• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.35-44
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• 2024

Research in dam inflow prediction has actively explored the utilization of data-driven machine learning and deep learning (ML&DL) tools across diverse domains. Enhancing not just the inherent model performance but also accounting for model characteristics and preprocessing data are crucial elements for precise dam inflow prediction. Particularly, existing rainfall data, derived from snowfall amounts through heating facilities, introduces distortions in the correlation between snow accumulation and rainfall, especially in dam basins influenced by snow accumulation, such as Soyang Dam. This study focuses on the preprocessing of rainfall data essential for the application of ML&DL models in predicting dam inflow in basins affected by snow accumulation. This is vital to address phenomena like reduced outflow during winter due to low snowfall and increased outflow during spring despite minimal or no rain, both of which are physical occurrences. Three machine learning models (SVM, RF, LGBM) and two deep learning models (LSTM, TCN) were built by combining rainfall and inflow series. With optimal hyperparameter tuning, the appropriate model was selected, resulting in a high level of predictive performance with NSE ranging from 0.842 to 0.894. Moreover, to generate rainfall correction data considering snow accumulation, a simulated snow accumulation algorithm was developed. Applying this correction to machine learning and deep learning models yielded NSE values ranging from 0.841 to 0.896, indicating a similarly high level of predictive performance compared to the pre-snow accumulation application. Notably, during the snow accumulation period, adjusting rainfall during the training phase was observed to lead to a more accurate simulation of observed inflow when predicted. This underscores the importance of thoughtful data preprocessing, taking into account physical factors such as snowfall and snowmelt, in constructing data models.