• Title/Summary/Keyword: seasonal adjustment

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The AADT estimation through time series analysis using irregular factor decomposition method (불규칙변동 분해 시계열분석 기법을 사용한 AADT 추정)

  • 이승재;백남철;권희정;최대순;도명식
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2001
  • Until recently, we use only weekly and monthly adjustment factors in order to estimate the AADT. By the way. we can suppose that the traffic is time series data related to flow of time. So we tried to analyse traffic patterns using time series analysis and apply them to estimate the AADT. We could divide traffic patterns into trend, cyclic variation, seasonal variation and irregular variation like as time series data. Also, in order to reduce random error components, we have looked for the weather conditions as an influential factor. There are many weather conditions such as rainfalls, but, temperatures, and sunshine hours among others but we selected rainfalls and lowest temperatures. And then, we have estimated the AADT using time series factors. To compare the results of, we have applied both irregular variation joined to weather factors and that not joined to. RMSE and U-test were opted at methods to appreciate results of AADT estimation.

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Interrelationships between KRW/JPY Real Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in Korea and Japan - Focus on Since Korea's Freely Flexible Exchange Rate System - (한·일 원/엔 실질 환율과 주가와의 관계 분석 - 한국의 자유변동환율제도 실시 이후를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Joung-Gu
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.277-297
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    • 2009
  • This paper empirically investigates a long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships for exchange rate and stock prices in Korea and Japan from January 1998 to July 2008. Because using monthly data in my study, analyzes unit root test and VEC model including seasonality to overcome bias that happen in seasonal adjustment. The empirical evidence suggests that exists strong evidence supporting the long-run cointegration relationships between exchange rates and stock prices of the Korea and Japan. This implies that it is possible to predict one market from another for both countries, which seems to violate the efficient market hypothesis. In the long-run a negative relationship running from the KRW/JPY real exchange rate to the stock prices of Korea strongly argues for the traditional approach.

Analysis of Weather Conditions from Hourly to Seasonal Scales for Pilot Aviation Training Organization(ATO): Case study for Muan International Airport (조종사 양성 전문교육기관을 위한 시간대 및 계절별 기상분석 연구 : 무안국제공항을 중심으로)

  • Son, Byoung Wook;Kim, Hyeonmi;Kim, Hui Yang
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2022
  • Student pilots receiving flight education are inexperienced in piloting and situation judgment skills and are greatly affected by various factors such as psychological, physical, and environmental factors. In particular, one of the most influential factors in the flight education of student pilots is the weather conditions. Unlike large aircraft used in the air transportation business, small aircraft used for flight education have a great impact on education, such as flight restrictions depending on weather conditions, psychological pressure in severe weather, and deterioration of student skills. Therefore, in this study, the meteorological characteristics of meteorological factors that have a great influence on small aircraft were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, an efficient and safe training operation method was suggested to a professional pilot aviation training organization through the adjustment of the training period for the season, the increase in aircraft operation rate, and a safe solo flight plan considering the weather.

The Rice Price Support Program in the midst of Structural Change (미곡시장(米穀市場) 구조변화(構造變化)와 가격지지정책(價格支持政策))

  • Kim, Ji-hong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.3-26
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    • 1990
  • Encouraged by the investment in the rice paddy, the introduction of new varieties (Tong-Il), and the price support program, there has been great success in increasing rice production. Meanwhile, the demand for rice has decreased rapidly as per capita income continues to rise. Rice self-sufficiency has been attained, and a new over-supply problem is emerging. Moreover, the Uruguay Round Agricultural Negotiation would prohibit government price support for agricultural products. In October the Korean government decides the government purchase amount and support price, which works as the price guideline. All interested parties exert political efforts to influence the decision. The continued increase of the government purchase price of rice due to political pressure pushed the government purchase price above the market wholesale price in 1988. Also, the farmers preferred to sell to the government than to the wholesaler. This has discouraged the market mechanism, and the government is to take over the three functions of the market mechanism: stockpiling, seasonal price fluctuation adjustment, and circulation. Another big increase may cause the government purchase price to rise above the consumer price, which might lead to arbitrage opportunities for the farmers and suffocate the market mechanism. However, the current political situations limits the options for the Korean government. This paper argues that a supply control policy will reduce the social cost resulting from the high level of producer price support, and it proposes several second best policies: First, the production of new varieties should be reduced rapidly. Second, the old rice in the government warehouse should be auctioned or disposed of in order to reduce the government handling and management costs. Third, the acreage diversion program should be launched in order to control rice paddy acreage. Fourth, a social welfare program in rural areas should be introduced, since the share of population over 60 is increasing rapidly. Fifth, instead of the price support which is forbidden by the Uruguay Round, Korea should restructure the agricultural industry by developing new crops, by enhancing productivity and by improving the agricultural infrastructure.

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A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, 1998∼2001 (서울시 대기오염과 일별 사망의 상관성에 관한 시계열적 연구 (1998∼2001년))

  • Cho, Yong-Sung;Lee, Jong-Tae;Kim, Yoon-Sin;Hong, Seung-Cheol;Kim, Ho;Ha, Eun-Hee;Park, Hye-Sook;Lee, Bo-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.625-637
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    • 2003
  • This study was performed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Seoul for the years of 1998∼2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO (current day),O$_3$ (current day), PM$_{10}$ (current day), NO$_2$ (1 day before), SO$_2$ (1 day before). Increase of 41.71 $\mu\textrm{g}$/㎥ (interquartile range) in PM$_{10}$ was associated with 1.3% (95% CI = 0.7∼1.9%) increase in the daily number of death. $O_3$ concentrations resulted in an increased risk of 1.3% for 23.86 ppb in all-aged mortality [RR = 1.013 (1.004-1.023)1. This effect was greater in children (less than 15 aged) and elderly (more than 65 aged). After ozone level exceeds 25 ppb, the dose-response relationship between mortality and ozone was almost linear. We concluded that Seoul had 1∼5% increase in mortality in association with IQR (interquartile range) in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Seoul might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution, at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.rly.

A Study on Adjustment of Operational Factor in A2O process (A2O공정 운전인자 조정에 대한 연구)

  • Yoo, Ho-Sik;Lee, Byonghi
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2015
  • An alternative was investigated to maximize the treatment efficiency of wastewater treatment plant without large scale expansion. 79% of detention time was required for enough nitrogen control. As aeration time was extended, nitrification was processed, but opposite trend was seen in phosphorus. High concentration of $NO_3-N$ interrupted PAOs activity not to absorb phosphorus. An alternative was devised for selective use of anaerobic or anoxic zone. Trisection was suggested for alternative use of center room. The result was relatively successful. The concentration of phosphorus was reduced with reduction of nitrogen. Extended anaerobic condition seemed to stimulate denitrification. Valve connection of internal return from aeration tank will make it possible to use middle room alternatively. This method will be a good alternative for seasonal variation of water temperature.

Air Pollution and Daily Modality in Seoul (서울시의 대기오염과 일별 사망자 수의 관련성에 대한 시계열적 연구)

  • Cho, Soo-Hun;Kwon, Ho-Jang
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Seoul for the years of 1991-1995, Methods: Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of secular trend, seasonal factor, day of the week, heat wave, temperature, and humidity. Pollution variables were ozone, nitrogen dioxide, total suspended particles(TSP), and sulfur dioxide. Results: Daily death counts were associated with ozone(1 day before), nitrogen dioxide(1 day before), TSP(2 days before), sulfur dioxide(2 days before). The association with ozone was most statisfically significant and independent of other air pollutants. Increase of 100 ppb in ozone was associated with 0%(95% Cl= 2%-10%) increase in the daily number of death, This effect was greater in persons aged 65 and older. The relative risks of death from respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease were greater than for all-cause mortality in each pollutant. After ozone level exceeds 25 ppb, the dose-response relationship between mortality and ozone was almost linear. However, the effect of TSP, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide on mortality might be confounded with each other. Conclusion: Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Seoul might have an adverse effect on daily mortality.

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A Method of Rating Curve Adjustment (수위유량곡선보정방법에 대하여)

  • 박정근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.4116-4120
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    • 1976
  • With the use of many rivers increased nearly to the capacity, the need for information concerning daily quantities of water and the total annual or seasonal runoff has became increased. A systematic record of the flow of a river is commonly made in terms of the mean daily discharge Since. a single observation of stage is converted into discharge by means of rating curve, it is essential that the stage discharge relations shall be accurately established. All rating curves have the looping effect due chiefly to channel storage and variation in surface slope. Loop rating curves are most characteristic on streams with somewhat flatter gradients and more constricted channels. The great majority of gauge readings are taken by unskilled observers once a day without any indication of whether the stage is rising or falling. Therefore, normal rating curves shall show one discharge for one gauge height, regardless of falling or rising stage. The above reasons call for the correction of the discharge measurements taken on either side of flood waves to the theoretical steady-state condition. The correction of the discharge measurement is to consider channel storage and variation in surface slope. (1) Channel storage As the surface elevation of a river rises, water is temporarily stored in the river channel. There fore, the actual discharge at the control section can be attained by substracting the rate of change of storage from the measured discharge. (2) Variation in surface slope From the Manning equation, the steady state discharge Q in a channel of given roughness and cross-section, is given as {{{{Q PROPTO SQRT { 1} }}}} When the slope is not equal, the actual discharge will be {{{{ { Q}_{r CDOT f } PROPTO SQRT { 1 +- TRIANGLE I} CDOT TRIANGLE I }}}} may be expressed in the form of {{{{ TRIANGLE I= { dh/dt} over {c } }}}} and the celerity is approximately equal to 1.3 times the mean watrr velocity. Therefore, The steady-state discharge can be estimated from the following equation. {{{{Q= { { Q}_{r CDOT f } } over { SQRT { (1 +- { A CDOT dh/dt} over {1.3 { Q}_{r CDOT f }I } )} } }}}} If a sufficient number of observations are available, an alternative procedure can be applied. A rating curve may be drawn as a median line through the uncorrected values. The values of {{{{ { 1} over {cI } }}}} can be yielded from the measured quantities of Qr$.$f and dh/dt by use of Eq. (7) and (8). From the 1/cI v. stage relationship, new vlues of 1/cI are obtained and inserted in Eq. (7) and (8) to yield the steady-state discharge Q. The new values of Q are then plotted against stage as the corrected steadystate curve.

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Temperature Changes of Climatic Solar Terms and Their Spatiotemporal Characteristics in South Korea (우리나라 기후 절기별 기온 변화의 시공간적 특성 분석)

  • Jin, Mi Jeong;Park, Sunyurp
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2015
  • The temperature change patterns of climatic solar terms and their climatic fitness were analyzed. Harmonic analysis based on thirty-year(1981-2010) time-series data from sixty one weather stations across South Korea showed that the central peaks of the extreme heat had shifted toward start of autumn with increasing mean temperature. The overall climatic fitness of solar terms, such as major heat, frost descent, major snow, and major cold, was low, and it showed significant regional variations. The actual meteorological phenomenon representing each climatic solar term was observed much later than the day of the solar term at most weather stations. The number of observations, where an actual meteorological condition for each climatic solar term was recorded within ${\pm}1$ week from the day of that solar term, ranged only from 7.7% to 40.4% of the entire data. Study results also showed that the climatic fitness of major heat, frost descent, and major snow gradually changed in the east-west direction. Major cold, a solar term with higher climatic fitness, was influenced more strongly by latitude than longitude. Considering geographically uneven magnitude and trends in temperature changes, rearrangement and adjustment of time intervals between the solar terms may help us improve their applicability as realistic indicators of seasonal changes.

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Research on Ginseng Production During the Past 20 years (인삼재배 분야의 과거 20년 연구)

  • Park, Hoon
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.472-500
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    • 1996
  • Researches on mineral nutrition, physiology and phyrsiological diseases, . cultivaction methods. brceding. pest control quality management and extension during 1976-1995 in Korea were reviewed Review in brceding and pest control was restricted to the researches directely related to cultivaction. Mineral nulrient up take. partion and varicos factors such as top dreasing. Light intersity etc. and interrelationship between minerals were investigated. Top dressing was not effective due to low minera1 requorement Physiological characteristics on tempelature light and water were well elucidated and applied to assess traditional cultivation method and its inovation. Photosyrnthetic pigments. light harvest proteins and activity of related enzymes were studied. In nitrogen metabolism arginine, praline, ammonium, threonine appeared to have important role in re growth of shoot Saponin metabolism was studied in relation to growth and new ginsenosides were found but physiological role of saponin was not clearly elucidated yet Endogenous growth regulators were reported and various erogenous growth regulators were studied for growth stimulation. short stem and seed pruning etc. Various physiological diseases were investigated for cause and control measures were established. Water culture was little studied Forest culture was studied but not retched the recommendable stage Drip irrigation straw mulching. seasonal shading and soil preparation method including soil fertility adjustment were established for practical application. Shading materials completely changed to polyethylene net and materials of polymers The research on ginseng cultivation in paddy field opened the way to establish the permanent ginseng cultivation plantation Ginseng harvester and seeder were developed in the late 1950s. Transplanted and many other machines were developed in the early 1990s. In ginseng breeding only pure line selection was of practical significance several verities were at the stage of seed propagation at ginseng plantations. Mutation breeding (${\gamma}$-ray. X-ray chemicals) was not successful. The research on plantlet formation through tissue culture was a little progressed but still far behind to vegetative propagation. Disease control research was concentrated in the isolation and identification of pathogans. their ecological charactelistics and biological control and soil humigation. Potato root rot nematodes was found and control method was established. Insect and small animal control research was greatly progresses in identification, ecological investigation, and ecological and physical control. Weed control was less important due to the development of mulching method of ridge and ditch. Quality factors of raw ginseng in relation to red ginseng process were extensively studied. Traditional quality measures were elucidated in accordance with modern analytical chemistry resulting in the importance of peptides in the centrat part rather than ginsenosides For large root production growth promoting rootzone micrcorganisms (PGPRM) were isolated and active compounds were identified. Field test on PGPRM was on going. Varictus methods formality improvement through cultivation were developed. Management research of ginseng production was rare Extension was active throuch official and private organizations and through workshop for the extension specialists, and direct lectures to grower's. Extension services made the researcher to understand the existing problems at grower's fields. Research environment for ginseng production was in prime time only for three years when Korea Ginseng Research Institute was established then gradually aggravated.

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