• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.205-220
• /
• 2016

Seasonal adjustment is useful to provide a better understanding of underlying trends in Korean economic statistics. The seasonal component also includes calendar effects such as Seol and Chuseok. Most popular seasonal adjustment methods are X-12-ARIMA of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and TRAMO-SEATS of the Bank of Spain. Statistics Korea and the Bank of Korea compile seasonally adjusted series of several Korean economic statistics. This paper illustrates basic principles for seasonal adjustment and the current status of seasonal adjustment in Korea based on previous research. In addition, several issues on seasonal adjustment are addressed.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.103-124
• /
• 2003

The seasonal adjustment is an essential process in analyzing the time series of economy and business. There are various methods to adjust seasonal effect such as moving average, extrapolation, smoothing and X11. One of the powerful adjustment methods is X11-ARIMA Model which is popularly used in Korea. This method was delivered from Canada. However, this model has been developed to be appropriate for Canadian and American environment. Therefore, we need to review whether the Xl1-ARIMA Model could be used properly in Korea. In this study, we have applied the method to the annual sales of refrigerator sales in A electronic company. We appreciated the adjustment by result analyzing the time series components such as seasonal component, trend-cycle component, and irregular component, with the proposed method.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.13-40
• /
• 2003

The seasonal adjustment is an essential process in analyzing the time series of economy and business. One of the powerful adjustment methods is X11-ARIMA Model which is popularly used in Korea. This method was delivered from Canada. However, this model has been developed to be appropriate for Canadian and American environment. Therefore, we need to review whether the X11-ARIMA Model could be used properly in Korea. In this study, we have applied the method to the annual sales of refrigerator sales in A electronic company. We appreciated the adjustment by result analyzing the time series components such as seasonal component, trend-cycle component, and irregular component, with the proposed method. Additionally, in order to improve the result of seasonal adjusted time series, we suggest the demand forecasting method base on autocorrelation and seasonality with the X11-ARIMA PROC.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.36 no.5
• /
• pp.457-471
• /
• 2023

The monthly series is an aggregation of daily values. In the absence of observable daily data, calendar effects such as trading day and holidays are estimated using a RegARIMA model. However, if the daily series were observable, these calendar effects could be estimated directly from the daily series, potentially improving the seasonal adjustment of the monthly time series. In this paper, we propose a method to improve the seasonal adjustment of monthly time series by using calendar variation estimation based on daily time series. We apply this seasonal adjustment method to three monthly time series and compare our results with those obtained using X-13ARIMA-SEATS.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
• /
• v.4 no.3
• /
• pp.101-111
• /
• 2001

In an attempt to demonstrate the seasonal variation of the Ulleung Warm Eddy (UWE), in which the UWE changes its shape from a warm core ring in early spring to a warm lens in late summer under the effect of surrounding East Korean Warm Current (EKWC) Water, a simple geostrophic adjustment model is considered. Model results indicate that the buoyancy increase of the EKWC Water and the strengthening of the EKWC towards summer, both of which are typical of this region, are the major factors governing the seasonal variation of the UWE.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.513-523
• /
• 2000

The X-12-ARIMA program was utilized on the analysis of the time series trend on 76 Korean industrial activities data in order to ensure that the trading day effect adjustment as well as the seasonal effect adjustment is needed to extract the fundamental trend-cycle factors from various economic time series data. The trading day effect is strongly correlated with the activity of production and shipping but not with the activity of inventory. Furthermore, the industrial activities were classified with respect to the sensitivity on the tranding day effect.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.225-236
• /
• 2000

To compile seasonally-adjusted statistics for Korean economic statistics accurately. it is necessary to develop a Korean seasonal adjustment program. In this paper. the Korean seasonal adjustment program BOK-X-12-ARIMA, developed through modification of the US. Bureau of the Census's X-12-ARIT\IA, is explained in detail.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.275-284
• /
• 2010

In this study, we introduce filters that used for the prior adjustment of the holiday effect in seasonal adjustment. And we propose new filters having more various and flexible patterns than conventional ones. Under the practical assumption that patterns of effects before and after the holiday are different, we compare adjustment effect of the proposed filters and the existing ones. In comparison study, we estimate the effect from all possible combinations of shapes of filter by RegARIMA. And then, to adjust holiday effect, we apply the estimated results to time series data of industrial production and shipment index data in South Korea.

• Journal of the korean society of oceanography
• /
• v.37 no.3
• /
• pp.134-143
• /
• 2002

Using OGCM results, we have shown that the ring-like cold baroclinic eddies associated with cyclonic circulation are shed from late summer to early fall near the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge from the Kuroshio Extension owing to baroclinic instability. On the other hand, warm baroclinic eddies are generated by the intensified western boundary current associated with the warm anomaly accumulated near the Ridge in winter, which corresponds to the basin-wide barotropic intensification of the wind-driven gyre in winter. We are successful in reproducing the behavior of those meso-scale eddies using a simple two-layer primitive equation model driven by seasonal winds associated with the positive curl. Those eddies carry barotropic seasonal signals originated in the Pacific Basin quite slowly west of the ridge; this process introduces a phase lag in the timing of the seasonal maximum transport in the Philippine Basin west of the ridge. It Is demonstrated that the existence of bottom topography, baroclinicity, and nonlinearity due to advection are three necessary elements for the generation of these eddies south of Japan.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2009.11a
• /
• pp.26-31
• /
• 2009

This study was analysed influence of urban higher temperature in Busan about time series analysis of AWS data. The results are as follows. (1) The temperature of Busan show min $13.2^{\circ}C$ ~max $15.8^{\circ}C$ by 50 years, it is on the rise. (2) The seasonal adjustment series, summer appeared min $17.5^{\circ}C$ ~max $28.9^{\circ}C$ with primitive series similarly. The winter was min $-11.4^{\circ}C$ ~max $17.9^{\circ}C$, the minimum temperature was more lowly than primitive series and maximum temperature was more higher than primitive series. The results, seasonal adjustment series is guessed with influence difference urban structural element beside seasonal factor. (3) Regional analytical result, January appeared with range of min 28% ~max 196% of the seasonal factor and August appeared min 90% ~ max 106%. One of the case which is of 100% or more of the seasonal factor January 12nd~17th, August appears at the 15~17th.