• Title/Summary/Keyword: short term neural network

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Research on Forecasting Framework for System Marginal Price based on Deep Recurrent Neural Networks and Statistical Analysis Models

  • Kim, Taehyun;Lee, Yoonjae;Hwangbo, Soonho
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2022
  • Electricity has become a factor that dramatically affects the market economy. The day-ahead system marginal price determines electricity prices, and system marginal price forecasting is critical in maintaining energy management systems. There have been several studies using mathematics and machine learning models to forecast the system marginal price, but few studies have been conducted to develop, compare, and analyze various machine learning and deep learning models based on a data-driven framework. Therefore, in this study, different machine learning algorithms (i.e., autoregressive-based models such as the autoregressive integrated moving average model) and deep learning networks (i.e., recurrent neural network-based models such as the long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit model) are considered and integrated evaluation metrics including a forecasting test and information criteria are proposed to discern the optimal forecasting model. A case study of South Korea using long-term time-series system marginal price data from 2016 to 2021 was applied to the developed framework. The results of the study indicate that the autoregressive integrated moving average model (R-squared score: 0.97) and the gated recurrent unit model (R-squared score: 0.94) are appropriate for system marginal price forecasting. This study is expected to contribute significantly to energy management systems and the suggested framework can be explicitly applied for renewable energy networks.

Long-Term Measurement of Static Strains of Jacket Type Offshore Structure under Severe Tidal Current Environments (빠른 조류 환경에서의 재킷식 해양구조물 시공 중 및 운영 중 장기 변형률 계측 및 분석)

  • Yi, Jin-Hak;Park, Jin-Soon;Park, Jun-Seok;Lee, Kwang-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6A
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2012
  • In this study, structural strain responses of the jacket-type Uldolmok tidal current power plant structure under severe tidal environments were measured and analyzed using long-term measurement system during construction and also operation. It was observed that there were significant changes in strain responses at the steps of jacket lifting, block loading, pile ejection and insertion. Strains due to dead loads and tidal loads were analyzed before and after removal of a jacket leg, and it was also found that the strains due to dead load were much significantly changed after jacket leg removal. From the measurement data during operation, it was found that strain responses were fluctuated with M2 and M4 tidal periods and also relatively short period of about 10 min due to the peculiar tidal characteristics in the Uldolmok strait. Finally, the neural network-based non-parametric estimation models were investigated to build up the signal-based structural damage monitoring system.

Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Fighting Game: A Comparative Study of PPO and A2C

  • Yoshua Kaleb Purwanto;Dae-Ki Kang
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 2024
  • This paper investigates the application of multi-agent deep reinforcement learning in the fighting game Samurai Shodown using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) algorithms. Initially, agents are trained separately for 200,000 timesteps using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with LSTM networks. PPO demonstrates superior performance early on with stable policy updates, while A2C shows better adaptation and higher rewards over extended training periods, culminating in A2C outperforming PPO after 1,000,000 timesteps. These findings highlight PPO's effectiveness for short-term training and A2C's advantages in long-term learning scenarios, emphasizing the importance of algorithm selection based on training duration and task complexity. The code can be found in this link https://github.com/Lexer04/Samurai-Shodown-with-Reinforcement-Learning-PPO.

Restoration of damaged speech files using deep neural networks (심층 신경망을 활용한 손상된 음성파일 복원 자동화)

  • Heo, Hee-Soo;So, Byung-Min;Yang, IL-Ho;Yoon, Sung-Hyun;Yu, Ha-Jin
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose a method for restoring damaged audio files using deep neural network. It is different from the conventional file carving based restoration. The purpose of our method is to infer lost information which can not be restored by existing techniques such as the file carving. We have devised methods that can automate the tasks which are essential for the restoring but are inappropriate for humans. As a result of this study it has been shown that it is possible to restore the damaged files, which the conventional file carving method could not, by using tasks such as speech or nonspeech decision and speech encoder recognizer using a deep neural network.

Tunnel wall convergence prediction using optimized LSTM deep neural network

  • Arsalan, Mahmoodzadeh;Mohammadreza, Taghizadeh;Adil Hussein, Mohammed;Hawkar Hashim, Ibrahim;Hanan, Samadi;Mokhtar, Mohammadi;Shima, Rashidi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2022
  • Evaluation and optimization of tunnel wall convergence (TWC) plays a vital role in preventing potential problems during tunnel construction and utilization stage. When convergence occurs at a high rate, it can lead to significant problems such as reducing the advance rate and safety, which in turn increases operating costs. In order to design an effective solution, it is important to accurately predict the degree of TWC; this can reduce the level of concern and have a positive effect on the design. With the development of soft computing methods, the use of deep learning algorithms and neural networks in tunnel construction has expanded in recent years. The current study aims to employ the long-short-term memory (LSTM) deep neural network predictor model to predict the TWC, based on 550 data points of observed parameters developed by collecting required data from different tunnelling projects. Among the data collected during the pre-construction and construction phases of the project, 80% is randomly used to train the model and the rest is used to test the model. Several loss functions including root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to assess the performance and precision of the applied method. The results of the proposed models indicate an acceptable and reliable accuracy. In fact, the results show that the predicted values are in good agreement with the observed actual data. The proposed model can be considered for use in similar ground and tunneling conditions. It is important to note that this work has the potential to reduce the tunneling uncertainties significantly and make deep learning a valuable tool for planning tunnels.

Predicting the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index Using an Ensemble Neural Network Model (통합적인 인공 신경망 모델을 이용한 발틱운임지수 예측)

  • SU MIAO
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2023
  • The maritime industry is playing an increasingly vital part in global economic expansion. Specifically, the Baltic Dry Index is highly correlated with global commodity prices. Hence, the importance of BDI prediction research increases. But, since the global situation has become more volatile, it has become methodologically more difficult to predict the BDI accurately. This paper proposes an integrated machine-learning strategy for accurately forecasting BDI trends. This study combines the benefits of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) for research on prediction. We collected daily BDI data for over 27 years for model fitting. The research findings indicate that CNN successfully extracts BDI data features. On this basis, LSTM predicts BDI accurately. Model R2 attains 94.7 percent. Our research offers a novel, machine-learning-integrated approach to the field of shipping economic indicators research. In addition, this study provides a foundation for risk management decision-making in the fields of shipping institutions and financial investment.

CNN-LSTM Coupled Model for Prediction of Waterworks Operation Data

  • Cao, Kerang;Kim, Hangyung;Hwang, Chulhyun;Jung, Hoekyung
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1508-1520
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose an improved model to provide users with a better long-term prediction of waterworks operation data. The existing prediction models have been studied in various types of models such as multiple linear regression model while considering time, days and seasonal characteristics. But the existing model shows the rate of prediction for demand fluctuation and long-term prediction is insufficient. Particularly in the deep running model, the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict data of water purification plant because its time series prediction is highly reliable. However, it is necessary to reflect the correlation among various related factors, and a supplementary model is needed to improve the long-term predictability. In this paper, convolutional neural network (CNN) model is introduced to select various input variables that have a necessary correlation and to improve long term prediction rate, thus increasing the prediction rate through the LSTM predictive value and the combined structure. In addition, a multiple linear regression model is applied to compile the predicted data of CNN and LSTM, which then confirms the data as the final predicted outcome.

Deep learning-based recovery method for missing structural temperature data using LSTM network

  • Liu, Hao;Ding, You-Liang;Zhao, Han-Wei;Wang, Man-Ya;Geng, Fang-Fang
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • Benefiting from the massive monitoring data collected by the Structural health monitoring (SHM) system, scholars can grasp the complex environmental effects and structural state during structure operation. However, the monitoring data is often missing due to sensor faults and other reasons. It is necessary to study the recovery method of missing monitoring data. Taking the structural temperature monitoring data of Nanjing Dashengguan Yangtze River Bridge as an example, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network-based recovery method for missing structural temperature data is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the prediction results of temperature data using LSTM network, support vector machine (SVM), and wavelet neural network (WNN) are compared to verify the accuracy advantage of LSTM network in predicting time series data (such as structural temperature). Secondly, the application of LSTM network in the recovery of missing structural temperature data is discussed in detail. The results show that: the LSTM network can effectively recover the missing structural temperature data; incorporating more intact sensor data as input will further improve the recovery effect of missing data; selecting the sensor data which has a higher correlation coefficient with the data we want to recover as the input can achieve higher accuracy.

LSTM based Network Traffic Volume Prediction (LSTM 기반의 네트워크 트래픽 용량 예측)

  • Nguyen, Giang-Truong;Nguyen, Van-Quyet;Nguyen, Huu-Duy;Kim, Kyungbaek
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2018.10a
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    • pp.362-364
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    • 2018
  • Predicting network traffic volume has become a popular topic recently due to its support in many situations such as detecting abnormal network activities and provisioning network services. Especially, predicting the volume of the next upcoming traffic from the series of observed recent traffic volume is an interesting and challenging problem. In past, various techniques are researched by using time series forecasting methods such as moving averaging and exponential smoothing. In this paper, we propose a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) based network traffic volume prediction method. The proposed method employs the changing rate of observed traffic volume, the corresponding time window index, and a seasonality factor indicating the changing trend as input features, and predicts the upcoming network traffic. The experiment results with real datasets proves that our proposed method works better than other time series forecasting methods in predicting upcoming network traffic.

Time Series Classification of Cryptocurrency Price Trend Based on a Recurrent LSTM Neural Network

  • Kwon, Do-Hyung;Kim, Ju-Bong;Heo, Ju-Sung;Kim, Chan-Myung;Han, Youn-Hee
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.694-706
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we applied the long short-term memory (LSTM) model to classify the cryptocurrency price time series. We collected historic cryptocurrency price time series data and preprocessed them in order to make them clean for use as train and target data. After such preprocessing, the price time series data were systematically encoded into the three-dimensional price tensor representing the past price changes of cryptocurrencies. We also presented our LSTM model structure as well as how to use such price tensor as input data of the LSTM model. In particular, a grid search-based k-fold cross-validation technique was applied to find the most suitable LSTM model parameters. Lastly, through the comparison of the f1-score values, our study showed that the LSTM model outperforms the gradient boosting model, a general machine learning model known to have relatively good prediction performance, for the time series classification of the cryptocurrency price trend. With the LSTM model, we got a performance improvement of about 7% compared to using the GB model.