• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.149-168
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• 2011

This paper presents a computational study of column loss scenarios for typical multi-story steel buildings with perimeter moment frames and composite steel-concrete floors. Two prototype buildings (three-story and ten-story) were represented using three-dimensional nonlinear finite element models and explicit dynamic analysis was used to simulate instantaneous loss of a first-story column. Twelve individual column loss scenarios were investigated in the three-story building and four in the ten-story building. This study provides insight into: three-dimensional load redistribution patterns; demands on the steel deck, concrete slab, connections and members; and the impact of framing configuration, building height and column loss location. In the dynamic simulations, demands were least severe for perimeter columns within a moment frame, but the structures also exhibited significant load redistribution for interior column loss scenarios that had no moment connectivity. Composite action was observed to be an important load redistribution mechanism following column loss and the concrete slab and steel deck were subjected to high localized stresses as a result of the composite action. In general, the steel buildings that were evaluated in this study demonstrated appreciable robustness.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.67-75
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• 2012

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.2977-2997
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• 2018

In big data era, fresh data grows rapidly every day. More than 30,000 gigabytes of data are created every second and the rate is accelerating. Many organizations rely heavily on real time streaming, while big data stream computing helps them spot opportunities and risks from real time big data. Storm, one of the most common online stream computing platforms, has been used for big data stream computing, with response time ranging from milliseconds to sub-seconds. The performance of Storm plays a crucial role in different application scenarios, however, few studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of Storm. In this paper, we investigate the performance of Storm under different application scenarios. Our experimental results show that throughput and latency of Storm are greatly affected by the number of instances of each vertex in task topology, and the number of available resources in data center. The fault-tolerant mechanism of Storm works well in most big data stream computing environments. As a result, it is suggested that a dynamic topology, an elastic scheduling framework, and a memory based fault-tolerant mechanism are necessary for providing high throughput and low latency services on Storm platform.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.155-163
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• 2008

This paper presents a novel framework for analysis of power system wide-area blackout based on so called fault cascading scenarios. For a given power system operating state, "triggering" faults or a "seed faults" are chosen based on the probabilities estimated from the hazard rates. The fault probabilities reflect both the load and the weather conditions. Effects of hidden failures in protection systems are also reflected in establishing the fault propagation scenarios since they are one of the major causes for the wide-area blackouts. A tree type data structure called a PS-BEST(Power System Blackout Event Scenario Tree) is proposed for construction of the fault cascading scenarios, in which nodes represent various power system operating states and the arcs are the events causing transitions between the states. Arcs can be either probabilistic or deterministic. For a given initial fault, the total probability of leading to wide-area blackout is estimated by aggregating the individual probability of each fault sequence route leading to wide-area blackout. A case study is performed on the IEEE RTS-79(24 bus) system based on the fault data presented by the North American Electrical Reliability Council(NERC). Test results demonstrate the potentials and the effectiveness of the proposed technique for the future wide-area blackout analysis.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.6-11
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• 2010

Embodying the safety of radioactive waste disposal requires the relevant safety criteria and the corresponding stylized methods to demonstrate its compliance with the criteria. This paper proposes a conceptual model of risk-based safety evaluation for integrating complex potential radiation exposure situations in radioactive waste disposal. For demonstrating compliance with a risk constraint, the approach deals with important exposure scenarios from the viewpoint of the receptor to estimate the resulting risk. For respective exposure situations, it considers the occurrence probabilities of the relevant exposure scenarios as their probability of giving rise to doses to estimate the total risk to a representative person by aggregating the respective risks. In this model, an exposure scenario is simply constructed with three components:radionuclide release, radionuclide migration and environment contamination, and interaction between the contaminated media and the receptor. A set of exposure scenarios and the representative person are established from reasonable combinations of the components, based on a balance of their occurrence probabilities and the consequences. In addition, the probability of an exposure scenario is estimated on the assumption that the initiating external factors influence release mechanisms and transport pathways, and its effect on the interaction between the environment and the receptor may be covered in terms of the representative person. This integrated approach enables a systematic risk assessment for complex exposure situations of radioactive waste disposal and facilitates the evaluation of compliance with risk constraints.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.278-287
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• 2007

Since traffic congestion ratio at any given port fluctuates on the number of arriving and departing vessels, the total tonnage of freight volume being handled, and the number of berth in operation and other factors, there exists a need to numerically analyze the waterway traffic volume. However, there are no effective regulations in regards to the waterway traffic analysis prior to expansion of a port facility. The current analysis requires the traffic analysis in relation only to the width of the waterway, which clearly falls short of achieving a comprehensive evaluation study that could be used in consideration of port expansion.This study provides five scenarios to execute a comprehensive evaluation study and base for the sensitivity study by analyzing the scenarios. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the A, B, and C scenarios varies the average arrival ratio of the berth shows 1.1, 1.19, and 1.28 times of delays respectively. Also, The D and E scenarios take place malfunctions of pier shows 1.21 and 1.53 times of delays respectively. Therefore, various strategies of harbor development and method of harbor management are needed for the flexible correspondence to the environmental changes such as the excessive increasing of the freight volume and often taking place of malfunctioning.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.117-124
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• 2012

There have been recently introduced new types of urban metro vehicles called LRT (Light Rail Transit) running on elevated guideway such as Uijeongbu VAL(which stands for V$\acute{e}$hicule Automatique L$\acute{e}$ger: Automatic Light Rail Vehicle) system, Yong-In LIM(Linear Induction Motor) system, Incheon international airport MAGLEV(Magnetic Levitated Vehicle) system and Daegu monorail system. Most of accidents by the vehicles are bound to happen on elevated guideway. Therefore, it is of vital importance to analyze hazards related to vehicles running on elevated guideway and study emergency evacuation scenarios applicable in case of accidents on elevated guideway so as to secure the safety of the new types of urban metro vehicles. In this study, FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) model was developed to identify all possible hazards, and all possible evacuation scenarios were studied. It was also confirmed that each hazard can be corresponded to one or more evacuation scenarios. This result shows that passengers can be evacuated according to one of the scenarios identified in this study in case of an accident of "Train Stranded on Elevated Guideway".

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.307-317
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• 2016

According to most of energy sector experts, at least in the next two decades, fossil energy plays important role in fulfilling required energy in the world. Based on these conditions, the investigation of the conditions of major countries providing natural gas in the world can be useful in analysis of future development of this clean fuel. According to the latest estimations of British Petroleum Company, Iran with 18.2% natural gas reservoirs has the first natural gas reservoirs in the world. The main purpose of this paper is developing scenarios of gas industry in Iran. To achieve the mentioned goals, besides investigation of existing methods of scenario design and existing production scenarios, natural gas export and consumption in Iran and the world in 2035, the most important scenarios of gas industry in Iran are formulated by critical uncertainty analysis approach using quantitative advanced time based impact analysis in 2035 horizon.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.757-769
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to investigate the key factors affecting the future college of education and describe two scenarios for prospecting the future college of education. In these scenarios, two important factors are selected to influence the college of education : 'Expansion of the marketization' and 'Development of technology'. As a result, two different scenarios have been identified. Scenario 1 is 'College of education realizing user centered education by development of the marketization and technology'. Scenarios 2 is 'College of education realizing welfare and the public of edaucaiton by using technology'. This study has some significance to the college of education in Korea in following aspects. 1) It applies future research methodology in method aspect 2) It arouses attention to the future college of education and reminds probabilities of change in context aspect.