• 한국가스학회지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.81-86
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• 2015

배관설계에 있어 스트레스에 기반한 결정론적 방법이 전통적으로 사용되어 왔다. 한편, 신뢰도기반 설계 및 평가(RBDA) 방법론은 해양 또는 원자력 구조물에 대해 적용되어 왔다. 최근 들어 배관의 한계상태법에 기반한 신뢰도에 대해 ISO 규격 즉, ISO 16708의 출간은 RDBA 방법론이 천연가스배관 설계의 최신방향 중에 하나라는 것을 보여준다. 본 논문은 부식결함을 가진 배관의 시간 의존적 파손 확률을 예측하는 절차에 대한 사례연구를 보여준다. 여기서 전통적인 부식 배관의 신뢰도를 추정하는 데 crude Monte Carlo (CMC) 법을 사용하는 대신에 separable Monte Carlo (SMC) method 적용한다. 그 결과 SMC 방법은 신뢰도 계산에 효율을 향상시키는 장점을 보여준다.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.385-395
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• 2011

An ejector was developed for man-portable missiles. The ejector can be separated from the missile after the completion of the ejection function even without any additional separation devices. This paper introduces the particular separation mechanism of the ejector and presents the methodology, based on a probabilistic design method, to predict the ejection-and-separation reliability. This approach using Monte Carlo simulation can also be applicable to the reliability prediction of one-shot items suffering from difficulties in estimating or in demonstrating their reliability due to the lack of the number of tests available.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.607-627
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• 2015

배출권 가격의 변동성은 기업의 온실가스 감축투자를 위한 의사결정 수립 시에 중요한 요인으로 고려된다. 본 논문의 목적은 우리나라 특성 상 재무구조가 연결된 발전사의 입장에서 배출권 가격의 불확실성을 고려하여 온실가스 저감투자의 실물옵션 가치를 평가할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하는 데 있다. 이윤함수가 선형적으로 분리불가한 경우에는 고전적인 실물옵션 기법으로 적정 투자임계 가격을 도출하는 것이 불가능하기 때문에, 몬테카를로 최소자승법을 적용하여 투자임계 가격을 산출하는 알고리즘을 제시하였으며, 가스, 석유, 석탄의 주요 화력발전원의 수치를 이용하여 투자임계 가격을 시뮬레이션 분석하였다. 배출권 가격으로 표시된 투자임계 가격이 가스와 석유가 석탄에 비해 현저히 낮은 것으로 평가되어, 온실가스 감축투자 측면에서 이들 화석연료가 석탄에 비해 상대적으로 유리한 것으로 나타났다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권6호
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• pp.2112-2124
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• 2023

With the rise of economic and safety standards for nuclear reactors, new concepts of Gen-IV reactors and modular reactors showed more complex designs that challenge current tools for reactor physics analysis. A Monte Carlo (MC) two-step method was proposed in this work. This calculation scheme uses the continuous-energy MC method to generate multi-group cross-sections from heterogeneous models. The multi-group MC method, which can adapt locally-heterogeneous models, is used in the core calculation step. This calculation scheme is verified using a Gen-IV modular lead-based fast reactor (LFR) benchmark case. The influence of homogenized patterns, scatter approximations, flux separable approximation, and local heterogeneity in core calculation on simulation results are investigated. Results showed that the cross-sections generated using the 3D assembly model with a locally heterogeneous representation of control rods lead to an accurate estimation with less than 270 pcm bias in core reactivity, 0.5% bias in control rod worth, and 1.5% bias on power distribution. The study verified the applicability of multi-group cross-sections generated with the MC method for LFR analysis. The study also proved the feasibility of multi-group MC in core calculation with local heterogeneity, which saves 85% time compared to the continuous-energy MC.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.89-104
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• 2021

Non-synoptic winds generated by tornadoes, downbursts or gust fronts exhibit significant non-stationarity and can cause significant wind load effect on flexible structures such as long-span bridges. However, conventional assumptions on stationarity used to evaluate the structural wind-induced vibration are inadequate. In this paper, an efficient frequency domain scheme based on fast CQC method, which can predict non-stationary buffeting random responses of long-span bridges, is presented, and then this approach is applied to evaluate the buffeting response of a long-span suspension bridge located in a complex mountainous wind environment as an example. In this study, the data-driven method based on one available measured wind speed sample is firstly presented to establish non-stationary wind models, including time-varying mean wind speed, time-varying intensity envelope function and uniformly modulated fluctuating spectrum. Then, a linear time-variant (LTV) system based on the proposed scheme can be generally applied to calculate the non-stationary buffeting responses. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed scheme are verified through Monte Carlo time domain simulation implemented in ANSYS platform. Also, the transient effect nature of the bridge responses is further illustrated by comparison of the non-stationary, quasistationary and steady-state cases. Finally, buffeting response analysis with traditional stationary treatment (10 min constant mean plus stationary wind fluctuation) is performed to illustrate the importance of the non-stationary characteristics embedded in original wind speed samples.