• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.397-409
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• 2018

The world financial markets are inter-linked in ways that varies according to market and time. We examine the causality of change focusing on the Korean market as related to the U.S. (S&P 500), Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong-Kong (HSI), and European (DAX) markets. In order to capture time-varying causality running from and to the Korea stock market, we apply the Granger causality test under a VAR model with a wild bootstrap rolling-window approach. We also propose a new concept of a significant causality ratio to measure the intensity of the Granger causality in each time unit. There are many asymmetric strengths in mutual Granger causal relationships. Moreover, there are cases with significant Granger causal relations only in one direction. The period with the most severe Granger causality both running from and to the KOSPI market is the GFC. The market that formed the two-way Granger causal relationship with the KOSPI market for the longest period is the S&P 500. The HSI and DAX markets have the strongest two-way Granger causal relationship with the KOSPI shortly after 2000, and the Nikkei market had the strongest two-way Granger causal relationship with the KOSPI market before the Asian financial crisis.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.165-182
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• 2016

본 논문은 동아시아의 주요 컨테이너항만 간의 경쟁 및 보완 관계를 분석하는 데 그 의의가 있다. 분석의 대상이 되는 항만들은 컨테이너 기종점 물동량 규모로 세계 최대인 중국의 6개 주요 항만과 환적 물동량 규모로 세계 최대인 싱가포르, 홍콩, 부산의 항만이며, 지리적으로는 동아시아에 밀집된 항만들이다. 본 연구에서는 2008년부터 2015년까지의 월간 컨테이너 물동량에 대한 시계열 자료를 이용하여 항만 간의 동태적 관계를 분석하였으며, 벡터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model)에 기초하여 다음과 같이 분석하였다. 먼저 그랜저 인과관계 검정을 통해 항만 간의 상호관계를 규명하고자 하였다. 그리고 이어서 공적뿐 검정을 통해 관련 있는 두 항만 간의 장기적인 균형관계를 살펴보고자 했으며, 아울러 충격반응함수 및 표준변차의 분산분해 과정을 통해 단기적인 영향에 대해서 밝히고자 하였다. 결과를 살펴보면, 먼저 그랜저 인과관계 검정과 공적뿐 검정의 결과, 부산과 홍콩 및 싱가포르의 환적 물동량은 중국 내륙의 주요 기종점 물동량에 대해 상호적으로 또는 일방적으로 경쟁적인 관계가 있음을 보여주었다. 그러나 환적 물동량 간의 인과관계는 상호적으로는 유의미하게 나타나지 않았으며, 공적분도 존재하지 않았다. 다만 분산분해의 결과를 통해 단기적이고 부분적으로 충격에 차지하는 비중을 확인해 본 결과 홍콩항의 환적 물동량이 부산항과 싱가포르항의 환적 물동량에 차지하는 비중이 높아지고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 충격반응함수의 결과를 종합해 보면, 분석의 대부분에서 2기가 지나는 시점에 충격의 여파가 최대가 되며, 6기가 지나면서 그 충격은 소멸되었다. 본 연구에서 분석한 결과로 확인할 수 있는 것은 환적 항만 간의 관계가 경쟁적이라고 할 수 없다는 사실과 오히려 기종점 항만과 환적 항만의 경쟁 관계가 발생한다는 것이다. 이것은 기종점 물동량에 의해 파생된 환적 물동량이 기종점 물동량의 증가에 따라 항상 증가하지 않으며 오히려 감소될 수 있음을 설명하고 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.165-170
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• 2021

This paper examines the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The effective function of financial development is crucial to promote the economic development of the country. To achieve the objective, this study used Gross Domestic Product as a dependent variable and Credit to The Private Sector, Ratio of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP, Trade, Consumer Price Index and Labour Force as an independent variable. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic (ADF) to check the stationary. Bounds test for cointegration and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) are used to check cointegrating relationship amongst the variables and causality between financial development and economic growth. Moreover, the Model selection method is Akaike Info Criterion (AIC). This result demonstrates that the labor force and trade hold a significantly negative relationship with economic growth. Nevertheless, inflation, Credit to The Private Sector, and Ratio of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP show a significantly positive relationship with economic growth. Therefore, there is a statistically significant relationship between Financial Development and Economic growth in Sri Lanka and the Sri Lankan government should reform its trade policies.

• 한방비만학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.54-67
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• 2024

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate changes in body weight and blood pressure and also analyze adverse events after weight loss program using Gamitaeeumjowee-tang in patients with class II or III obesity, considering for metabolic and bariatric surgery. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted on class III obesity or class II obesity patients with comorbidities, who participated in 24-week weight loss program using Gamitaeeumjowee-tang (n=54). The analysis included changes in body weight, body mass index, fat mass, skeletal muscle mass, waist-hip ratio and blood pressure before and after the program. And also calculated the proportion of patients who lost more than 5%, 10%, and 15% of their initial weight. Adverse events were assessed by causality, severity and system-organ classes. Results: After the weight loss program, body weight decreased 12.21±6.43 kg (12.77%), and BMI decreased 4.61±2.25 kg/m² (12.75%) on average (P<0.05). The 90.7% of the subjects lost more than 5% of their weight, 68.5% lost more than 10%, and 35.1% lost more than 15% of their weight. Blood pressure significantly decreased 11.04±14.53 mmHg in systolic and 7.28±11.89 mmHg in diastolic on average (P<0.05). The 97% of adverse events were mild, and 75% were evaluated as 'unlikely' in the causality evaluation. Conclusions: The results of this study, the weight loss program using Gamitaeeumjowee-tang showed significant weight loss and blood pressure reduction in patients with class III obesity or class II obesity with comorbidities, without serious adverse events. Well-designed clinical studies are recommended for the future.

• 대한한의학회지
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.65-79
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• 2024

Objectives: The purpose of this study is to evaluate weight change and analyze adverse events in post-menopausal obese women with Gamitaeeumjowee-tang for weight loss. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted for medical records of 115 post-menopausal obese women (body mass index, BMI≥25 kg/m²) who were administered with Gamitaeeumjowee-tang for 12 weeks for the purpose of weight loss. Weight, skeletal muscle ratio and BMI changes were compared before and after the program. Adverse events were evaluated by causality, severity and system-organ classes. Results: A total of 115 patients were included in this study. The average total weight loss in post-menopausal women was 5.72±2.04kg(p<0.001) and the average weight loss rate was 8.06±2.70%(p<0.001). After the 12-week program, the body fat rate was significantly decreased(3.76±2.20%)(p<0.001) and the skeletal muscle ratio was significantly increased(2.07±1.24%)(p<0.001). There were no significant differences in weight loss, skeletal muscle ratio change and body fat rate change depending on the number of hospital visits. Insomnia was frequently reported throughout the period, and no serious adverse events were reported. Conclusions: This study showed the potential that weight management treatment with Gamitaeeumjowee-tang could be a good way to lose weight of post-menopausal obese women without serious adverse events. Continuous well designed clinical studies are needed.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

2008년도 미국 리먼브라더스 파산으로 인한 미국발 금융위기의 파급 효과로 전 세계적으로 맞은 경제위기 상황에서 해운산업 또한 폭락하였으며, 부정기선 시장은 이후 13년 간 불황을 유지해왔다. 2020년 COVID-19 팬데믹으로 불안정안 세계경제 상황에서 해운시장 또한 폭락하여 어려움을 겪었지만, 예상과 다르게 2020년 말부터 상승세로 전환되며 2021년에는 2008년도 호황기의 용선료 수준을 넘어서서 계속적으로 상승세를 유지하고 있다. 2021년 5월에 발표된 Clarksons 보고서에서는 2020년 코로나로 인한 물동량 감소가 2020년 말까지 코로나 이전 수준으로 회복되었고, 파나막스선형 선복 103~104% 정도의 부정기 벌크선 선복량이 항만에 체선으로 묶여있는 상황으로 벌크선의 수익은 최근 몇 달 동안 10년 만에 최고치로 상승한 것으로 나타났다. 이에 본 연구에서는 대표적인 건화물선 운임지수인 BDI에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 공급측면의 케이프와 파나막스 선형의 선복량과 체선율, 수요측면에서 주요 선적화물인 철광석과 석탄 물동량과의 인과성 검정과 벡터자기회귀모형(VAR)을 추정하여 충격반응함수와 예측오차분산분해를 통하여 COVID-19 펜데믹으로 인한 항만에서의 검역 강화와 하역인부의 전염병 감염 등으로 작업지연에 따른 체선 발생이 부정기선 시장 상승에 영향을 미치는지 분석하고 팬데믹 이후의 해운시황 예측에 도움이 되려는데 그 목적이 있다. 2016년 1월부터 2021년 7월까지의 데이터를 사용하여 변수들과 BDI의 인과성 검정 결과 선복량과 체선율 변수에서 인과성이 나타났으며, 충격반응함수의 결과 t시점에서 발생한 케이프,파나막스의 체선율 표준편차 1단위의 충격은 BDI에 양(+)의 반응을 보였으며 4기에 최고치를 기록한 후 점차 감소하였다. 충격에 대한 반응의 신뢰구간 상한과 하한 모두 양(+)의 구간으로 유의미한 반응이었다. 예측오차 분산분해분석 결과 BDI 변동에 영향을 미치는 설명력은 체선율, 선복량 순으로 나타났으며, 체선율(CGTN)은 운임지수의 BDI의 변화에 2기에는 2.5%의 설명력을 보였으며 4기부터 10%를 넘어 BDI상승에 25%까지 설명력을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이번 연구에서는 수요와 공급의 직접적인 요인 변수외에도 COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 항만에서 체선율 증가에 따른 공급량 감소 효과인 체선율을 변수로 사용하여 부정기 건화물선 운임지수(BDI)와의 인과성 및 영향에 대하여 분석하였다. 위드코로나로 전환되어 체선율이 감소할 경우 해운시황의 하락 리스크가 있을 것으로 예상 된다. 하지만 2023년부터 시행되는 선박 배기가스 탄소배출 감축 규제와 2021년 발주되는 신조선들의 인도시기는 2023년 이후이기 때문에 내년까지도 선복량은 부족할 수 밖에 없을 것으로 예상되어 체선율이 감소되고 해운시황이 하락하더라도 부정기 벌크선박들의 수익성은 2008년 이후의 불황기와는 다르게 나쁘지 않은 수준으로 유지될 것으로 예상된다. 이번 COVID-19 팬데믹발 세계경제 불안정성은 경제적 요인이 아닌 팬데믹으로 인한 생태적 위협으로부터 발생했다는 점에서 과거 경제위기와는 다른 관점에서 분석해 볼 필요가 있다고 생각되며 간접적으로 해운시장에서 공급감소 효과로 나타나는 체선율과의 인과성과 설명력을 분석하였다는데 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권11호
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• pp.1415-1422
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• 2018

In Korea, prior to 2011, the electric reserve margin followed the probabilistic reliability view and the planning reserve margin had been operated at about 15% based on the assumption that power outage was permitted within 0.5 days a year. However, after experiencing the shortage of the electric generation capacity in Sept. 15, 2011, the planning reserve margin was selected as 22% to improve the reliability of the electric supply. In this paper, using panel data of 28 OECD countries over the period 2000-2014 we attempted to empirically examine the linkage between reserve margin, electricity tariffs, renewable energy share, GDP per capita, and summer / winter peak-to-peak ratios. As a result, all four independent variables have been significant for the electric reserve margin, and in particular, we found that countries with similar peaks in winter and summer have operated 4.3% higher reserve margin than countries experiencing only summer peak.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.51-60
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• 2017

India is the top recipient of workers' remittance flows; recent data indicate that the Remittances/GDP ratio has increased from 2.7% in 2000 to 3.36% in 2015. We apply a consumption behavior model, based on the "permanent income hypothesis", to estimate the consumption augmentation and the stability impact for the period of 1989-2014. The independent variables are: (i) real per capita income (exclusive of remittances) is the measure of "permanent income", (ii) remittances is the measure of "transitory income", and (iii) real interest rate as the indicator of consumers' ability for intertemporal consumption. The economic ramifications are important since current global risk factors could decrease flows in the future. The results indicate the significance of all three variables; there are: (i) evidence of significant consumption augmentation, (ii) consumption responds higher to remittances than to real income, the remittance elasticity is 0.571 and the income elasticity is 0.31, and (iii) evidence of pro-cyclical effect. The VAR model indicates some linkages and causality in the series that result in small response to the shocks. Policies to increase or stabilize remittance flows and to leverage remittances for economic development are important.

• Nutrition Research and Practice
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.468-478
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• 2021

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to analyze the association between dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake and depression in postmenopausal women using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) VI. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The KNHANES is a cross-sectional nationwide health and nutrition survey. Dietary data, including omega-3 fatty acids, were assessed using the 24-h recall method. Depression was evaluated using a survey questionnaire. The association between dietary omega-3 fatty acids and depression was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Depression, according to the dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake, was expressed as the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of 4,150 postmenopausal women were included in the analysis. RESULTS: In the fully-adjusted model, the group with the highest dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake significantly showed lower prevalence of depression than the group with the lowest intake (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.33-0.83); a significant linear trend was detected (P for trend = 0.04). According to the dose-response analysis using cubic restricted spline regression, this association was linear and monotonic (P for non-linearity = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake in postmenopausal women was inversely proportional to depression in a dose-response manner. Large cohort studies are needed to verify the causality between omega-3 fatty acids and depression in Korean postmenopausal women.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.99-109
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• 2022

A report released by the Chinese Maritime Court found that the natural environment and other objective factors have greatly reduced the risk of ship collision accidents with the advancement of technologies. However, collisions between merchant ships and fishing boats occur frequently along the coast during fishing seasons, which should be highly valued. International conventions and domestic legislation in China comprise detailed laws with respect to ship collisions, but the theory of ship collision infringement needs to be improved, enriched, and developed. Meanwhile, the development of the tort liability law provides theoretical support for ship collision infringement. As far as China's ship tort legal system is concerned, the research on ship collision tort damage compensation is relatively extensive, and the constitutive elements and causality of ship collision tort liability have also been studied in depth. The purpose of this paper is to explore the domestic legislation applicable to disputes related to ship collisions in China. As these laws are unclear on the resolution of disputes resulting from ship collisions, significant attention has been focused on the final judgments by the Supreme Court of China (SPC), as well as the judicial judgments set by the Maritime Court of China.