• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.8
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• pp.51-59
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• 2020

The objective of this study is to enrich the literature by investigating the impact of introduction of index future trading on spot market returns and trading volume in Vietnam. Data used in this study mainly consist of daily VN30-Index and market trading volume series during the period from February 6^th, 2012 to December 31^st, 2019. Using OLS, GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, the empirical findings consistently confirm that the introduction of index future trading has no impact on the spot market returns. In addition, the results of the EGARCH(1,1) model indicate that the leverage effect on the spot market volatility is existence in HOSE. Specifically, bad news has a greater effect on the market volatility than good news of the same size. Moreover, our empirical findings reveal that the introduction of index future contracts has the positive impact on the underlying market trading volume. Specifically, the trading volume of the post-index futures introduction increases by 7.5 percent compared with the pre-index futures introduction. Finally, the results obtained from the Granger causality test for the relationship between the spot market returns and the future trading activity confirm that only uni-directional causality running from the market returns to the future trading activity exists in HOSE.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.76-84
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• 2024

This study constructed a VAR model with cotton futures and spot price data from April 30, 2009 to November 16, 2022, for empirical analysis utilizing the Granger causality test to analyze the dynamic relationship between cotton futures and spot market prices in China. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis showed that the cotton spot prices at flowering have a causal relationship with each other; in terms of mutual influence and impact, futures prices are higher than spot prices. Finally, it proposed countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of establishing a standardized cotton spot market, improving the laws and regulations of the cotton futures market and trading system, and optimizing the structure of investment subjects.

• Culinary science and hospitality research
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.126-134
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper was to examine the dynamics of the price discovery function between lean hog futures and spot markets using the vector error correction model (VECM). The researcher also investigated the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the lean hog futures and spot markets. Daily time series data of lean hog futures and spot observed in the Korean market during the period from 5 Jan. 2011 to 28 Dec. 2012 were analyzed. To examine the price discovery, this study employed the Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) information ratio and Hasbrock's (1995) information ratio measurement method. The significant findings of the study are summarized as follows. First, lean hog futures and spot market are significantly correlated. Secondly, the lean hog future market plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the spot market. Finally, price discovery measures based on the VECM suggested that the lean hog future market plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the lean hog spot market. This is the important systematic empirical work to find the relationship between the lean hog future and spot market.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.333-341
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• 2004

This paper describes not only the complexities of LNG business including shipping sector but also its own current environmental changes. Furthermore, system dynamics (VENSIM analysis) as a methodology is introduced to analyze the potential LNG shipping market in the future. As a result of the VENSIM analysis, potentiality of the spot LNG shipping market is systematically established in connection with embodiment of the spot LNG market. This paper suggests three methods, which are centered on newbuildings of ships, for the shippers to prepare for the spot LNG shipping market on the basis that maritime economics can make a direct contribution to the shippers' business decision-making.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.99-119
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• 2010

This study explores the natural gas market and the oil market in the U.S. and the European oil market. It focuses on two kinds of analyses; one is to confirm whether there is the predictive power between spot and futures within homogeneous commodity market(or inter-heterogeneous commodity market) through Granger-causality test in terms of the return rate and the volatility. The other is to examine the spot price stabilizing effect of futures price through regression analysis. When it comes to the predictive power of inter-commodity market, there was a conflicting aspect between the return rate of spot and futures. Overall, however, its statistical significance was low. With respect to the volatility, we found that the natural gas market has little influence on the oil market unlike the predictive power of oil market on natural gas market. Concerning the return rate of the predictive power within homogeneous commodity market, we found that the return rate of spot has the predictive power on futures only in the European market. In addition, we identified that there is feedback between spot and futures in the all commodity markets regarding volatility. As a result of the spot price stabilizing effect analysis of futures price, futures volatility increased the spot volatility.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.385-393
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• 2004

This paper describes not only the complexities of LNG business including shipping sector but also its own current environmental changes. Furthermore, system dynamics (VENSIM analysis) as a methodology is introduced to analyze the potential LNG shipping market in the future. As a result of the VENSIM analysis, potentiality of the spot LNG shipping market is systematically established in connection with embodiment of the spot LNG market. This paper suggests three methods, which are centered on newbuildings of ships, for the shippers to prepare for the spot LNG shipping market on the basis that maritime economics can make a direct contribution to the shippers' business decision-making.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.257-275
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• 2011

The price relationship between the futures market and the underlying spot market has attracted the attention of academics, practitioners, and regulators due to their roles during periods of turbulence in financial markets. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic of price relationship(or lead-lag relationship) between Korean Treasury Bond futures market and spot market. To examine the nature of the price relationship, descriptive statistics, serial correlation, and cross-correlation are used as a preliminary statistics in the Korean Treasury Bond spot and futures market. Next, following Stoll-Whaley(1990) and Chan(1992), the multiple regression method is used to examine the lead-lag patterns between the two markets. The empirical results are summarized as follows. The mean returns of spot markets and future markets are positive(+) and negative(-) respectively and the standard deviation of both stock and futures returns increase through the sub-periods. For the most periods, there is negative skewness in the both markets. The zero excess kurtosis due to the heavy tails of the distribution are relatively large. The autocorrelations in the spot returns for the sample periods are positive in time lag 1, but the autocorrelations in the future returns shows no significant evidence. The results of the daily cross-correlations between the KTB spot and futures returns indicate that a lead-lag relationship don't exist for price changes of futures and spot markets as a preliminary analysis. Finally, empirical results of regression analysis for both market indicate that there is no evidence that the KTB futures lead the KTB spot market, or the KTB spot market lead the KTB futures market. These results are robust for all sub-periods.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.103-120
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• 2022

This paper studies the possibility of options as an instrument for central bank to intervene foreign exchange market. As opposed to spot transaction or forward transaction, which impacts spot exchange rate only once, currency options can continuously resist a directional speculative pressure on spot market due to the dynamic delta hedging of OTC currency options market maker. This research also analyzes whether and how central banks can use currency options to lower exchange rate volatility and maintain (implicit) target zones in foreign exchange markets. It argues that short position rather than long position in options will result in market makers dynamically hedging their long option exposure in a stabilizing manner, consistent with the first objective. Selling a "Strangle" allows a central bank to increase the credibility of its commitment to a target zone, and could have a lower expected cost than spot market interventions. However, this strategy also exposes the central bank to an unlimited loss potential. Therefore these kinds of intervention strategies must be used in the short run and temporarily.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.287-300
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• 2013

In this paper, price discovery between spot and futures in crude oil markets investigated using the Gonzalo and Granger and Hasbrouck common-factor models. The main findings are as follows. 1) Crude oil futures and spot market are cointegrated. 2) Following the preceding studies, we judged that Dubai(WTI) futures markets contribute to the price discovery process than Dubai(WTI) spot market when this Gonzalo-Granger and Hasbrouck information ratio for Dubai(WTI) market are larger than 0.5. In other words, the futures markets of Dubai and WTI plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the spot market. 3) But Brent futures market does not contribute to the price discovery process.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2010

This paper tested the lead-lag relationship as well as the symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between international currency futures markets and cash markets. We use five kinds of currency spot and futures markets such as British pound, Australian and Canadian dollar, Brasilian Real and won/dollar spot and futures markets. daily closing prices covering from September 15, 2003 to July 30, 2009. For this purpose we employed dynamic time series models such as the Granger causality based on VAR and time-varying MA(1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The main empirical results are as follows; First, according to Granger causality test, we find that the bilateral lead-lag relationship between the five countries' currency spot and futures market. The price discover effect from currency futures markets to spot market is relatively stronger than that from currency spot to futures markets. Second, based on the time varying GARCH model, we find that there is a bilateral conditional mean spillover effects between the five currency spot and futures markets. Third, we also find that there is a bilateral asymmetric volatility spillover effects between British pound, Canadian dollar, Brasilian Real and won/dollar spot and futures market. However there is a unilateral asymmetric volatility spillover effect from Australian dollar futures to cash market, not vice versa. From these empirical results we infer that most of currency futures markets have a much better price discovery function than currency cash market and are inefficient to the information.