• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.173-180
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• 2022

Most of the drinking water dams managed by the local governments in Korea are earthfill dams, and these dams have almost no geotechnical property information necessary for seismic performance evaluation. Nevertheless, in the rough planning stage for improving seismic safety for these dams, it is necessary to classify their relative seismic hazard against earthquakes and conduct an additional ground investigation. The zero seismic failure probability curve is a curve suggested in this study in which the probability of failure due to an earthquake becomes '0' regardless of the geotechnical properties of the earthfill dam. By examining the method and procedure for calculating failure probability due to an earthquake suggested in previous researches, the zero seismic failure probability curves for an earthquake in 1,000-year and 2,400-year return periods in Korea were presented in the form of a hyperbola on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio (ratio of freeboard to dam height), respectively. The distribution characteristics of the dam height and the freeboard ratio of 81 Korean earthfill dams were presented. The two proposed zero seismic failure probability curves are shown on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio, and the relative seismic hazard of 81 dams can be classified into three groups using these curves as boundaries. This study presented the method of classifying the relative seismic hazard and the classification result.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제69권3호
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.191-201
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• 2024

A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.57-63
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 중저준위 방사성 폐기물 처분장의 지진위험도 평가를 위한 평가용 입력지반운동을 도출하였다. 방사성 폐기물 처분장 부지를 대상으로 한 지진재해도 평가를 수행하여 재해도 곡선을 도출하였으며 도출된 재해도 곡선을 바탕으로 등재해도 스펙트럼을 산정하였다. 등재해도 스펙트럼에 부합하는 30개의 인공지진파를 생성하여 해당 부지의 지반을 대상으로 한 부지응답해석을 수행하였다. 대상부지에 대한 부지응답해석을 통하여 지표면과 처분동굴의 상단과 하단부에서의 입력지진운동을 구하였고 각각의 평균값을 구하여 방사성 폐기물 처분장의 리스크 평가를 위한 평가용 응답스펙트럼을 제시하였다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.379-393
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.373-379
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• 2017

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.653-663
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• 2017

A seismic margin assessment evaluates how much margin exists for the system under beyond design basis earthquake events. Specifically, the seismic margin for the entire system is evaluated by utilizing a systems analysis based on the sub-system and component seismic fragility data. Each seismic fragility curve is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data. The systems analysis is generally performed by employing a fault tree analysis. However, the current practice has clear limitations in that it cannot deal with the uncertainties of basic components and accommodate the newly observed data. Therefore, in this paper, we present a Bayesian-based seismic margin assessment that is conducted using seismic fragility data and fault tree analysis including Bayesian inference. This proposed approach is first applied to the pooltype nuclear research reactor system for the quantitative evaluation of the seismic margin. The results show that the applied approach can allow updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level of the fault tree, and can identify critical scenarios modified due to new information. Also, given the seismic hazard information, this approach is further extended to the real-time risk evaluation. Thus, the proposed approach can finally be expected to solve the fundamental restrictions of the current method.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권1A호
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• pp.155-162
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 납면진받침(LRB)이 설치된 중경간 엑스트라도즈드교에서 교각의 파손, 상부구조의 이동변위, 그리고 케이블의 항복에 대한 지진위험도를 평가하였다. 지진위험도는 다수의 지진자료를 이용하여 지진에 대한 구조적 취약성을 평가한 지진취약도와 지진재해지도를 이용하여 해당지역에서의 지진재해도를 산정하여, 이들을 조합함으로써 평가할 수 있었다. 지진시 교각에서 소성힌지의 발생을 고려하기 위해 SAP2000을 사용하여 비선형 지진해석을 수행하였다. 지진자료는 암반노두에서 설계응답스펙트럼을 만족하는 인공지진을 작성한 후, SHAKE91을 사용하여 해당지역의 지반증폭효과를 고려하여 지진 가속도 시간이력을 구하여 사용하였다. 교각의 비선형 응답은 연성도를 사용하여 나타내었고, 2선형 직선의 모멘트-곡률 곡선으로 작성하였다. 본 연구에서는 대수정규분포함수로 지진취약도를 표현하였으며, 한반도를 대상으로 작성된 지진재해지도를 이용하여 지진재해도를 산정하였다. 해석결과 엑스트라도즈드교에서는 케이블과 거더보다는 교각하단에서 면진장치가 더 효과적인 것을 알 수 있었다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.79-90
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• 2020

4- and 8-storey reinforced-concrete frame buildings are analyzed under the suites of the near-fault pulse-like, and the corresponding spectrally equivalent far-fault ground-motion records. Seismic fragility curves for the slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage states are developed, and the damage probability matrices, and the mean loss ratios corresponding to the Design Basis Earthquake and the Maximum Considered Earthquake hazard levels are compared, for the investigated buildings and sets of ground-motion records. It is observed that the spectrally equivalent far-fault ground-motion records result in comparable estimates of the fragility curve parameters, as that of the near-fault pulse-like ground-motion records. As a result, the derived damage probability matrices and mean loss ratios using two suites of ground-motion records differ only marginally (of the order of ~10%) for the investigated levels of seismic hazard, thus, implying the potential for application of the spectrally equivalent ground-motion records, for seismic fragility and risk assessment at the near-fault sites.