• 제목/요약/키워드: seasonal patterns

검색결과 505건 처리시간 0.025초

이노베이션 상태공간 지수평활 모형을 이용한 시간별 전력 수요의 예측 (Hourly electricity demand forecasting based on innovations state space exponential smoothing models)

  • 원다영;성병찬
    • 응용통계연구
    • /
    • 제29권4호
    • /
    • pp.581-594
    • /
    • 2016
  • 본 논문은 이노베이션 상태공간모형을 근간으로 기존의 지수평활법을 포괄할 수 있는 다중 계절형 모형을 소개한다. 특히 이 모형은, 기존 모형의 한계를 극복하고 동일한 계절 내의 다양성을 표현할 수 있도록 계절 성분을 행렬로 표현하는 정교한 구조를 가지고 있다. 이런 구조를 이용하면 비슷한 패턴을 가지는 계절 성분의 모수를 그룹별로 분류할 수 있다. 따라서, 다중 계절형 모형은 모수절약 원칙을 달성할 수 있으며 모형의 해석이 용이한 장점을 가지고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 잠재적으로 임의의 개수의 계절성도 수용 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 다중 계절형 모형을 이용하여 시간 단위로 관측된 한국 전력 수요량을 분석하고 예측한다. 특히, 시간별 전력 수요량의 계절성은 1일 및 1주일의 두 가지로 고려되었고 이를 토대로 유사한 요일들은 공통 계절로 그룹화하였다. 모형의 예측 성능을 평가하기 위하여 기존 지수평활법의 예측 결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과, 다중 계절형 모형이 기존 지수평활법보다 예측력이 우수함을 확인하였다.

Korean Streamflow Patterns In Relation To EI NiNO/Southern Oscillation

  • Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Hyun-Suk
    • Water Engineering Research
    • /
    • 제1권2호
    • /
    • pp.107-117
    • /
    • 2000
  • Streamflow patterns at two gauging stations in Korea, An-Dong dam and Chung-Ju dam, are statistically analyzed in relation to EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As a measure of ENSO, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is used on a monthly and seasonal basis. The traditional correlation analysis shows that cross correlations of the SOI with the seasonal streamflow are generally weak. To investigate the relationship between the extreme values of the SOI, which represent the EI Nino and La Nina events, and the corresponding streamflow patterns, the composite analysis is employed in this study. The composite analysis demonstrates that when EI Nino occurs, seasonal streamflows at An-Dong and Chung-Ju dams during the period from September of the EI Nino year to February of the following year appear to be drier than their means.

  • PDF

Seasonal variation in kelp phlorotannins in relation to grazer abundance and environmental variables in the Alaskan sublittoral zone

  • Dubois, Angela;Iken, Katrin
    • ALGAE
    • /
    • 제27권1호
    • /
    • pp.9-19
    • /
    • 2012
  • Phlorotannins are common metabolites produced in kelps that can have deterrent functions against grazers. The factors dictating seasonal patterns of phlorotannin content in northeastern Pacific kelps are not well understood. This study assessed density and grazing of the gastropod Lacuna vincta on the annual canopy-forming kelp Nereocystis luetkeana and the perennial understory species Agarum clathratum, Saccharina latissima and S. groenlandica in Kachemak Bay, Alaska. In addition, we assessed seasonal patterns of environmental variables as possible drivers of phlorotannin concentrations. Phlorotannins occurred in all species, with overall lowest levels in N. luetkeana, and with different seasonal patterns among the four species. Lacuna vincta was most dense on N. luetkeana thalli in the summer and had highest grazing rates on this low-phlorotannin species. However, correlations between L. vincta density and phlorotannin content of each kelp species were not significant. Except for N. luetkeana, there were no correlations between phlorotannin levels and environmental variables. We suggest that kelp life history traits may be more important for phlorotannin patterns in these kelp species than grazers or environmental drivers.

계절 변화의 원인에 대한 초등학교 6학년 학생들의 선개념 조사 (The Investigation of Six Grade Students' Preconceptions about the Cause of Seasonal Change)

  • 채동현
    • 한국초등과학교육학회지:초등과학교육
    • /
    • 제30권2호
    • /
    • pp.204-212
    • /
    • 2011
  • This research is about the six graders' preconceptions in elementary school about a cause of the seasonal change before learning. The result of this research is that the patterns of six graders's preconceptions in elementary school are earth's rotation, earth's revolution, the distance between the earth and the sun and the location factor between the sun and our country, which are mixed up with two more things. Especially many patterns of students explain the seasonal change of our country using the change of location of our country by earth's rotation, the location factor between the earth and the sun and the distance between the earth and the sun by earth's revolution.

Seasonal and diel abundance and feeding patterns of Chaoborus flavicans in Sang-Chun reservoir

  • Jeong, Ga-Ram;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Animal cells and systems
    • /
    • 제14권4호
    • /
    • pp.297-303
    • /
    • 2010
  • To document the basic ecological aspects of Chaoborus species, which has never been reported in Korea, we attempted to identify the species, to monitor seasonal and vertical dynamics, and to elucidate trophic relations of the species in Sang-Chun reservoir. Using morphological characteristics, we identified the collected samples as C. flavicans. Also, we compared the distribution of C. flavicans, Daphnia rosea and chlorophyll a to observed seasonal dynamics. The increase of C. flavicans was observed 1-2 weeks after the increase of D. rosea. Survey of diel vertica migration patterns in the summer season showed that C. flavicans were in hypolimnion at daytime, but moved to the epilimnion at night. Finally, to determine trophic relationships in Sang-Chun reservoir, additional studies on the food web were undertaken by stable isotope analysis. Chaoborus flavicans I-II instars appear to be filter feeders based on carbon isotope values. Trophic levels of C. flavicans III-IV instars were shown to be higher than other zooplankto based on nitrogen isotope values.

수치모델링을 통한 안목해안에서 계절에 따른 지형변동 패턴 분석 (Analysis of Seasonal Morphodynamic Patterns using Delft3D in Anmok Coast)

  • 김무종;손동휘;유제선
    • 한국연안방재학회지
    • /
    • 제5권4호
    • /
    • pp.183-192
    • /
    • 2018
  • In recent years, coastal areas have been suffering from coastal erosion, such as destruction of coastal roads and military facilities. In this study, the Delft3D model was used to analyze the sediment transport pattern due to seasonal characteristics of summer and winter waves in Anmok beach of the East coast. Typhoon and high waves are mainly are coming from ENE direction in the summer season and the flows occur in the northward. In winter, high waves are incident from NE and the flows occur in the southward. These seasonal patterns were simulated by using Delft3D model. As for model input, reanalysis wave data of the past 38 years were used, and the seasonal patterns were analyzed by dividing the whole year into summer and winter season. The grid point of the 38 year reanalysis data is far from the Anmok beach, so the three model grid systems (wide grid -> intermediate grid -> detailed grid) are constructed. Most of the flows in the NW direction occurred in summer, but erosion and deposition was alternated along the coastline. In winter, sediment was deposited near Gangnung Port due to the southern flow and the southern port. Strong winter waves compared to summer tend to cause deposition around Gangnung Port throughout the year.

남한강 수계에서 장기 이화학적 수질특성에 대한 토지이용도 및 계절성 강우의 영향 (Influence of Landuse Pattern and Seasonal Precipitation on the Long-term Physico-chemical Water Quality in Namhan River Watershed)

  • 이지은;최지웅;안광국
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제21권9호
    • /
    • pp.1115-1129
    • /
    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to analyze long-term annual and seasonal trends of water chemistry on landuse patterns and seasonal precipitation using 72 sampling sites within Namhan River watershed during 2001-2010. Water quality, based on multi-parameters of water temperature(WT), dissolved oxygen(DO), biochemical oxygen demand(BOD), chemical oxygen demand(COD), suspended solids(SS), total nitrogen(TN), total phosphorus(TP), and electric conductivity(EC) varied largely depending on monsoon rain and landuse patterns such as forest, cropland, and residence. Concentrations of BOD and COD as an indicator for organic matter pollution, increased during summer monsoon season at the cropland and residential streams. Values of TN and TP were higher in residential streams than in the forest and cropland streams. In the meantime, DO values had weak relations to the landuse patterns of forest and cropland cover. Water quality was worst in cropland and residential streams, and also most degradated in 4th order streams. Overall, our results suggest that efficient water quality management is required in the cropland and residential landuse streams.

남해 서부연안의 사구미 만에서 거머리말(Zostera marina)과 애기거머리말(Z. japonica)의 개체생태학 (The autecology of Zostera marina and Z. japonica at Sagumi Bay in the southwestern coast of Korea)

  • 옥재승;이상용
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제23권9호
    • /
    • pp.1563-1572
    • /
    • 2014
  • The autecology of the Zostera marina and Z. japonica was studied in populations growing in the same locality (Sagumi Bay, southwestern coast of Korea). Environmental factors and plant characteristics were examined monthly from August 2008 to September 2011. Along intertidal zone, Z. japonica (0.1-0.5 m above mean lower low water, MLLW) occurred above Z. marina (0.5-2.5 m MLLW). Tidal exposure at low tide during day was the highest in the spring and the lowest in the summer. Underwater Irradiance showed seasonal fluctuation that was the highest in spring and summer caused by tidal pattern. Strong seasonal patterns in water temperature appeared to control the seasonal variations in morphology, biomass and leaf growth. The seasonal pattern of Z. japonica resembled that of the Z. marina in morphological characteristics, above-and below-ground biomass, whereas it differed in shoot density and leaf elongation. Despite some similarities in seasonal growth patterns, the patterns of Z. japonica were lagged by 2 month of Z. marina. Seasonal variation in the above biomass of Z. marina was caused by changes in density and plant size, whereas that of Z. japonica was mainly caused by changes in shoot density. Zostera marina was more sensitive to high temperatures than Z. japonica, and the increasing water temperature during the summer became the factor that inhibits the growth of the Z. marina. Zostera Japonica, there is no clear change according to the amount of the light. It is because its habitat locates above that of Zostera marina so that the amount of the light that is necessary to growth is enough and in this condition, any preventing factor does not seem to work at all. Although underwater light getting into Zostera marina's habitat is very low level and there is no any hindrance to the survival of them, it prevents them from their productivity a bit.

Seasonal Comparison of Voluntary Intake and Feeding Behaviour in Korean Spotted Deer (Cervus nippon)

  • Moon, S.H.;Jeon, B.T.;Lee, S.M.;Kim, K.H.;Hudson, R.J.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • 제13권10호
    • /
    • pp.1394-1398
    • /
    • 2000
  • This experiment was carried out to examine the seasonal changes in feed intake and feeding behavior in Korean spotted deer under farmed condition to obtain basic information for efficient feeding management. The seasonal daily gain was the highest (p<0.05) in summer and the lowest (p<0.05) in winter. Dry matter intake (DMI) was the highest (p<0.05) in spring (2,685 g/day) and the lowest in winter (1,929 g/day). Intake of roughage in the DMI was the greatest in spring and that in winter was significantly lower (p<0.05) than in spring. Also DMI, expressed in terms of metabolic body weight ($kgW^{0.75}$), was 85.5 g, 70.6 g, 70.9 g and 65.1 g for spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, and thus was the highest in spring and the lowest in winter (p<0.05). Deer exhibited similar eating patterns, comparatively short and frequent periods, in all seasons. They showed comparatively intensive patterns of rumination during midnight for autumn and winter and relatively continuous patterns of chewing activity during spring and summer. There were no significant differences in seasonal eating time and ruminating time. However, exercise time was the greatest for winter and the lowest for summer and there was a significant difference (p<0.05) between summer and winter. Although not significant, eating time per 100 gDM ingested tended to be short in spring and summer and long in autumn and winter. Ruminating time per 100 gDM ingested was the shortest (p<0.05) in spring compared with in other seasons. The conclusion can be drawn that since deer have seasonal differences in feed intake and feeding habits, it is necessary to establish and develop an efficient feeding system for deer.

황해 영광 안마 군도 해역의 요각류 출현 양상에 영향을 미치는 계절적 환경 요인 (The Seasonal Environmental Factors Affecting Copepod Community in the Anma Islands of Yeonggwang, Yellow Sea)

  • 정영석;이석주;추서휘;윤양호;조현서;김대진;서호영
    • Ocean and Polar Research
    • /
    • 제45권2호
    • /
    • pp.43-55
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to understand the seasonal patterns and variation of the copepod community in the Anma Islands of Yeonggwang, Yellow Sea, with a focus on seasonal surveys to assess the factors affecting their occurrence. Throughout the survey period, Acartia hongi, Paracalanus parvus s. l., and Ditrichocorycaeus affinis were dominant species, while Acartia ohtsukai, Acartia pacifica, Bestiolina coreana, Centropages abdominalis, Labidocera rotunda, Paracalanus sp., Tortanus derjugini, Tortanus forcipatus occurred differently by season and station. As a results of cluster analysis, the copepod communities were distinguished into three distinct groups: spring-winter, summer, and autumn. The results of this study showed that the occurrence patterns of copepod species can vary depending on environmental conditions (topographic, distance from the inshore, etc.), and their spatial occurrence patterns between seasons were controlled by water temperature and prey conditions. One of the physical mechanisms that can affect the distribution of zooplankton in the Yellow Sea is the behavior of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water (YSBCW), which shows remarkable seasonal fluctuations. More detailed further studies are needed for clear grounds for mainly why to many Calanus sinicus in the central region of the Yellow Sea are seasonally moving to the inshore, what strategies to seasonally maintain the population, and support the possibilities of complex factors.