• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.5
• /
• pp.45-53
• /
• 2011

This paper presents a novel random sampling method for generation adequacy assessment including wind-power. Although a time sequential sampling has advantages than a random sampling in its assessment results, it takes long assessment time. Therefore, an effective random sampling method for generation adequacy assessment is highly recommended to get specific reliability indices quickly. The proposed method is based on the Monte-Carlo simulation with state sampling and it can be applied to generation adequacy assessment with other intermittent power sources.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.337-346
• /
• 2001

In this paper we consider the problem of identifying and testing the outliers in linear regression. first we consider the problem for testing the null hypothesis of no outliers. The test based on the ratio of two scale estimates is proposed. We show the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic by Monte Carlo simulation and investigate its properties. Next we consider the problem of identifying the outliers. A forward sequential procedure based on the suggested test is proposed and shown to perform fairly well. The forward sequential procedure is unaffected by masking and swamping effects because the test statistic is based on robust estimate.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.9 no.5
• /
• pp.1520-1526
• /
• 2014

This paper presents a probabilistic method to evaluate the total transfer capability (TTC) by considering the sequential quadratic programming and the uncertainty of weather conditions. After the initial TTC is calculated by sequential quadratic programming (SQP), the transient stability is checked by time simulation. Also because power systems are exposed to a variety of weather conditions the outage probability is increased due to the weather condition. The probabilistic approach is necessary to evaluate the TTC, and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of TTC by considering the various weather conditions.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.71-78
• /
• 2013

The problem of designing an experiment to estimate the reliability of a system that has N subsystems connected in series where each subsystem n has n $T_n$ components connected in parallel is investigated both theoretically and by simulation. An accelerated sampling sheme is introduced. It is shown that the accelerated sampling scheme is asymptotically optimal as the total number of units goes to infinity. Numerical comparisons for a system that has two subsystems connected in series where each subsystem has two components connected in parallel are also given. They indicate that the accelerated sampling scheme performs better than the batch sequential sampling scheme and is nearly optimal.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.6
• /
• pp.1249-1257
• /
• 2011

In this paper, we propose a Sequential Adaptive Nearest Neighbor(SANN) imputation method that combines the Adaptive Nearest Neighbor(ANN) method and the Sequential k-Nearest Neighbor(SKNN) method. When choosing the nearest neighbors of missing observations, the proposed SANN method takes the local feature of the missing observations into account as well as reutilizes the imputed observations in a sequential manner. By using a Monte Carlo study and a real data example, we demonstrate the characteristics of the SANN method and its potential performance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.693-701
• /
• 2002

When the lowest dose level compared with zero-dose control has significant difference in effect, it is referred as minimum effective dose (MED). In this paper, we discuss several nonparametric methods for finding MED using updated rank at each sequential test step in small sample size and suggest new nonparametric procedures based on placement. Monte Carlo Simulation is adapted to compare power and Familywise Error Rate(FWE) of the new procedures with those of discussed nonparametric tests for finding MED.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.271-284
• /
• 2002

In this paper we consider the robust inference for the parameter of linear regression model based on weighted least squares. First we consider the sequential test of multiple outliers. Next we suggest the way to assign a weight to each observation $(x_i,\;y_i)$ and recommend the robust inference for linear model. Finally, to check the performance of confidence interval for the slope using proposed method, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation and presented some numerical results and examples.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
• /
• v.21 no.10
• /
• pp.52-58
• /
• 2007

This paper presents the wind-power model for generation adequacy assessment. Both wind-power and system load depend on time of a year and show their periodic nature with similar periods. Therefore, the two quantities have some probabilistic relations, and if one of them is given, the other can be decided with some probability. In this paper, the two quantities are quantized by k-means clustering algorithm and related probabilities among the cluster centers are calculated using sequential wind-power and system load data. The proposed model is highly expected to be applied for generation adequacy assessment by Monte-Carlo simulation with state sampling method.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.52 no.12
• /
• pp.705-712
• /
• 2003

In this paper, we propose new unified methodologies of reliability and its cost evaluation in power distribution systems. The unified method means that the proposed reliability approaches consider both conventional evaluation factor, i.e. sustained interruptions and additional ones, i.e. momentary interruptions and voltage sags. Because the three voltage quality phenomena generally originate from the outages on distribution systems, the basic and additional reliability indices are summarized considering the fault clearing mechanism. The proposed unified method is divided into the reliability evaluation for calculating the reliability indices and reliability cost evaluation for assessing the damage of customer. The analytic and probabilistic methodologies are presented for each unified reliability and its cost evaluation. The time sequential Monte Carlo technique is used for the probabilistic method. The proposed DVL(Demand Varying Load) model is added to the reliability cost evaluation substituting the average load model. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS(Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) system. The daily load profile of the each customer type in domestic are gathered for the DVL model. Through the case studies, it is verified that the proposed methods can be effectively applied to the distribution systems for more detail reliability assessment than conventional approaches.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.9 no.4
• /
• pp.1154-1162
• /
• 2014

In the restructured electricity market, Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) regime has been introduced to the distribution network. To ensure the network stability, this regime is used along with quality regulations. Quality regulation impose new financial risks on distribution system operators (DSOs). The poor quality of the network will result in reduced revenues for DSOs. The mentioned financial risks depend on the quality indices of the system. Based on annual variation of these indices, the cost of quality regulation will also vary. In this paper with regard to reclosing fault in distribution network, we develop a risk-based method to assess the financial risks caused by quality regulation for DSOs. Furthermore, in order to take the stochastic behavior of the distribution network and quality indices variations into account, time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used. Using the proposed risk method, the effect of taking reclosing time into account will be examined on system quality indicators and the cost of quality regulation in Swedish rural reliability test system (SRRTS). The results show that taking reclosing fault into consideration, affects the system quality indicators, particularly annual average interruption frequency index of the system (SAIFI). Moreover taking reclosing fault into consideration also affects the quality regulations cost. Therefore, considering reclosing time provides a more realistic viewpoint about the financial risks arising from quality regulation for DSOs.