• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.201-201
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• 2016

The asymptotic extreme value distributions of maxima are a natural choice when designing against future extreme events like flood peaks or wave heights, given a stationary time series. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is often utilised in this context because it is seen as a convenient single expression for extreme event analysis. However, the GEV has a drawback because the location of the distribution bound relative to the data is a discontinuous function of the GEV shape parameter. That is, for annual maxima approximated by the Gumbel distribution, the data is also consistent with a GEV distribution with an upper bound (no lower bound) or a GEV distribution with a lower bound (no upper bound). A more consistent single extreme value expression for design purposes is proposed as the Weibull distribution of smallest extremes, as applied to transformed annual maxima. The Weibull distribution limit holds here for sufficiently large sample sizes, irrespective of the extreme value domain of attraction applicable to the untransformed maxima. The Gumbel, Type 2, and Type 3 extreme value distributions thus become redundant, together with the GEV, because in reality there is only a single asymptotic extreme value distribution required for design purposes - the Weibull distribution of minima as applied to transformed maxima. An illustrative synthetic example is given showing transformed maxima from the normal distribution approaching the Weibull limit much faster than the untransformed sample maxima approach the normal distribution Gumbel limit. Some New Zealand examples are given with the Weibull distribution being applied to reciprocal transformations of annual flood maxima, where the untransformed maxima follow apparently different extreme value distributions.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.547-559
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• 2023

We evaluated the applicability of machine learning techniques and the Kuz-Ram model for predicting the mean fragmentation size in open-pit mines. The characteristics of the in-situ rock considered here were uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, rock factor, and mean in-situ block size. Seventy field datasets that included these characteristics were collected to predict the mean fragmentation size. Deep neural network, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were trained using the data. The performance was evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (r²). The XGBoost model had the smallest RMSE and the highest r² value compared with the other models. Additionally, when analyzing the error rate between the measured and predicted values, XGBoost had the lowest error rate. When the Kuz-Ram model was applied, low accuracy was observed owing to the differences in the characteristics of data used for model development. Consequently, the proposed XGBoost model predicted the mean fragmentation size more accurately than other models. If its performance is improved by securing sufficient data in the future, it will be useful for improving the blasting efficiency at the target site.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.153-173
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• 2007

Wood-plastic composites (WPC) are gaining market share in the building industry because of durability/maintenance advantages of WPC over traditional wood products and because of the removal of chromated copper arsenate (CCA) pressure-treated wood from the market. In order to ensure continued market share growth, WPC manufacturers need greater focus on reliability, quality, and cost. The reliability methods outlined in this paper can be used to improve the quality of WPC and lower manufacturing costs by reducing raw material inputs and minimizing WPC waste. Statistical methods are described for analyzing stiffness (tangent modulus of elasticity: MOE) and flexural strength (modulus of rupture: MOR) test results on sampled WPC panels. Descriptive statistics, graphs, and reliability plots from these test data are presented and interpreted. Sources of variability in the MOE and MOR of WPC are suggested. The methods outlined may directly benefit WPC manufacturers through a better understanding of strength and stiffness measures, which can lead to process improvements and, ultimately, a superior WPC product with improved reliability, thereby creating greater customer satisfaction.