• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.88.2-88.2
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• 2012

We investigate solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability depending on McIntosh sunspot classification, its area, and its area change. For this we use the NOAA active region and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 10 sunspot classification: 'Dko', 'Dai', 'Eai', 'Fai', 'Dki', 'Dkc', 'Eki', 'Ekc', 'Fki', and 'Fkc'. Sunspot area and its change can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. we classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups: 'Large' and 'Small'. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot group area change: 'Decrease', 'Steady', and 'Increase'. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the 'Increase' sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the 'Increase' sub-group is three times higher than that of the 'Steady' sub-group. Mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot regions increase with the following order: 'Steady', 'Decrease', and 'Increase'. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance major solar flare occurrence. We are going to forecast solar flares based on these results and NOAA scale.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.126.2-126.2
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• 2012

최근 태양 극대기를 맞아 우주기상의 변화에 대처하기 위한 연구가 많이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서도 저 중위도 이온권 모델인 SAMI2와 SAMI3를 이용하여 solar flare 발생에 따른 이온권의 변화를 지켜보고자 하였다. 하지만 SAMI 모델에서는 F74113 Solar EUV reference spectrum을 이용하여 EUV flux에 의한 이온화만 고려되었을 뿐, X-ray flux에 의한 이온화는 고려되지 않았다. 태양 극대기동안 solar flare가 발생하였을 때, solar X-ray가 전리층에 미치는 영향이 매우 중요한만큼 solar X-ray에 의한 이온권의 변화를 적용시킬 필요가 있었다. 따라서 우리는 보다 정확한 solar flare 발생에 따른 이온권의 변화를 보기 위해 $1{\AA}{\sim}8{\AA}$범위의 X-ray관측자료를 제공하는 GOES 위성의 데이터를 직접 이용하고, 해당하는 파장의 cross section을 추가하여 SAMI 모델에 적용시켰다. solar flare 효과를 선택적으로 활용하는 개정된 SAMI 모델을 통해 각 flare 등급과 지속시간에 따른 이온권의 변화를 모델로써 확인하였다.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.98-98
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• 2011

We have investigated solar flare probability depending on sunspot classification, its area, and its area change using solar white light data. For this we used the McIntosh sunspot groups with most flare-productive regions : DKI, DKC, EKI, EKC, FKI and FKC. For each group, we classified it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area change : increase, steady, and decrease. For sunspot data, we used the NOAA active region information for 11 years (from January 2000 to December 2010): daily sunspot class and its area corrected for the projection effect. As a result, we find that the mean flare rates and the flare probabilities for the "increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'kc' groups, the mean flare rates of the "increase" sub-groups are more than two times than those of the "steady" sub-groups. This is statistical evidence that magnetic flux emergence is an very important for triggering solar flares since sunspot area increase can be a good proxy of magnetic flux emergence. In addition, we have examined the relationship between sunspot area and solar flare probability. For this, we classified each sunspot group into two sub-groups: large and small. In the case of compact group, the solar flare probabilities noticeably increase with its area.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.63.2-63.2
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• 2015

Solar flare is one of the energetic phenomena observed on the Sun, and it is often accompanied with eruptions such as global-scale eruption of a flux rope (filament/prominence eruption) and small-scale eruption of a plasmoid. A flare itself is a dissipative phenomenon where accumulated electric current representing free magnetic energy is dissipated quickly at a special location called a current sheet formed in a generally highly conductive solar corona. Previous studies have demonstrated how a solar magnetic field placed on the Sun forms a current sheet when magnetic shear is added to the field. Our study is focused on a self-consistent process of how a subsurface magnetic field emerges into the solar atmosphere and forms a current sheet in the corona. This study also gives light to a relation among a flare and two types of flare-associated eruptions; flux-rope eruption and plasmoid eruption.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2014

We investigate the solar flare and CME occurrence rate and probability depending on sunspot class and its area change. These CMEs are front-side, partial and full halo CMEs associated with X-ray flares. For this we use the Solar Region Summary(SRS) from NOAA, NGDC flare catalog, and SOHO/LASCO CME catalog for 16 years (from January 1996 to December 2011). We classify each sunspot class into two sub-groups: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each class, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot class area change: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". In terms of sunspot class area, the solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities noticeably increase at compact and large sunspot groups (e.g., 'Fkc'). In terms of sunspot area change, solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. For example, in case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' class, the flare occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. In case of the 'Eai' class, the CME occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-groups is five time higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results demonstrate statistically that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance solar flare and CME occurrence, especially for compact and large sunspot groups.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.26.1-26.1
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• 2010

In this talk we outline the current understanding of solar flares, mainly focusing on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. A flare causes plasma heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration which generates high-energy particles. The key physical processes producing a flare are: the emergence of magnetic field from the solar interior to the solar atmosphere (flux emergence), formation of current-concentrated areas (current sheets) in the corona, and magnetic reconnection proceeding in a current sheet to cause shock heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration. A flare starts with the dissipation of electric currents in the corona, followed by various dynamic processes that affect lower atmosphere such as the chromosphere and photosphere. In order to understand the physical mechanism for producing a flare, theoretical modeling has been develops, where numerical simulation is a strong tool in that it can reproduce the time-dependent, nonlinear evolution of a flare. In this talk we review various models of a flare proposed so far, explaining key features of individual models. We introduce the general properties of flares by referring observational results, then discuss the processes of energy build-up, release, and transport, all of which are responsible for a flare. We will come to a concluding viewpoint that flares are the manifestation of the recovering and ejecting processes of a global magnetic flux tube in the solar atmosphere, which has been disrupted via interaction with convective plasma while rising through the convection zone.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.25.1-25.1
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• 2010

This talk outlines the current understanding of solar flares, mainly focusing on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. A flare causes plasma heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration that generates high-energy particles. The key physical processes related to a flare are: the emergence of magnetic field from the solar interior to the solar atmosphere (flux emergence), formation of current-concentrated areas (current sheets) in the corona, and magnetic reconnection proceeding in current sheets that causes shock heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration. A flare starts with the dissipation of electric currents in the corona, followed by various dynamic processes which affect lower atmospheres such as the chromosphere and photosphere. In order to understand the physical mechanism for producing a flare, theoretical modeling has been developed, in which numerical simulation is a strong tool reproducing the time-dependent, nonlinear evolution of plasma before and after the onset of a flare. In this talk we review various models of a flare proposed so far, explaining key features of these models. We show observed properties of flares, and then discuss the processes of energy build-up, release, and transport, all of which are responsible for producing a flare. We come to a concluding view that flares are the manifestation of recovering and ejecting processes of a global magnetic flux tube in the solar atmosphere, which was disrupted via interaction with convective plasma while it was rising through the convection zone.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.spc1
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• pp.49-54
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• 2003

We introduce the two-dimensional spectral observations of solar flares using the Solar Tower Tele-scope of Nanjing University, China. In particular, we introduce three typical events and the methods used to analyze the data. (1) The flare of November 11, 1998, which is a limb flare. We derive the temperature and density within the flaring loop using non-LTE calculations. The results show that the loop top may be hotter and denser than other parts of the loop, which may be a result of magnetic reconnect ion above the loop. (2) The flare of March 10, 2001, which is a white-light flare that shows an emission enhancement at the near infrared continuum. We propose a model of non-thermal electron beam heating plus backwarming to interpret the observations. (3) The flare of September 29, 2002, which shows unusual line asymmetries at one flare kernel. The line asymmetries are caused by an upward moving plasma that is accelerated and heated during the flare development.

• Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.263-277
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• 1996

We have intensively carried out numerical calculations on flare predictions from the solar activity data for photospheric sunspots, chromospheric flare and plages, coronal X-ray intensities and 2800MHz radio fluxes, by using multilinear regression method. Intensities of solar flares for the next day have been predicted from the solar data between 1977-1982 and 1993-1996. Firstly, we have calculated flare predictions with the multilinear regression method, by using separate solar data in growth and decay phase of sunspot area and magnetic field strength from the whole data on solar activities. Secondly, the same operations as above have been made for the remaining data after removal of the data with large deviation from the mean calculated by the above prediction method. we have reached a conclusion that average hit ratio of correct predictions to total predictions of flares with class of M5 over has been as high as 70% for the first case and that of correct prediction number to total observation number has been shown as 61%.