• Title/Summary/Keyword: seismic risk estimation

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Applications of Seismic Disaster Simulation Technology on Risk Management

  • Yeh, Chin-Hsun
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.02a
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2010
  • This paper introduces the applications of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which is developed by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Seismic disaster simulation technology (SDST) integrates geographical information system to assess the distribution of ground shaking intensity, ground failure probability, building damages, casualties, post-quake fires, debris, lifeline interruptions, economic losses, etc. given any set of seismic source parameters. The SDST may integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System (TREIRS) developed by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) to obtain valuable information soon after large earthquakes and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources more efficiently. The SDST may also integrate with probabilistic seismic source model to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss, probable maximum loss in one event, and exceeding probability curves of various kinds of losses, to help proposing feasible countermeasures and risk management strategies.

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Probabilistic estimation of seismic economic losses of portal-like precast industrial buildings

  • Demartino, Cristoforo;Vanzi, Ivo;Monti, Giorgio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.323-335
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    • 2017
  • A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

Insights from existing earthquake loss assessment research in Croatia

  • Hadzima-Nyarko, Marijana;Sipos, Tanja Kalman
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.365-375
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    • 2017
  • Seismic risk management has two main technical aspects: to recommend the construction of high-performance buildings and other structures using earthquake-resistant designs or evaluate existing ones, and to prepare emergency plans using realistic seismic scenarios. An overview of seismic risk assessment methodologies in Croatia is provided with details regarding the components of the assessment procedures: hazard, vulnerability and exposure. For Croatia, hazard is presented with two maps and it is expressed in terms of the peak horizontal ground acceleration during an earthquake, with the return period of 95 or 475 years. A standard building typology catalogue for Croatia has not been prepared yet, but a database for the fourth largest city in Croatia is currently in its initial stage. Two methods for earthquake vulnerability assessment are applied and compared. The first is a relatively simple and fast analysis of potential seismic vulnerability proposed by Croatian researchers using damage index (DI) as a numerical value indicating the level of structural damage, while the second is the Macroseismic method.

Integrated urban resilience framework: A comprehensive approach to pre- and post-disaster assessment for earthquake risk reduction

  • Ayse E. Ozsoy Ozbay;Isil Sanri Karapinar;Huseyin C. Unen
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.92 no.2
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    • pp.197-206
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    • 2024
  • In this study, a unified framework that integrates pre- and post-earthquake assessments of buildings was proposed to enhance urban disaster preparedness through the coordination of pre- and post- earthquake efforts. Within this framework, a case study based on the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake was performed comparing the distribution of seismic risk prioritization for 117 reinforced concrete buildings with their actual damage states observed during post-earthquake field inspections. In order to conduct pre-earthquake evaluation process, street-level images were employed using two different rapid visual screening methods. With the use of generated geospatial database enabling the efficient and reliable transmission of the data between both stages of the assessment procedures, the alignment and validation of pre- and post-earthquake evaluations of the buildings were achieved enhancing the coordination of seismic risk management strategies. By implementing the proposed joint framework in this study, an extensive seismic vulnerability evaluation on an urban scale could be achieved by optimizing the computational demands, cost and time required for the strategic planning activities.

Development of Seismic Performance Estimation Service of Bridge through Seismic Risk Assessment (지진위험도평가 방법을 통한 교량의 내진성능 추정 서비스 개발)

  • Cho, Han Min;Lee, Jin Hyuk;Park, Ki Tae;Kim, Kun Soo;Jung, Kyu San;Kim, Jae Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.535-542
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    • 2023
  • In order to understand the seismic performance of a bridge, it is common to review through seismic performance evaluation and numerical analysis of the target bridge. Seismic performance evaluation and review through numerical analysis are analysis methods for specific target bridges, and many problems can arise in each management body managing bridges nationwide. Therefore, in this study, research was conducted to estimate the seismic performance of public bridges with various types and characteristics. Seismic performance was estimated by applying the seismic risk assessment method, calculating the seismic fragility curve for the type and specifications of the bridge, and estimating the seismic performance of the bridge in use by applying the domestic seismic design standard. In addition, by installing it on the platform, service items were established so that users can easily review the estimation of seismic performance of domestic bridges.

Average spectral acceleration: Ground motion duration evaluation

  • Osei, Jack Banahene;Adom-Asamoah, Mark
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.577-587
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    • 2018
  • The quantitative assessment of the seismic collapse risk of a structure requires the usage of an optimal intensity measure (IM) which can adequately characterise the severity of the ground motion. Research suggests that the average spectral acceleration ($Sa_{avg}$) may be an efficient and sufficient alternate IM as compared to the more traditional first mode spectral acceleration, $Sa(T_1)$, particularly during seismic collapse risk estimation. This study primarily presents a comparative evaluation of the sufficiency of the average spectral acceleration with respect to ground motion duration, and secondarily assesses the impact of ground motion duration on collapse risk estimation. By assembling a suite of 100 historical ground motions, incremental dynamic analysis of 60 different inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDF) oscillators with varying periods and ductility capacities were analysed, and collapse risk estimates obtained. Linear regression models are used to comparatively quantify the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ and $Sa(T_1)$ using four significant duration metrics. Results suggests that an improved sufficiency may exist for $Sa_{avg}$ when the period of the SDF system increases, particularly beyond 0.5, as compare to $Sa(T_1)$. In reference to the ground motion duration measures, results indicated that the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ is more sensitive to significant duration definitions that consider almost the full wave train of an accelerogram ($SD_{a5-95}$ and $SD_{v5-95}$). In order to obtain a reduced variability of the collapse risk estimate, the 5-95% significant duration metric defined using the Arias integral ($SD_{a5-95}$) should be used for seismic collapse risk estimation in conjunction with $Sa_{avg}$.

Estimation of seismicity parameters of the seismic zones of the Korean Peninsula using incomplete and complete data files (불완전한 자료 및 완전한 자료 목록을 이용한 한반도 지진구들의 지진활동 매개변수 평가)

  • 이기화
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.04a
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 1998
  • An estimation of seismic risk parameters by seismic zones of the Korea Peninsula in order to calculate the seismic hazard values using these was erformed. Seven seismic source zones were selected in consideration of seismicity and geology of Korean Peninsula. The seismicity parameters that should be estimated are maximum intensity, activity rate and b value in the Gutenberg - Richter relation. For computation of these parameters, least square method or maximum likelihood method is applied to the earthquake data in two ways; the one for the data without maximum intensity and the other with maximum intensity. Earthquake data since Choseon Dynasty is regarded as complete and estimation of parameters was made for these data using above two ways. And recently, a new method is published that estimate the seismicity parameters using mixed data containing large historical events and recent complete observations. Therefore, this method is applied to the whole earthquake data of the Korean Peninsula. It turns out that the b value computed considering maximum intensity is slightly lower than that computed considering without maximum intensity, and it becomes still lower when the incomplete data prior to Choseon Dynasty is used. In the case of the activity rates, the values obtained without maximum intensity and that with maximum intensity are similar, though they are lower when the incomplete data is used. The values of maximum intensities are usually lower when considering incomplete data. In the seismic source zone including the Yangsan Fault zone, however, the values are higher when considering the incomplete data.

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Seismic risk investigation for reinforced concrete buildings in Antalya, Turkey

  • Kepenek, Engin;Korkmaz, Kasim A.;Gencel, Ziya
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2020
  • Turkey is located in one of the most seismically active regions of in Europe. The majority of the population living in big cities are at high seismic risk due to insufficient structural resistance of the existing buildings. Such a seismic risk brings the need for a comprehensive seismic evaluation based on the risk analysis in Turkey. Determining the seismic resistance level of existing building stock against the earthquakes is the first step to reduce the damages in a possible earthquake. Recently in January 2020, the Elazig earthquake brought the importance of the issue again in the public. However, the excessive amount of building stock, labor, and resource problems made the implementation phase almost impossible and revealed the necessity to carry out alternative studies on this issue. This study aims for a detailed investigation of residential buildings in Antalya, Turkey. The approach proposed here can be considered an improved state of building survey methods previously identified in Turkey's Design Code. Antalya, Turkey's fifth most populous city, with a population over 2.5 Million, was investigated as divided into sub-regions to understand the vulnerability, and a threshold value found for the study area. In this study, 26,610 reinforced concrete buildings between 1 to 7 stories in Antalya were examined by using the rapid visual assessment method. A specific threshold value for the city of Antalya was determined with the second level examination and statistical methods carried out in the determined sub-region. With the micro zonation process, regions below the threshold value are defined as the priority areas that need to be examined in detail. The developed methodology can be easily calibrated for application in other cities and can be used to determine new threshold values for those cities.

Fragility assessment of RC-MRFs under concurrent vertical-horizontal seismic action effects

  • Farsangi, Ehsan Noroozinejad;Tasnimi, Abbas Ali;Mansouri, Babak
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.99-123
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    • 2015
  • In this study, structural vulnerability of reinforced concrete moment resisting frames (RC-MRFs) by considering the Iran-specific characteristics is investigated to manage the earthquake risk in terms of multicomponent seismic excitations. Low and medium rise RC-MRFs, which constitute approximately 80-90% of the total buildings stock in Iran, are focused in this fragility-based assessment. The seismic design of 3-12 story RC-MRFs are carried out according to the Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (Standard No. 2800), and the analytical models are formed accordingly in open source nonlinear platforms. Frame structures are categorized in three subclasses according to the specific characteristics of construction practice and the observed seismic performance after major earthquakes in Iran. Both far and near fields' ground motions have been considered in the fragility estimation. An optimal intensity measure (IM) called Sa, avg and beta probability distribution were used to obtain reliable fragility-based database for earthquake damage and loss estimation of RC buildings stock in urban areas of Iran. Nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses by means of lumped-parameter based structural models have been simulated and performed to extract the fragility curves. Approximate confidence bounds are developed to represent the epistemic uncertainties inherent in the fragility estimations. Consequently, it's shown that including vertical ground motion in the analysis is highly recommended for reliable seismic assessment of RC buildings.