• Title/Summary/Keyword: selection index

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A Study on Consumer Sentiment Index Analysis and Prediction Using ARMA Model (ARMA모형을 이용한 소비자 심리지수 분석과 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dongha
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of the Consumer sentiment index survey is to determine the consumer's economic situation and consumption spending plan, and it is used as basic data for diagnosing economic phenomena and forecasting the future economic direction. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and predict the future Consumer sentiment index using the ARMA model based on the past consumer index. Consumer sentiment index is determined according to consumer trends, so it can reflect consumer realities. The consumer sentiment index is greatly influenced by economic indicators such as the base interest rate and consumer price index, as well as various external economic factors. If the consumer sentiment index, which fluctuates greatly due to consumer economic conditions, can be predicted, it will be useful information for households, businesses, and policy authorities. This study predicted the Consumer sentiment index for the next 3 years (36 months in total) by using time series analysis using the ARMA model. As a result of the analysis, it shows a characteristic of repeating an increase or a decrease every month according to the consumer trend. This study provides empirical results of prediction of Consumer sentiment index through statistical techniques, and has a contribution to raising the need for policy authorities to prepare flexible operating policies in line with economic trends.

Financial Forecasting System using Data Editing Technique and Case-based Reasoning (자료편집기법과 사례기반추론을 이용한 재무예측시스템)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.283-286
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    • 2007
  • This paper proposes a genetic algorithm (GA) approach to instance selection in case-based reasoning (CBR) for the prediction of Korea Stock Price Index (KOSPI). CBR has been widely used in various areas because of its convenience and strength in complex problem solving. Nonetheless, compared to other machine learning techniques, CBR has been criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. Generally, in order to obtain successful results from CBR, effective retrieval of useful prior cases for the given problem is essential. However, designing a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems is still a controversial research issue. In this paper, the GA optimizes simultaneously feature weights and a selection task for relevant instances for achieving good matching and retrieval in a CBR system. This study applies the proposed model to stock market analysis. Experimental results show that the GA approach is a promising method for instance selection in CBR.

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Construction of Web-based Material Database and Case Study of Material Selection for Automotive Engine Pulley (웹기반 재료 데이터베이스 구축 및 자동차 엔진풀리용 재료선정 예)

  • Chun, Doo-Man;Ahn, Sung-Hoon;Jang, Jae-Duk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2006
  • Material selection is one of the important activities in design and manufacturing. A selected material at the conceptual design stage affects functionality of the designed part as well as manufacturability and cost of the final product. Unfortunately there are not many accessible material databases that can be used for design. In this research, a web-based material database was constructed. In order to assist designers to compare different materials, two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphs were provided via the web browser Using these graphical tools, multi-dimensional comparison was available in more intuitive manner. As a case study, this system was applied for material selection of an automotive engine pulley.

Multi-Dimensional Selection Method of Port Logistics Location Based on Entropy Weight Method

  • Ruiwei Guo
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 2023
  • In order to effectively relieve the traffic pressure of the city, ensure the smooth flow of freight and promote the development of the logistics industry, the selection of appropriate port logistics location is the basis of giving full play to the port logistics function. In order to better realize the selection of port logistics, this paper adopts the entropy weight method to set up a multi-dimensional evaluation index, and constructs the evaluation model of port logistics location. Then through the actual case, from the environmental dimension and economic competition dimension to make choices and analysis. The results show that port d has the largest logistics competitiveness and the highest relative proximity among the three indicators of hinterland city economic activity, hinterland economic structure, and port operation capacity of different port logistics locations, which has absolute advantages. It is hoped that the research results can provide a reference for the multi-dimensional selection of port logistics site selections.

Pattern Selection Using the Bias and Variance of Ensemble (앙상블의 편기와 분산을 이용한 패턴 선택)

  • Shin, Hyunjung;Cho, Sungzoon
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.112-127
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    • 2002
  • A useful pattern is a pattern that contributes much to learning. For a classification problem those patterns near the class boundary surfaces carry more information to the classifier. For a regression problem the ones near the estimated surface carry more information. In both cases, the usefulness is defined only for those patterns either without error or with negligible error. Using only the useful patterns gives several benefits. First, computational complexity in memory and time for learning is decreased. Second, overfitting is avoided even when the learner is over-sized. Third, learning results in more stable learners. In this paper, we propose a pattern 'utility index' that measures the utility of an individual pattern. The utility index is based on the bias and variance of a pattern trained by a network ensemble. In classification, the pattern with a low bias and a high variance gets a high score. In regression, on the other hand, the one with a low bias and a low variance gets a high score. Based on the distribution of the utility index, the original training set is divided into a high-score group and a low-score group. Only the high-score group is then used for training. The proposed method is tested on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets. The proposed approach gives a better or at least similar performance.

Study on the Vocabulary Synthesis for Index Term Selection (색인어 선정을 위한 어휘결집력에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chul;Jeong, Jun-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.205-226
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    • 1996
  • Under the hypothesis that any pair of terms in the sentence is meaningful to present the context of the paper, the Brillouin measure of term relatedness in automatic indexing is proposed. For the experiment, the pair of terms simul-taneously appeared in two or more sentences of the paper are extracted from the title and abstract of the paper. Com-pared with the list of index terms or subject headings suggested by the author, the terms in term relatedness graph are highly matched with the terms in the list. Especially, it is revealed that the rank of terms by synthetic strength is use-ful in the selection of index terms.

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Development of Enhanced Contingency Screening and Selection Algorithm for On-line Transient Security Assessment (과도안전도 평가를 위한 개선된 상정고장 선택 및 여과 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim Yong-Hak;Song Sung-Geun;Nam Hae-Kon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.306-314
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, a new approach that is based on EEAC & only with network solutions for CS&S in the transient stability assessment is developed. The proposed CS&S algorithm in conjunction with EEAC to include the capability of performing on-line TSA without TDS is used to calculate the critical clearing time for stability index. In this algorithm, all generators are represented by classical models and all loads are represented by constant impedance load models. The accelerating & synchronizing power coefficient as an index is determined at its disturbance through solving network equation directly. As mentioned above, a new index for generator is generally used to determine the critical generators group. The generator rotor angle is fixed for non-critical generators group, but has equal angle increments for critical generators group. Finally, the critical clearing time is calculated from the power-angle relationship of equivalent OMIB system. The proposed CS&S algorithm currently being implemented is applied to the KEPCO system. The CS&S result was remarkably similar to TSAT program and SIME. Therefore, it was found to be suitable for a fast & highly efficient CS&S algorithm in TSA. The time of CS&S for the 139 contingencies using proposed CS&S algorithm takes less than 3 seconds on Pentium 4, 3GHz Desktop.

A Study on the Construction of Fisheries Producer Price Index (수산물 생산자물가지수 산정방식에 관한 고찰;-연근해 어획물을 중심으로-)

  • 이광진
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 1996
  • As an important factor of capitalism economics, price of commodities represents a certain country's economic index. For having correct price policy, there should be an appropriate mechanism to make and use systematic statistical data on price. Price statistics are made by indexes and price indexes are categorized into producer price index(PPI) and consumer price index(CPI). The Bank of Korea is publishing producer price index every year, but the producer price index contains some problems. These include as follows : (a) the impractical selection of fisheries products sample (b) uncorrect measure of aquatic products weights (c) investigating sample places. This study try to substitute producer price index of aquatic products and change construction of fisheries producer price index with experimental research on representative fisheries, weight of each fisheries, and suitability of investigating sample places. It is possible to improve practical fisheries producer price index with the results of this research. The findings are as follow. (a) It will be helpful for the government to make the fisheries price policy. (b) It can be used to understand trends of accurate price and price increase of aquatic products, and it's possible to compare with it other industrial indexes including the mining, agricultural, and manufacturing industry and understand relative price movement. (c) When free sales systems of fisheries products as expected, it will be helpful to analyze price movement of producing fisheries cooperatives, producing fisheries market and consuming fisheries market, analysis of market, and formation and consideration of budget. (d) It can be an important index to determine labor wage.

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A Simplified Optimization in Cotton Bale Selection and Laydown

  • Kang, Bok-Choon;Park, Shin-Woong;Koo, Hyun-Jin;Jeong, Sung-Hoon
    • Fibers and Polymers
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.55-58
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    • 2000
  • We present a new approach to bale laydown grouping, which improves the laydown to laydown uniformities, compared to conventional approaches. In this approach, we use a frequency-relative picking method based on an HVI quality index for cotton bale selection and laydown formation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by computer simulation on real HVI data of 1500 cotton bales. Simulation results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms random picking.

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Estimation and Analysis of Parameters for Rainfall-Runoff Model on the Nakdong River (낙동강 수계 유출분석을 위한 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수 산정)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Song, Gi-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.266-271
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    • 2005
  • In this study, following works have been carried out : division of Nakdong River Basin into 25 sub basins, development of a technique to evaluate spatial distribution of rainfall and analysis of rainfall data of 169 stations, selection of control points, and selection of a hydrologic model(SSARR). The runoff analysis showed that the surface-subsurface separation and soil moisture index parameters are the most important two to the simulation result.

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