Time 0.02 seconds

Assessment of seismic damage inspection and empirical vulnerability probability matrices for masonry structure

  • Li, Si-Qi;Chen, Yong-Sheng;Liu, Hong-Bo;Du, Ke;Chi, Bo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.387-399
    • /
    • 2022
  • To study the seismic damage of masonry structures and understand the characteristics of the multi-intensity region, according to the Dujiang weir urbanization of China Wenchuan earthquake, the deterioration of 3991 masonry structures was summarized and statistically analysed. First, the seismic damage of multistory masonry structures in this area was investigated. The primary seismic damage of components was as follows: Damage of walls, openings, joints of longitudinal and transverse walls, windows (lower) walls, and tie columns. Many masonry structures with seismic designs were basically intact. Second, according to the main factors of construction, seismic intensity code levels survey, and influence on the seismic capacity, a vulnerability matrix calculation model was proposed to establish a vulnerability prediction matrix, and a comparative analysis was made based on the empirical seismic damage investigation matrix. The vulnerability prediction matrix was established using the proposed vulnerability matrix calculation model. The fitting relationship between the vulnerability prediction matrix and the actual seismic damage investigation matrix was compared and analysed. The relationship curves of the mean damage index for macrointensity and ground motion parameters were drawn through calculation and analysis, respectively. The numerical analysis was performed based on actual ground motion observation records, and fitting models of PGA, PGV, and MSDI were proposed.

Social Vulnerability Assessment by Resident's Conflict Analysis on Rural Development Project of Region Unit (권역단위사업에서 주민 갈등 분석에 의한 사회적 취약성 평가)

  • Rhee, Shin Ho;Min, Heung Gi;Yoon, Sung Soo;Jung, Nam Su;Chang, Woo Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.77-87
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, we try to quantify resident's conflict by rural development project based on previous researches about community capacities required for residents and social networks in rural village for suggesting efficient project model. we analyzed conflict elements in six category such as 'conflict in residents', 'conflict in residents and leaders', 'conflict in leaders', 'conflict in villages', 'conflict in development fund', 'conflict in village by common income project'. These results also analyzed by personal background(age, role, education, income) of respondent in questionary survey. Results show that 'conflict in residents and leaders', 'conflict in leaders', 'conflict in development fund' are perceived differently by age, role, education, and income in 5% significance level. Especially, relatively young age(below 40 years old) expressed clearly about conflict and high scored in item of 'residents and leaders'. Regression model show statistical significance(F=39.807, P=0.000) in influence relation analysis of conflict, network, leadership, and project fund. In this model, network ${\beta}=-0.237$, leadership ${\beta}=-0.375$, project fund ${\beta}=-0.000$ show network and leadership have negative relation to conflict but project fund is difficult to find relation with conflict. In this study, we defined social vulnerability using conflict, network, and leadership and verified the vulnerability of rural village applying regional community capacity in analysis results; vulnerability increased by the size of region and show inverse correlation to future vision of residents.

Closed-form fragility analysis of the steel moment resisting frames

  • Kia, M.;Banazadeh, M.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.93-107
    • /
    • 2016
  • Seismic fragility analysis is a probabilistic decision-making framework which is widely implemented for evaluating vulnerability of a building under earthquake loading. It requires ingredient named probabilistic model and commonly developed using statistics requiring collecting data in large quantities. Preparation of such a data-base is often costly and time-consuming. Therefore, in this paper, by developing generic seismic drift demand model for regular-multi-story steel moment resisting frames is tried to present a novel application of the probabilistic decision-making analysis to practical purposes. To this end, a demand model which is a linear function of intensity measure in logarithmic space is developed to predict overall maximum inter-story drift. Next, the model is coupled with a set of regression-based equations which are capable of directly estimating unknown statistical characteristics of the model parameters.To explicitly address uncertainties arise from randomness and lack of knowledge, the Bayesian regression inference is employed, when these relations are developed. The developed demand model is then employed in a Seismic Fragility Analysis (SFA) for two designed building. The accuracy of the results is also assessed by comparison with the results directly obtained from Incremental Dynamic analysis.

Application of a Statistical Interpolation Method to Correct Extreme Values in High-Resolution Gridded Climate Variables (고해상도 격자 기후자료 내 이상 기후변수 수정을 위한 통계적 보간법 적용)

  • Jeong, Yeo min;Eum, Hyung-Il
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.6 no.4
    • /
    • pp.331-344
    • /
    • 2015
  • A long-term gridded historical data at 3 km spatial resolution has been generated for practical regional applications such as hydrologic modelling. However, overly high or low values have been found at some grid points where complex topography or sparse observational network exist. In this study, the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method was applied to properly smooth the overly predicted values of Improved GIS-based Regression Model (IGISRM), called the IDW-IGISRM grid data, at the same resolution for daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 2001 to 2010 over South Korea. We tested various effective distances in the IDW method to detect an optimal distance that provides the highest performance. IDW-IGISRM was compared with IGISRM to evaluate the effectiveness of IDW-IGISRM with regard to spatial patterns, and quantitative performance metrics over 243 AWS observational points and four selected stations showing the largest biases. Regarding the spatial pattern, IDW-IGISRM reduced irrational overly predicted values, i. e. producing smoother spatial maps that IGISRM for all variables. In addition, all quantitative performance metrics were improved by IDW-IGISRM; correlation coefficient (CC), Index Of Agreement (IOA) increase up to 11.2% and 2.0%, respectively. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were also reduced up to 5.4% and 15.2% respectively. At the selected four stations, this study demonstrated that the improvement was more considerable. These results indicate that IDW-IGISRM can improve the predictive performance of IGISRM, consequently providing more reliable high-resolution gridded data for assessment, adaptation, and vulnerability studies of climate change impacts.