• 제목/요약/키워드: sequential estimation

검색결과 242건 처리시간 0.023초

Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis (통계학적 가뭄빈도분석 기법을 통한 2015년 가뭄사상에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Taesam;Son, Chanyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제49권3호
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2016
  • Drought is a water-related natural disaster which can be simply described as spatially and temporally sequential absence of water. However, its characteristics are very difficult to define. For this reason, the preparation and mitigation from drought events have not been successful. In the current study, we illustrated a design drought estimation approach of water resources infrastructures as well as the existing theoretical one to prepare and mitigate drought disasters. Theoretical and simulation methods were tested including three time series models such as autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR models. The results indicated that for South Korea region, the simulation-based method to estimate drought frequency presented better performance and all the three time series models show similar performance to each other. The current drought event occurring in South Korea was investigated with dividing South Korea into four basins as Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Nakdong River basins. The results showed that two middle and north basins presented significant drought events with 3 year drought duration and around 40 year return period while the other two southern regions illustrated relatively weaker drought events.

A study on the density analysis of climatological stations using the correlation integral method in the fractal dimension (상관적분 기법의 프랙탈 차원 추정을 통한 기후관측소 밀도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Kyung;Lee, Yung-Seop
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2013
  • Currently we have 11 climatological stations registered in World Meteorological Organization. Geographically, these stations are unevenly distributed in Korea and are mainly located on seaside. Therefore station's density analysis should be performed to produce the high-quality climatological data. Using the correlation integral method, the density of climatological stations can be measured by the estimation of fractal dimension. In this study, new climatological stations having the higher fractal dimension were selected. Sequential or simultaneous selection method were carried out until 3 new stations were selected based on the fractal dimension.

A Study on the Validation Test for Open Set Face Recognition Method with a Dummy Class (더미 클래스를 가지는 열린 집합 얼굴 인식 방법의 유효성 검증에 대한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jung-Ho;Choi, KwonTaeg
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.525-534
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    • 2017
  • The open set recognition method should be used for the cases that the classes of test data are not known completely in the training phase. So it is required to include two processes of classification and the validation test. This kind of research is very necessary for commercialization of face recognition modules, but few domestic researches results about it have been published. In this paper, we propose an open set face recognition method that includes two sequential validation phases. In the first phase, with dummy classes we perform classification based on sparse representation. Here, when the test data is classified into a dummy class, we conclude that the data is invalid. If the data is classified into one of the regular training classes, for second validation test we extract four features and apply them for the proposed decision function. In experiments, we proposed a simulation method for open set recognition and showed that the proposed validation test outperform SCI of the well-known validation method

Comparative Analysis of Subsurface Estimation Ability and Applicability Based on Various Geostatistical Model (다양한 지구통계기법의 지하매질 예측능 및 적용성 비교연구)

  • Ahn, Jeongwoo;Jeong, Jina;Park, Eungyu
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2014
  • In the present study, a few of recently developed geostatistical models are comparatively studied. The models are two-point statistics based sequential indicator simulation (SISIM) and generalized coupled Markov chain (GCMC), multi-point statistics single normal equation simulation (SNESIM), and object based model of FLUVSIM (fluvial simulation) that predicts structures of target object from the provided geometric information. Out of the models, SNESIM and FLUVSIM require additional information other than conditioning data such as training map and geometry, respectively, which generally claim demanding additional resources. For the comparative studies, three-dimensional fluvial reservoir model is developed considering the genetic information and the samples, as input data for the models, are acquired by mimicking realistic sampling (i.e. random sampling). For SNESIM and FLUVSIM, additional training map and the geometry data are synthesized based on the same information used for the objective model. For the comparisons of the predictabilities of the models, two different measures are employed. In the first measure, the ensemble probability maps of the models are developed from multiple realizations, which are compared in depth to the objective model. In the second measure, the developed realizations are converted to hydrogeologic properties and the groundwater flow simulation results are compared to that of the objective model. From the comparisons, it is found that the predictability of GCMC outperforms the other models in terms of the first measure. On the other hand, in terms of the second measure, the both predictabilities of GCMC and SNESIM are outstanding out of the considered models. The excellences of GCMC model in the comparisons may attribute to the incorporations of directional non-stationarity and the non-linear prediction structure. From the results, it is concluded that the various geostatistical models need to be comprehensively considered and comparatively analyzed for appropriate characterizations.

Ground Tracking Support Condition Effect on Orbit Determination for Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in Lunar Orbit

  • Kim, Young-Rok;Song, Young-Joo;Park, Jae-ik;Lee, Donghun;Bae, Jonghee;Hong, SeungBum;Kim, Dae-Kwan;Lee, Sang-Ryool
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2020
  • The ground tracking support is a critical factor for the navigation performance of spacecraft orbiting around the Moon. Because of the tracking limit of antennas, only a small number of facilities can support lunar missions. Therefore, case studies for various ground tracking support conditions are needed for lunar missions on the stage of preliminary mission analysis. This study analyzes the ground supporting condition effect on orbit determination (OD) of Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in the lunar orbit. For the assumption of ground support conditions, daily tracking frequency, cut-off angle for low elevation, tracking measurement accuracy, and tracking failure situations were considered. Two antennas of deep space network (DSN) and Korea Deep Space Antenna (KDSA) are utilized for various tracking conditions configuration. For the investigation of the daily tracking frequency effect, three cases (full support, DSN 4 pass/day and KDSA 4 pass/day, and DSN 2 pass/day and KDSA 2 pass/day) are prepared. For the elevation cut-off angle effect, two situations, which are 5 deg and 10 deg, are assumed. Three cases (0%, 30%, and 50% of degradation) were considered for the tracking measurement accuracy effect. Three cases such as no missing, 1-day KDSA missing, and 2-day KDSA missing are assumed for tracking failure effect. For OD, a sequential estimation algorithm was used, and for the OD performance evaluation, position uncertainty, position differences between true and estimated orbits, and orbit overlap precision according to various ground supporting conditions were investigated. Orbit prediction accuracy variations due to ground tracking conditions were also demonstrated. This study provides a guideline for selecting ground tracking support levels and preparing a backup plan for the KPLO lunar mission phase.

A Ppoisson Regression Aanlysis of Physician Visits (외래이용빈도 분석의 모형과 기법)

  • 이영조;한달선;배상수
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 1993
  • The utilization of outpatient care services involves two steps of sequential decisions. The first step decision is about whether to initiate the utilization and the second one is about how many more visits to make after the initiation. Presumably, the initiation decision is largely made by the patient and his or her family, while the number of additional visits is decided under a strong influence of the physician. Implication is that the analysis of the outpatient care utilization requires to specify each of the two decisions underlying the utilization as a distinct stochastic process. This paper is concerned with the number of physician visits, which is, by definition, a discrete variable that can take only non-negative integer values. Since the initial visit is considered in the analysis of whether or not having made any physician visit, the focus on the number of visits made in addition to the initial one must be enough. The number of additional visits, being a kind of count data, could be assumed to exhibit a Poisson distribution. However, it is likely that the distribution is over dispersed since the number of physician visits tends to cluster around a few values but still vary widely. A recently reported study of outpatient care utilization employed an analysis based upon the assumption of a negative binomial distribution which is a type of overdispersed Poisson distribution. But there is an indication that the use of Poisson distribution making adjustments for over-dispersion results in less loss of efficiency in parameter estimation compared to the use of a certain type of distribution like a negative binomial distribution. An analysis of the data for outpatient care utilization was performed focusing on an assessment of appropriateness of available techniques. The data used in the analysis were collected by a community survey in Hwachon Gun, Kangwon Do in 1990. It was observed that a Poisson regression with adjustments for over-dispersion is superior to either an ordinary regression or a Poisson regression without adjustments oor over-dispersion. In conclusion, it seems the most approprite to assume that the number of physician visits made in addition to the initial visist exhibits an overdispersed Poisson distribution when outpatient care utilization is studied based upon a model which embodies the two-part character of the decision process uderlying the utilization.

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Estimation of reaction forces at the seabed anchor of the submerged floating tunnel using structural pattern recognition

  • Seongi Min;Kiwon Jeong;Yunwoo Lee;Donghwi Jung;Seungjun Kim
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.405-417
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    • 2023
  • The submerged floating tunnel (SFT) is tethered by mooring lines anchored to the seabed, therefore, the structural integrity of the anchor should be sensitively managed. Despite their importance, reaction forces cannot be simply measured by attaching sensors or load cells because of the structural and environmental characteristics of the submerged structure. Therefore, we propose an effective method for estimating the reaction forces at the seabed anchor of a submerged floating tunnel using a structural pattern model. First, a structural pattern model is established to use the correlation between tunnel motion and anchor reactions via a deep learning algorithm. Once the pattern model is established, it is directly used to estimate the reaction forces by inputting the tunnel motion data, which can be directly measured inside the tunnel. Because the sequential characteristics of responses in the time domain should be considered, the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm is mainly used to recognize structural behavioral patterns. Using hydrodynamics-based simulations, big data on the structural behavior of the SFT under various waves were generated, and the prepared datasets were used to validate the proposed method. The simulation-based validation results clearly show that the proposed method can precisely estimate time-series reactions using only acceleration data. In addition to real-time structural health monitoring, the proposed method can be useful for forensics when an unexpected accident or failure is related to the seabed anchors of the SFT.

Macroscopic-Microscopic Sequential Traffic Simulation Analysis and Dynamic O/D Estimation for Sub-area (거시-미시 순차적 교통시뮬레이션 방법과 부분상세지구의 동적 O/D추정)

  • Lee, Jin Hak;Kim, Ikki;Kim, Dae Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.567-578
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    • 2014
  • The study suggested a method to improve analysis accuracy such that the interactive effects of transportation changes between outside and inside of sub-areas were sequentially considered in the analysis by linking a macroscopic network analysis and a microscopic traffic simulation. A dynamic O/D estimation method was developed for practical implement of sub-area microscopic simulation analysis by using the results of macroscopic network analysis, the results of selected link analysis at the cordon line of the sub-area, departure time data of household travel survey, timely observed traffic volume data at the cordon. This estimated dynamic O/D for the sub-area made it possible to analyze traffic phenomena in details. Various detailed phenomena such as traffic queues, delay at intersection, and conflicts between vehicles, which is impossible to be grasped through a macroscopic analysis, can be analyzed with the dynamic microscopic traffic analysis. Through implementing an empirical study and validation, the study provided a reference result about accuracy of a microscopic traffic simulation of a sub-area to help its application for real transportation policy analysis.

Application of SWAT-CUP for Streamflow Auto-calibration at Soyang-gang Dam Watershed (소양강댐 유역의 유출 자동보정을 위한 SWAT-CUP의 적용 및 평가)

  • Ryu, Jichul;Kang, Hyunwoo;Choi, Jae Wan;Kong, Dong Soo;Gum, Donghyuk;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.347-358
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    • 2012
  • The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) should be calibrated and validated with observed data to secure accuracy of model prediction. Recently, the SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program for SWAT) software, which can calibrate SWAT using various algorithms, were developed to help SWAT users calibrate model efficiently. In this study, three algorithms (GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, PARASOL: Parameter solution, SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2) in the SWAT-CUP were applied for the Soyang-gang dam watershed to evaluate these algorithms. Simulated total streamflow and 0~75% percentile streamflow were compared with observed data, respectively. The NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) and $R^2$ (Coefficient of Determination) values were the same from three algorithms but the P-factor for confidence of calibration ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 . the PARASOL shows the lowest p-factor (0.27), SUFI-2 gives the greatest P-factor (0.81) among these three algorithms. Based on calibration results, the SUFI-2 was found to be suitable for calibration in Soyang-gang dam watershed. Although the NSE and $R^2$ values were satisfactory for total streamflow estimation, the SWAT simulated values for low flow regime were not satisfactory (negative NSE values) in this study. This is because of limitations in semi-distributed SWAT modeling structure, which cannot simulated effects of spatial locations of HRUs (Hydrologic Response Unit) within subwatersheds in SWAT. To solve this problem, a module capable of simulating groundwater/baseflow should be developed and added to the SWAT system. With this enhancement in SWAT/SWAT-CUP, the SWAT estimated streamflow values could be used in determining standard flow rate in TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Load) application at a watershed.

Comparison of Measured Natural Frequencies of a Railway Bridge Specimen Between Different Excitation Methods (철도교량 시험체의 가진방법에 따른 고유진동수 측정치 변동에 대한 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Sung-Il;Lee, Jungwhee;Lee, Pil-Goo;Kim, Choong-Eon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제30권6A호
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    • pp.535-542
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    • 2010
  • Precise estimation of a structure's dynamic characteristics is indispensable for ensuring stable dynamic responses during lifetime especially for the structures which can experience resonance such as railway bridges. In this paper, the results of forced vibration tests of different excitation methods (vibration exciter and impact hammer) are compared to examine the differences and the cause of differences of extracted natural frequencies. Consequently a natural frequency modification method is suggested to eliminate effects of non-structural disturbance factors. Also, sequential forced vibration tests are performed before and after track construction according to the construction stage of a railway bridge, and the variation of natural frequencies are examined. Effect of added mass of vibration exciter and variation of support condition due to the level of excitation force are concluded as the major cause of natural frequency differences. Thus eliminating these effects can enhance the reliability of the extracted natural frequencies. Construction of track affects not only the mass of structure but also the stiffness of the structure. Also, the amount of increase in stiffness varies according to the level of structural deflection. Therefore, reasonable estimation of the level of structural response during operation is important for precise natural frequency calculation at design phase.