• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.351-358
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• 1999

The structural responses of underground structures are examined in probability by using the elasto-plastic stochastic finite element method in which the spatial distributions of material properties are assumed to be stochastic fields. In addition, the adaptive importance sampling method using the response surface technique is used to improve simulation efficiency. The method is found to provide appropriate information although the nonlinear Limit State involves a large number of basic random variables and the failure probability is small. The probability of plastic local failures around an excavated area is effectively evaluated and the reliability for the limit displacement of the ground is investigated. It is demonstrated that the adaptive importance sampling method can be very efficiently used to evaluate the reliability of a large scale stochastic finite element model, such as the underground structures located in the multi-layered ground.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.491-501
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• 2021

This paper aims to evaluate the mechanical integrity for Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) cladding under lateral loads during transportation. The evaluation process requires a conservative consideration of the degradation conditions of SNF cladding, especially the hydride effect, which reduces the ductility of the cladding. The dynamic forces occurring during the drop event are pinch force, axial force and bending moment. Among those forces, axial force and bending moment can induce transverse tearing of cladding. Our assessment of 14 × 14 PWR SNF was performed using finite element analysis considering SNF characteristics. We also considered the probabilistic procedures with a Monte Carlo method and a reliability evaluation. The evaluation results revealed that there was no probability of damage under normal conditions, and that under accident conditions the probability was small for transverse failure mode.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.342-357
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• 2014

The present study analyzes the relationship between research and development (R&D) inputs and performance of a national technology innovation R&D program using successive binary Logistic regression models based on a typical R&D logic model. In particular, this study focuses on to answer the following three main questions; (1) "To what extent, do the R&D inputs have an effect on the performance creation?"; (2) "Is an obvious relationship verified between the immediate predecessor and its successor performance?"; and (3) "Is there a difference in the performance creation between R&D government subsidy recipient types and between R&D collaboration types?" Methodologically, binary Logistic regression models are established successively considering the "Success-Failure" binary data characteristic regarding the performance creation. An empirical analysis is presented analyzing the sample n = 2,178 R&D projects completed. This study's major findings are as follows. First, the R&D inputs have a statistically significant relationship only with the short-term, technical output, "Patent Registration." Second, strong dependencies are identified between the immediate predecessor and its successor performance. Third, the success probability of the performance creation is statistically significantly different between the R&D types aforementioned. Specifically, compared with "Large Company", "Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SMS)" shows a greater success probability of "Sales" and "New Employment." Meanwhile, "R&D Collaboration" achieves a larger success probability of "Patent Registration" and "Sales."

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.591-602
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• 2007

The results of Reactivity-Initiated Accidents (RIA) experiments have been analysed and the main variables affecting the fuel failure propensity identified. Fuel burn-up aggravates the mechanical loading of the cladding, while corrosion, or better the hydrogen absorbed in the cladding as a consequence of corrosion, may under some conditions make the cladding brittle and more susceptible to failure. Experiments point out that corrosion impairs the fuel resistance for RIA transient occurring at cold conditions, whereas there is no evidence of important embrittlement effects at hot conditions, unless the cladding was degraded by oxide spalling. A fuel failure threshold correlation has been derived and compared with experimental data relevant for BWR and PWR fuel. The correlation can be applied to both cold and hot RIA transients, account taken for the lower ductility at cold conditions and for the different initial enthalpy. It can also be used for non-zero power transients, provided that a term accounting for the start-up power is incorporated. The proposed threshold is easy to use and reproduces the results obtained in the CABRI and NSRR tests in a rather satisfactory manner. The behaviour of advanced PWR alloys and of MOX fuel is discussed in light of the correlation predictions. Finally, a probabilistic approach has been developed in order to account for the small scatter of the failure predictions. This approach completes the RIA failure assessment in that after determining a best estimate failure threshold, a failure probability is inferred based on the spreading of data around the calculated best estimate value.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.52 no.7
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• pp.401-406
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• 2003

Electric power industries in several countries are currently undergoing major changes, mainly represented by the privatizations of the power plants and distribution systems. Reliable operations of the power plants directly contribute to the revenue increases of the generation companies in such competitive environments. Strategic optimizations should be performed between the levels of the reliabilities to be maintained and the various preventive maintenance costs, which require the accurate estimations of the power plant reliabilities. However, accurate estimations of the power plant reliabilities are often limited by the lack of accurate power plant failure data. A power plant is not supposed to be failed that often. And if it fails, its impact upon the power system stability is quite substantial in most cases, setting aside the significant revenue losses and lowered company images. Reliability assessment is also important for Independent System Operators(ISO) or Market Operators to properly assess the level of needed compensations for the installed capacity based on the availability of the generation plants. In this paper, we present a power plant reliability estimation technique that can be applied when the failure data is insufficient. Median rank and Weibull distribution are used to accommodate such insufficiency. The Median rank is utilized to derive the cumulative failure probability for each ordered failure. The Weibull distribution is used because of its flexibility of accommodating several different distribution types based on the shape parameter values. The proposed method is applied to small size failure data and its application potential is demonstrated.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.3
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• pp.63-70
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• 2018

In this study, a simple probabilistic approach using equivalent coefficient of consolidation ($c_e$) was proposed to consider the spatial variability of coefficient of vertical consolidation ($c_v$), and the effect of the probability distribution of coefficient of consolidation on degree of consolidation in heterogeneous soil was investigated. The statistical characteristics of consolidation coefficient were estimated from 1,226 field data, and four probability distributions (Normal, Log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull) were applied to consider the effect of probability distribution. The random fields of coefficient of consolidation were generated based on Karhunen-Loeve expansion. Then, the equivalent coefficient of consolidation was calculated from the random field and used as the input value of consolidation analysis. As a result, the probabilistic analysis can be performed effectively by separating random field and numerical analysis, and probabilistic analysis was performed using a Latin hypercube Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the statistical properties of $c_e$ were changed by the probability distribution and spatial variability of $c_v$, and the probability distribution of $c_v$ has considerable effects on the probabilistic results. There was a large difference of failure probability depend on the probability distribution when the autocorrelation distance was small (i.e., highly heterogeneous soil). Therefore, the selection of a suitable probability distribution of $c_v$ is very important for reliable probabilistic analysis of consolidation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.21 no.6 s.78
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• pp.74-81
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• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method(RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.1065-1076
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• 2015

Network densification is regarded as the dominant driver for wireless evolution into the era of 5G. However, in this context, interference-limited dense small cell deployments are facing technical challenges in mobility management. The recently announced results from an LTE field test conducted in a dense urban area show a handover failure (HOF) rate of over 21%. A major cause of HOFs is the transmission failure of handover command (HO CMD) messages. In this paper, we propose two enhancements to HO performance in LTE networks - radio link failure-proactive HO, which helps with the reliable transmission of HO CMD messages while the user equipment is under a poor radio link condition, and Early Handover Preparation with Ping-Pong Avoidance (EHOPPPA) HO, which assures reliable transmission of HO CMD under a good radio link condition. We analyze the HO performance of EHOPPPA HO theoretically, and perform simulations to compare the performance of the proposed schemes with that of standard LTE HO. We show that they can decrease the HOF rate to nearly zero through an analysis, and based on the simulation results, by over 70%, without increasing the ping-pong probability.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2007.07a
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• pp.471-472
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• 2007

At this paper, we use non reversible hierarchical scheme and fixed channel assignment scheme at the hierarchical cellular system with macrocell and microcell for the call process strategy Using this strategy, we analyze the system performance in accordance with the various dwell time at each cell. In this simulation result, the more the dwell time is small at microcell, the more the blocking probability and the handover failure probability is low.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2007.04a
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• pp.295-300
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• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significant]y reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.