• Title/Summary/Keyword: seismic risk estimation

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Stochastic Self-similarity Analysis and Visualization of Earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 발생한 지진의 통계적 자기 유사성 분석 및 시각화)

  • JaeMin Hwang;Jiyoung Lim;Hae-Duck J. Jeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2023
  • The Republic of Korea is located far from the boundary of the earthquake plate, and the intra-plate earthquake occurring in these areas is generally small in size and less frequent than the interplate earthquake. Nevertheless, as a result of investigating and analyzing earthquakes that occurred on the Korean Peninsula between the past two years and 1904 and earthquakes that occurred after observing recent earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula, it was found that of a magnitude of 9. In this paper, the Korean Peninsula Historical Earthquake Record (2 years to 1904) published by the National Meteorological Research Institute is used to analyze the relationship between earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. In addition, the problem solved through this paper was the first to investigate the relationship between earthquake data occurring on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. As a result of measuring the degree of self-similarity of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula using three quantitative estimation methods, the self-similarity parameter H value (0.5 < H < 1) was found to be above 0.8 on average, indicating a high degree of self-similarity. And through graph visualization, it can be easily figured out in which region earthquakes occur most often, and it is expected that it can be used in the development of a prediction system that can predict damage in the event of an earthquake in the future and minimize damage to property and people, as well as in earthquake data analysis and modeling research. Based on the findings of this study, the self-similar process is expected to help understand the patterns and statistical characteristics of seismic activities, group and classify similar seismic events, and be used for prediction of seismic activities, seismic risk assessments, and seismic engineering.

Estimation of Tsunami Risk Zoning on the Coasts Adjacent to the East Sea from Hypothetical Earthquakes (공백역 지진에 의한 동해에 연한 해안에서의 지진해일 위험도 산정)

  • 최병호;에핌페리놉스키;이제신;우승범
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.6 no.5
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2002
  • Prognostic characteristics of hypothetical tsunamis in the East Sea are further discussed based on numerical simulations using linear long wave theory than the last paper(Choi et al). As for choice of source zones, we used 28 cases based on fault parameters of hypothetical earthquakes and 76 cases based on simple initial surface shapes of tsunamigenic earthquakes selected by the seismic gap theory. As a result, the wave heights along the whole coastline adjacent to the East See of tsunamis due to these hypothetical earthquake are presented. Analyses also lead us to conclude that the selection of geographical zones with low risk of tsunamis can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.

A simplified method for estimating the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete frames

  • Jiang, Rui;Jiang, Liqiang;Hu, Yi;Ye, Jihong;Zhou, Lingyu
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.74 no.6
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    • pp.821-832
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    • 2020
  • The fundamental period is an important parameter for seismic design and seismic risk assessment of building structures. In this paper, a simplified theoretical method to predict the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame is developed based on the basic theory of engineering mechanics. The different configurations of the RC frame as well as masonry walls were taken into account in the developed method. The fundamental period of the infilled structure is calculated according to the integration of the lateral stiffness of the RC frame and masonry walls along the height. A correction coefficient is considered to control the error for the period estimation, and it is determined according to the multiple linear regression analysis. The corrected formula is verified by shaking table tests on two masonry infilled RC frame models, and the errors between the estimated and test period are 2.3% and 23.2%. Finally, a probability-based method is proposed for the corrected formula, and it allows the structural engineers to select an appropriate fundamental period with a certain safety redundancy. The proposed method can be quickly and flexibly used for prediction, and it can be hand-calculated and easily understood. Thus it would be a good choice in determining the fundamental period of RC frames infilled with masonry wall structures in engineering practice instead of the existing methods.

A Preliminary Study of Seismic Risk in Pyongyang, North Korea (북한 평양의 지진위험도 분석 선행연구)

  • Kang, Su Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2016
  • Both 1900 years of historic literature and recent instrumental seismic records indicate the Korean Peninsula has repeatedly experienced small and large earthquakes. This study has used historical and instrumental records of Korea to investigate the characteristics of earthquakes in the peninsula. Results of GIS spatial analyses indicate Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, is more vulnerable to the earthquake hazard than that of other regions in the Korean Peninsula. It is also noted that Pyongyang is exposed to high risks of other natural and social disasters because of the high population density and concentrated infra structures. Scenario shake map drawn up assuming a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, which was experienced in A.D. 502 in the area, indicates that 51.1% of the city are exposed to PGA 0.24 g or higher. Recent statistics by the Statistics Korea also indicates the North Korea is far more vulnerable to disasters than those in the South Korea. Results of the preliminary study provide essential information for comprehensive understanding of earthquake hazard estimation in Korea including the North Korea.

Estimation of Dynamic Characteristics of Core Zone of Rockfill Dam by Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW 조사를 통한 사력댐 코어존 동적물성의 평가)

  • Lee, Jong-Wook;Ha, Ik-Soo;Oh, Byung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.860-868
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    • 2008
  • Seismic safety analysis of rockfill dams are consist of the stability analysis as an simplifed method and the dynamic analysis as an detailed method. When high risk dams such as Multi-purpose dams were often applied detailed method by dynamic analysis, dynamic properties of dam materials such as shear modulus are considered as most important factor. Dynamic material properties such as shear modulus had to be investigated by cyclic triaxial test et al. during design and construction stage but these were not conducted because of the condition of domestic seismic design technique. MASW and SASW methods had been applied as a non destructive method to investigate dynamic material properties of existing rockfill dam, has no problems in dam safety at present. These methods were usually performed under the assumptions that the subsurface can be described horizontally homogeneous and isotropic layers. Recent studies(Marwin, 1993, Kim, 2001) showed that surface waves generated through inclined structures have different characteristics from those through a horizontally homogeneous layered model. further Kim et al(2005) and Min and Kim(2006) showed that central core type rockfill dam overestimated the shear wave velocities as increasing the depth through the 3D numerical modelling dut to the effect of outer rockfill and geometrical reasons In this study the results of shear wave velocities of seven rockfill dams form comprehensive facility review, was carried out from 2003 to 2007, were collected and analysed to establish the shear wave velocity distribution characteristics in increasing confining stress in rockfill dams and surface wave velocity ranges in rockfill dam through MASW and the limitation in application are discussed to be utilized as an reference value for dynamic analysis.

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GEOPHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF MARINE CLAYS - FROM GEOTECHNICAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION TO PROCESS MONITORING -

  • Choi, Gye-Chun;Chang, Il-Han;Oh, Tae-Min;Kim, Hak-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2010.09c
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2010
  • Marine clays are soft soil deposits having complicated mineralogy and formation characteristics. Thus, characterization of its geotechnical behavior has been a main issue for geotechnical engineers. Nowadays, the importance and applications of geophysical exploration on marine clays are increasing significantly according to the accuracy, efficiency, and reliability of geophysical survey technology. For marine clays, seismic survey is effective for density and elasticity characterization, while electro-magnetic wave provides the information about the fluid conductivity phenomena inside soil. For practical applications, elastic wave technology can evaluate the consolidation state of natural marine clay layers and estimate important geotechnical engineering parameters of artificially reclaimed marine deposits. Electrical resistivity can provide geophysical characteristics such as particle cementation, pore geometry shape, and pore material phase condition. Furthermore, nondestructive geophysical monitoring is applicable for risk management and efficiency enhancement during natural methane gas extraction from gas hydrate-bearing sediments.

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The Comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment of LNG Tank Designs for the Safety Improvement of Above Ground Membrane Tank (지상식 멤브레인 LNG저장탱크 안전성 향상을 위한 설계형식별 정량적 위험성 비교 평가)

  • Lee S.R.;Kwon B.G.;Lee S.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.9 no.4 s.29
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2005
  • The objective of paper is to carry out a comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of two KOGAS tank designs using a fault tree methodology, a standard 'Full Containment' tank and a 'Membrane' tank. For the membrane tank, both the initial KOGAS design and 4 modified KOGAS designs have been assessed, giving six separate cases. In this paper, the frequencies of releases are quantified using a fault tree approach. For clarity in the analysis, and to ensure consistency, all cases have been quantified using the same fault tree. Logic within the fault tree is used to select each of the cases. Full quantification of risks is often difficult, owing to a lack of relevant failure data, but the aim of this study has been to be as quantitative as possible, with full transparency of failure information. The most significant general cause of external LNG leaks is predicted to be a seismic event, which has been quantified nominally. 4modified KOGAS desiens to Prevent damage of bottom membrane panels that was shown in preparatory estimation could quantitively confirm safety improvement. According to result, the predicted frequencies of an external LNG leak for the full containment and modified membrane tanks are very similar, failures due to dropped pumps are predicted to be significantly greater for the membrane tank with thickened plate than for the full containment tank.

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