• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.569-581
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• 2017

The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based seismic fragility analysis (SFA) approach allows defining more realistic relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. However, the approach requires simulating large number of nonlinear dynamic analyses of structure for reliable estimate of fragility. It makes the approach computationally challenging. The response surface method (RSM) based metamodeling approach which replaces computationally involve complex mechanical model of a structure is found to be a viable alternative in this regard. An adaptive moving least squares method (MLSM) based RSM in the MCS framework is explored in the present study for efficient SFA of existing structures. In doing so, the repetition of seismic intensity for complete generation of fragility curve is avoided by including this as one of the predictors in the response estimate model. The proposed procedure is elucidated by considering a non-linear SDOF system and an existing reinforced concrete frame considered to be located in the Guwahati City of the Northeast region of India. The fragility results are obtained by the usual least squares based and the proposed MLSM based RSM and compared with that of obtained by the direct MCS technique to study the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.277-293
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• 2024

Shored Mechanically Stabilized Earth (SMSE) walls are types of soil retaining structures that increase soil stability under static and dynamic loads. The damage caused by an earthquake can be determined by evaluating the probabilistic seismic response of SMSE walls. This study aimed to assess the seismic performance of SMSE walls and provide fragility curves for evaluating failure levels. The generated fragility curves can help to improve the seismic performance of these walls through assessing and controlling variables like backfill surface settlement, lateral deformation of facing, and permanent relocation of the wall. A parametric study was performed based on a non-linear elastoplastic constitutive model known as the hardening soil model with small-strain stiffness, HSsmall. The analyses were conducted using PLAXIS 2D, a Finite Element Method (FEM) program, under plane-strain conditions to study the effect of the number of geogrid layers and the axial stiffness of geogrids on the performance of SMSE walls. In this study, three areas of damage (minor, moderate, and severe) were observed and, in all cases, the wall has not completely entered the stage of destruction. For the base model (Model A), at the highest ground acceleration coefficient (1 g), in the moderate damage state, the fragility probability was 76%. These values were 62%, and 54%, respectively, by increasing the number of geogrids (Model B) and increasing the geogrid stiffness (Model C). Meanwhile, the fragility values were 99%, 98%, and 97%, respectively in the case of minor damage. Notably, the probability of complete destruction was zero percent in all models.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.187-200
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• 2023

This study analyzed the seismic fragility of bored tunnels based on their surrounding conditions and suggested a representative seismic fragility model. By analyzing the existed seismic fragility models developed for bored tunnels, we developed weighted combination models for each surrounding conditions, such as ground conditions and depth of the tunnel. The seismic fragility curves use the peak ground acceleration (PGA) as a parameter. When the PGA was 0.3 g, the probability of damage exceeding minor or slight damage was 20% for depth of 50 m or less, 10% for depth between 50 m and 100 m, and 3% for depth of 100 m or more. It was also found that the probability of damage was higher for the same PGA and depth when the surrounding ground was rock rather than soil. The probability of damage decreases as the depth increase. This study is expected to be used for developing a comprehensive seismic fragility function for tunnels in the future.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.689-713
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• 2014

The seismic vulnerability of stone masonry buildings is studied on the basis of their fragility curves. In order to account for out-of-plane failure modes, normally disregarded in past studies, linear static Finite Element analysis in 3D of prototype regular buildings is performed using a nonlinear biaxial failure criterion for masonry. More than 1100 analyses are carried out, so as to cover the practical range of the most important parameters, namely the number of storeys, percentage of side length in exterior walls taken up by openings, wall thickness, plan dimensions and number of interior walls, type of floor and pier height-to-length ratio. Results are presented in the form of damage and fragility curves. The fragility curves correspond well to the damage observed in masonry buildings after strong earthquakes and are in good agreement with other fragility curves in the literature. They confirm what is already known, namely that buildings with stiff floors or higher percentage of load-bearing walls are less vulnerable, and that large openings, taller storeys, larger number of storeys, higher wall slenderness and higher ratio of clear height to horizontal length of walls increase the vulnerability, but show also by how much.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.251-259
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• 2021

Current seismic fragility functions for buildings were developed by defining damage state threshold based on story drift concerning foreign references and using the capacity spectrum method based on spectral displacement. In this study, insufficient details and dependence on the core location of piloti-type buildings were not reflected in the fragility function because it was developed before the Pohang earthquake. In order to develop an improved one for piloti-type buildings, several types of core were selected, damage state threshold was determined based on the capacity of structural members, and three-dimensional analyses were utilized. As a result, seismic fragility functions based on spectral acceleration were developed for various core locations and different shear strengths of the column stirrup. The fragility of piloti-type buildings significantly varied according to core location, an additional single wall, and whether the contribution of column stirrup was included or not. To estimate fragility more reasonably, it is necessary to prepare the parameters to reflect actual state well.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.64 no.2
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• pp.213-223
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• 2017

Bridges are lifeline and integral components of transportation system that are susceptible to seismic actions, their vulnerability assessment is essential for seismic risk assessment and mitigation. The vulnerability assessment of bridges common in Pakistan is very important as it is seismically very active region and the available code for the seismic design of bridges is obsolete. This research presents seismic vulnerability assessment of three real case simply supported multi-span reinforced concrete bridges commonly found in northern Pakistan, having one, two and three bents with circular piers. The vulnerability assessment is carried through the non-linear dynamic time history analyses for the derivation of fragility curves. Finite element based numerical models of the bridges were developed in MIDAS CIVIL (2015) and analyzed through with non-linear dynamic and incremental dynamic analyses, using a suite of bridge-specific natural spectrum compatible ground motion records. Seismic responses of shear key, bearing pad, expansion joint and pier components of each bridges were recorded during analysis and retrieved for performance based analysis. Fragility curves were developed for the bearing pads, shear key, expansion joint and pier of the bridges that first reach ultimate limit state. Dynamic analysis and the derived fragility curves show that ultimate limit state of bearing pads, shear keys and expansion joints of the bridges exceed first, followed by the piers ultimate limit state for all the three bridges. Mean collapse capacities computed for all the components indicated that bearing pads, expansion joints, and shear keys exceed the ultimate limit state at lowest seismic intensities.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.3 no.5
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• pp.649-673
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• 2012

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of accounting for aging and deterioration of bridges when estimating their seismic vulnerability. Effects of structural degradation of multiple bridge components, variations in bridge geometry, and comparison of different environmental exposure conditions have traditionally been ignored in the development of seismic fragility curves for aging concrete highway bridges. This study focuses on the degradation of multiple bridge components of a geometrically varying bridge class, as opposed to a single bridge sample, to arrive at time-dependent seismic bridge fragility curves. The effects of different exposure conditions are also explored to assess the impact of severity of the environment on bridge seismic vulnerability. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a representative class of aging multi-span reinforced concrete girder bridges typical of the Central and Southeastern United States. The results reveal the importance of considering multiple deterioration mechanisms, including the significance of degrading elastomeric bearings along with the corroding reinforced concrete columns, in fragility modeling of aging bridge classes. Additionally, assessment of the relative severity of exposure to marine atmospheric, marine sea-splash and deicing salts, and shows 5%, 9% and 44% reduction, respectively, in the median value bridge fragility for the complete damage state relative to the as-built pristine structure.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.83 no.5
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• pp.577-591
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• 2022

This paper develops a comparatively time-efficient methodology for performing seismic fragility analysis of the reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in the presence of uncertainty sources. It aims to appraise the effectiveness of any variation in the material's mechanical properties as epistemic uncertainty, and the record-to-record variation as aleatory uncertainty in structural response. In this respect, the fuzzy set theory, a well-known 𝛼-cut approach, and the Genetic Algorithm (GA) assess the median of collapse fragility curves as a fuzzy response. GA is requisite for searching the maxima and minima of the objective function (median fragility herein) in each membership degree, 𝛼. As this is a complicated and time-consuming process, the authors propose utilizing the Gene Expression Programming-based (GEP-based) equation for reducing the computational analysis time of the case study building significantly. The results indicate that the proposed structural analysis algorithm on the derived GEP model is able to compute the fuzzy median fragility about 33.3% faster, with errors less than 1%.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.463-472
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• 2022

Reinforced concrete (RC) beam column joints (BCJ) have mostly exhibited poor seismic performance during several past earthquakes, typically due to the poor-quality concrete or lack of reinforcement detailing typical of pre-code design practice. The present study is motivated towards numerical simulation and seismic fragility assessment of one such RC-BCJ. The BCJ is loaded to failure and strengthened using Ultra High Performance-Hybrid Fiber Reinforced Concrete (UHP-HFRC) jacketing. The strengthening is performed for four different BCJ specimens, each representing an intermediate damage state before collapse. viz., slight, moderate, severe, and collapse. From the numerical simulation of all the BCJ specimens, an attempt is made to correlate different modelling and design parameters of the BC joint with respect to the damage states. In addition, seismic fragility analysis of the original as well as the retrofitted damaged BCJ specimens show the relative enhancement achieved in each case.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2022

A weighted linear combination of seismic fragility models previously developed for cut-and-cover railway tunnels was presented and the appropriateness of the combined model was evaluated. The seismic fragility function is expressed in the form of a cumulative probability function of the lognormal distribution based on the peak ground acceleration. The model uncertainty can be reduced by combining models independently developed. Equal weight is applied to four models. The new seismic fragility function was developed for each damage level by determining the median and standard deviation, which are model metrics. Comparing fragility curves developed for other bored tunnels, cut-and-cover tunnels for high-speed railway system have a similar level of fragility. We postulated that this is due to the high seismic design standard for high-speed railway tunnel.