• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.245-251
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• 2018

In this paper, we address some issues in existing seismic hazard closed-form equations and present a novel seismic hazard equation form to overcome these issues. The presented equation form is based on higher-order polynomials, which can well describe the seismic hazard information with relatively high non-linearity. The accuracy of the proposed form is illustrated not only in the seismic hazard data itself but also in estimating the annual probability of failure (APF) of the structural systems. For this purpose, the information on seismic hazard is used in representative areas of the United States (West : Los Angeles, Central : Memphis and Kansas, East : Charleston). Examples regarding the APF estimation are the analyses of existing platform structure and nuclear power plant problems. As a result of the numerical example analyses, it is confirmed that the higher-order-polynomial-based hazard form presented in this paper could predict the APF values of the two example structure systems as well as the given seismic hazard data relatively accurately compared with the existing closed-form hazard equations. Therefore, in the future, it is expected that we can derive a new improved APF function by combining the proposed hazard formula with the existing fragility equation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.41 no.10
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• pp.1223-1234
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• 2009

The outlines of seismic PSA implementation standards and seismic hazard evaluation procedure were shown. An overview of the cause investigation of seismic motion amplification on the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki (NCO) earthquake was also shown. Then, the contents for improving the seismic hazard evaluation methodology based on the lessons learned from the NCO earthquake were described. (1) It is very important to recognize the effectiveness of a fault model on the detail seismic hazard evaluation for the near seismic source through the cause investigation of the NCO earthquake. (2) In order to perform and proceed with a seismic hazard evaluation, the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization has proposed the framework of the open deliberation rule regarding the treatment of uncertainty which was made so as to be able to utilize a logic tree. (3) The b-value evaluation on the "Stress concentrating zone," which is a high seismic activity around the NCO hypocenter area, should be modified based on the Gutenberg-Richter equation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.586-595
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• 2002

The Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) or seismic margin assessment (SMA) have been used for the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plant structures and equipments. For the SPRA or SMA, the reference response spectrum should be defined. The site-specific median spectrum has been generally used for the seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipments in a Korean nuclear power plant Since the site-specific spectrum has been developed based on the peak ground motion parameter, the site-specific response spectrum does not represent the same probability of exceedance over the entire frequency range of interest. The uniform hazard spectrum is more appropriate to be used in seismic probabilistic risk assessment than the site- specific spectrum. A method for modifying the seismic fragility parameters that are calculated based on the site-specific median spectrum is described. This simple method was developed to incorporate the effects of the uniform hazard spectrum. The seismic fragility parameters of typical NPP components are modified using the uniform hazard spectrum. The modification factor is used to modify the original fragility parameters. An example uniform hazard spectrum is developed using the available seismic hazard data for the Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) site. This uniform hazard spectrum is used for the modification of fragility parameters.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.1 s.62
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• pp.26-32
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• 2005

Recent earthquakes, measuring over a magnitude of 5.0, on the eastern coast of Korea, have aroused interest in earthquake analyses and the seismic design of caisson-type breakwaters. Most earthquake analysis methods, such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis, are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of coastal structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult for reflecting on one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment(PSHA) of an actual caisson-type breakwater, considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First, the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated, using earthquake sets and a seismic hazard map; then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2024

A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.69 no.3
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.573-586
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• 2019

A seismic hazard map based on spatial analysis of various sources of geologic seismic information was developed and assessed for regional seismic vulnerability in South Korea. The indicators for assessment were selected in consideration of the geological characteristics affecting the seismic damage. Probabilistic seismic hazard and fault information were used to be associated with the seismic activity hazard and bedrock depth related with the seismic damage hazard was also included. Each indicator was constructed of spatial information using GIS and geostatistical techniques such as ordinary kriging, line density mapping and simple kriging with local varying means. Three spatial information constructed were integrated by assigning weights according to the research purpose, data resolution and accuracy. In the case of probabilistic seismic hazard and fault line density, since the data uncertainty was relatively high, only the trend was intended to be reflected firstly. Finally, the seismic activity hazard was calculated and then integrated with the bedrock depth distribution as seismic damage hazard indicator. As a result, a seismic hazard map was proposed based on the analysis of three spatial data and the southeast and northwest regions of South Korea were assessed as having high seismic hazard. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for constructing seismic risk management systems to minimize earthquake disasters.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.689-707
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• 2008

This study presents a method to evaluate the seismic risk of an extradosed bridge with seismic isolators of lead rubber bearings (LRBs), and also to show the effectiveness of the LRB isolators on the extradosed bridge, which is one of the relatively flexible and lightly damped structures in terms of seismic risk. Initially, the seismic vulnerability of a structure is evaluated, and then the seismic hazard of a specific site is rated using an earthquake data set and seismic hazard maps in Korea. Then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed. The nonlinear seismic analyses are carried out to consider plastic deformation of bridge columns and the nonlinear characteristics of soil foundation. To describe the nonlinear behaviour of a column, the ductility demand is adopted, and the moment-curvature relation of a column is assumed to be bilinear hysteretic. The fragility curves are represented as a log-normal distribution function for column damage, movement of superstructure, and cable yielding. And the seismic hazard at a specific site is estimated using the available seismic hazard maps. The results show that in seismically-isolated extradosed bridges under earthquakes, the effectiveness of the isolators is much more noticeable in the columns than the cables and girders.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.111-115
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• 2009

In Korea, the probabilistically developed seismic hazard maps are used with deterministically derived seismic site coefficients in developing the design response spectrum of a specific site. Even though the seismic hazard maps and seismic site coefficients are incompatible, the current design code ignores such incompatibility. If the seismic hazard map and seismic coefficients are both developed in identical probabilistic framework, such problems can be solved. Unfortunately, the available method cannot be use to derive "true" probabilistic site coefficients. This study uses the ground motion time histories, which were developed as the result of a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the companion paper, as input motions in performing one-dimensional equivalent linear site response analyses, from which the uniform hazard response spectra are generated. Another important characteristic of the hazard response spectra are that the uncertainties and randomness of the ground properties are accounted for. The uniform hazard spectra are then used to derive probabilistic site coefficients. Comparison of probabilistic and deterministically site coefficients demonstrate that there is a distinct discrepancy between two coefficients.