• 대기
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.269-279
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• 2007

This study investigates the possibility of seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by using a dynamical modeling approach. We use data from the SMIP/HFP (Seasonal Prediction Model Inter-comparison Project/Historical Forecast Project) experiment with the Korea Meteorological Administration's GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) T106 model, focusing our analysis on model-generated tropical cyclones. It is found that the prediction depends primarily on the tropical cyclone (TC) detecting criteria. Additionally, a scaling factor and a different weighting to each ensemble member are found to be essential for the best predictions of summertime TC activity. This approach indeed shows a certain skill not only in the category forecast but in the standard verifications such as Brier score and relative operating characteristics (ROC).

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.91-112
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• 2009

The bullwhip effect means the phenomenon of increasing demand variation as moving UP to the upstream in the supply chain. Therefore, it is recognized that the bullwhip effect is problematic for effective supply chain operations. In this paper, we exactly quantifies the bullwhip effect for the case of stochastic lead time and seasonal demand in two-echelon supply chain where retailer employs a base-stock policy considering SARMA demand processes and stochastic lead time. We also investigate the behavior of the proposed measurement for the bullwhip effect with autoregressive and moving average coefficient, stochastic lead time, and seasonal factor.

• 생태와환경
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• 제52권1호
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• pp.40-49
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• 2019

본 연구는 몬순지역의 대형호인 소양호를 대상으로 동물플랑크톤의 종 조성과 생물량을 조사하였으며, 군집의 계절천이를 알아보고자 하였다. 또한, PEG 모델과 몬순지역에서 다른 호수와의 동물플랑크톤 계절천이를 비교하여 고찰하였다. 조사기간 동안 소양호 유역의 강수량은 $705{\sim}1,779mm\;yr^{-1}$의 큰 변동을 보였으며, 70% 이상이 6~9월에 집중되는 것으로 나타났다. 소양호의 수질은 연도별 변화보다 계절적 변화가 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 몬순기후로 인한 여름철 홍수기 탁수유입이 가장 중요한 환경요인으로 작용하였다. 소양호에서 동물플랑크톤 종 조성의 계절천이는 연도별로 차이는 있지만, 매년 두 시기에 거쳐 뚜렷한 경향을 보였다. 봄 시기에는 소형 동물플랑크톤이 우점하였으며, 여름과 가을 시기에는 크기가 큰 지각류와 요각류가 우점하였다. 동물플랑크톤의 생물량은 집중강우 이후 9월에 최대를 보였으며, Chl. a 농도와 유사한 계절변동을 보였다(r=0.45). 소양호에서 동물플랑크톤의 생물량 증가는 강우 시 유입된 영양염과 유기물에 의한 미생물, 식물플랑크톤 등 먹이유용성 증가에 따른 microbial loop와 bottom-up 효과로 판단된다. 결과적으로, 몬순지역의 대형호인 소양호 동물플랑크톤은 종별 계절천이는 PEG 모델을 따랐지만, 생물량의 계절천이는 온대호수뿐만 아니라 몬순지역의 호수와도 차이를 보였다. 이는 유역에서 유입된 다량의 유기물 등과 함께 소양호의 수심, 체류시간 등 수리학적 특성에 따른 영향으로 판단된다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제20권9호
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• pp.1141-1149
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• 2011

The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was simulated to understand coastal sea front of formation and seasonal variation in the Southern Sea of Korea. In this study, we used to concept of stratification factor, to realize seasonal distribution of stratification coefficient which of seasonal residual flow, considered with, tide, wind and density effect. Tidal current tends to flow westward during the flood and eastward during ebb. The current by the wind stress showed to be much stronger the coastal than the offshore area in the surface layer. And the current by the horizontal gradient of water density showed to be relatively weak in the coastal area, with little seasonal differences. On the other hand, the flow in the offshore area showed results similar to that of the Tsushima Warm Current. The stratification factor (SHv) was calculated by taking into account the total flow of tide, wind and density effect. In summer, the calculated SHv distribution ranged from 2.0 to 2.5, similar to that of the coastal sea front. The horizontal temperature gradient showed to be strong during the winter, when the vertical stratification is weak. On the other hand, the horizontal gradient became weak in summer, during which vertical stratification is strong. Therefore, it is presume that the strength of vertical stratification and the horizontal temperature gradient affect the position of the coastal sea front.

• 한국해안해양공학회지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.116-126
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• 1999

본 논문에서는 해양 수중 다공확산관을 통해 하수종말처리장에서 1차 처리된 하·폐수를 해양방류하고 있는 마산만에서 방류수의 근역 희석률에 대한 계절별 변화를 고찰하였다. 방류수역에서 관측된 수온·염분의 수직분포와 대조기·소조기의 유속 자료를 입력하여 CORMIX 모형으로 계절별 희석률을 구하였다. 수심 15m 내외의 방류수역에서 수직적 등밀도 혼합이 전 층에서 형성되는 겨울철과 가을철 순으로 방류수의 근역 희석률이 가장 높았으며, 수온약측이 점차 깊어지는 여름철에는 희석률이 크게 감소하였다. 주변해수의 유동성에 따른 난류확산이 작은 소조기 정체시에는 여름철의 희석률이 겨울철보다 약 1/4정도로 작으며, 유속이 큰 대조기에는 두 계절의 차이가 30%정도로 적었다. 이는 여름철의 조류가 약한 정체시에 방류하수로 인한 수질오염이 마산만 방류수역에 가장 심하게 나타날 것으로 사료된다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.99-119
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• 2018

Unit load factor, which is used for the quantification of non-point pollution in watersheds, has the limitation that it does not reflect spatial characteristics of soil, topography and temporal change due to the interannual or seasonal variability of precipitation. Therefore, we developed the method to estimate a watershed-scale non-point pollutant load using seasonal forecast data that forecast changes of precipitation up to 6 months from present time for watershed-scale water quality management. To establish a preemptive countermeasure against non-point pollution sources, it is possible to consider the unstructured management plan which is possible over several months timescale. Notably, it is possible to apply various management methods such as control of sowing and irrigation timing, control of irrigation through water management, and control of fertilizer through fertilization management. In this study, APEX-Paddy model, which can consider the farming method in field scale, was applied to evaluate the applicability of seasonal forecast data. It was confirmed that the rainfall amount during the growing season is an essential factor in the non-point pollution pollutant load. The APEX-Paddy model for quantifying non-point pollution according to various farming methods in paddy fields simulated similarly the annual variation tendency of TN and TP pollutant loads in rice paddies but showed a tendency to underestimate load quantitatively.

• 동아시아식생활학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.155-166
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• 2011

The purpose of this study was to identify determinants for the perception of traditional food and the probability of belonging to the succession group of traditional food. This study also analyzed foods for seasonal custom and strengths as well as direction concerning improvement of traditional foods, while taking the housewives' hometowns into account. Data were collected from 304 housewives living on Baengnyeong island. Regression analysis showed that family income, age, type, years of residence on Baengnyeong island and hometown were significantly related to the perception of traditional food. Among the significant variables, hometown was the most important factor in explaining perceptional differences. Logit analysis indicated that the probability of belonging to the succession group of traditional food was high with low educational level, high perceptional degree, and North Korea as a native country. The results of chi-square analysis proved that foods associated with seasonal custom, strengths and the improvement of traditional food were different between housewives having South Korea and North Korea as a native country. In this article, similarities and differences in the foods associated with seasonal customs, strengths and the direction concerning improvement of traditional foods are discussed, and implications for both nutritionists and food marketers are provided.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.209-216
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• 2001

Dustfall particles were collected by the modified American dust jar (wide inlet bottle type) at 6 sampling sites in Pusan area from March, 1999 to February, 2000. Thirteen chemical species (Al, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Si, and Zn) were analyzed by AAS and ICP. The purposes of this study were to estimate qualitatively various bulk deposition flux of dustfall and insoluble components by applying regional and seasonal distribution. Dustfall amount of regional variations were found in order of coastal zone, industrial zone, commercial zone, agricultural zone and residential zone, and seasonal total dustfall had higher concentrations during spring for 6.741 ton/${km}^2$/season, lower concentrations during summer for 1.989 ton/${km}^2$/season, and annual total concentration was 17.742 ton/${km}^2$/year. The regional distributions of enrichment factor show well-defined anthropogenic metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) at industrial and agricultural zone, and contribution rate of soil particles were found in order of summer, fall, winter and spring. Factor loading effects of chemical composition of dustfall were found in order of road traffic emission source and combustion processed source, industrial activity source, soil source and marine source.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제11권12호
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• pp.1281-1289
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• 2002

This study was conducted to evaluate water quality in the Keum River using multivariate analysis. The analysis data in Keum river made use of surveyed data by the ministry of environment from January 1994 to December 2001. Thirteen water quality parameter were determined on each sample. The results was summarized as follow; Water quality in the Keum River could be explained up to 71.39% by four factors which were included in loading of organic matter and nutrients by the tributaries (32.88%), seasonal variation (16.09%), loading of pathogenic bacteria by domestic sewage of Gapcheon (13.39%) and internal metabolism in estuary as lakes(9.03%). For spatial variation of factor score, four group was classified by each factor characterization. Station 1 and 2 was influenced by Daechung dam, station 3 was affected by domestic sewage of Gapcheon, station 10~12 was affected by estuary dyke and the rest station. The result of cluster analysis by station was classified into four group that has different water quality characteristics. In monthly cluster analysis, three group was classified according to seasonal characteristic. Also, in yearly cluster analysis, three group was classified. It is necessary to control the pollutant loadings by Gapcheon inflow domestic sewage in Daejeon city for the sake of water quality management of Keum river.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제42권6호
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• pp.45-55
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• 2000

Seasonal water requirements by paddy rice is important to water budgeting for the water resources planning at a basin scale. This paper compares the water requirements resulting from different approaches for the Han River Basin. The demands from the drought years of 1967 and 1968 were found to be significantly less than the irrigation standards. This may result in significant underestimation of the basin-wide water demands. A conversion factor method is proposed to define seasonal irrigation demands. The factor is defined from the ratios of the standards for each growing stage to the drought year demands. The results were compared satisfactorily with those from the irrigation standards, and readily applicable to the water resources planning.