• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenarios

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Economic Analysis of Upland Crop Irrigation Between Individual and Collective Well Water Supply (밭 공간분포와 개별·집단관정 이용을 고려한 밭용수 공급 경제성 분석)

  • JANG, Seongju;PARK, Jinseok;SHIN, Hyung-Jin;KIM, Hyungjoon;HONG, Rokgi;SONG, Inhong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.192-207
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    • 2020
  • Profitability of upland crops is better than paddy crops and proportion of upland is increasing. However, there is a lack of infrastructures for upland irrigation. The object of this study were to develop water supply scenarios using individual and collective agricultural wells to evaluate economic feasibility to consider geographical analysis of upland farms and water supply facilities. Cheongyang, Dangjin, Yesan, and Goesan were selected as study areas where four different crops of red pepper, chinese cabbage, apple, and bean, respectively, were mainly produced in Chungcheong province. As a result, B/C ratio was estimated as 1.49, 1.36, 1.90, and 0.71 in using individual wells scenario, and 1.45, 1.20, 1.91, and 0.65 in using collective wells scenario for red pepper, chinese cabbage, apple, and bean. It turned out that change of price effected on economic feasibility a lot for crops with low production income. As a result of evaluating economic feasibility by number of plots for developing collective well, there was no effect of economy of scale for red pepper and chinese cabbage. In case of collectivizating more than 20 upland plots, effect of economy of scale appeared for apple and bean. In conclusion, development of water using high value crops including red pepper and apple, and effect of collective well requires additory analysis of .spatial distribution of farms.

Analyzing Residential Land Use Change and Population Density Considering Climate Change Using Land Use Equilibrium Model in Jeju (토지이용균형모델을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 제주도 지역의 주거용 토지이용변화와 인구 밀도 예측)

  • YOO, So-Min;LEE, Woo-Kyun;Yamagata, Yoshiki;Lim, Chul-Hee;SONG, Chol-Ho;CHOI, Hyun-Ah
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2015
  • The greenhouse gas emission caused by rapid economic growth and population is increasing in Korea. Also, climate change from greenhouse gases emission is accelerated. IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report projects an increase of greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from the year 2000 to 2030(SRES, 2000). Within this context, establishing countermeasures on climate adaptation and mitigation is becoming increasingly important to reduce the negative effect of climate change at a global level. Along with global efforts to tackle climate change, Korean government has incorporated 'Low Carbon Green Growth'strategies into its national policy agenda. Local governments have also conducted a number of studies to devise plans for environmentally friendly and sustainable city development. In this paper, the land-use equilibrium model, which reflects economic and geographical characteristics, is used to analyze the change in residential land use and population density. The target area for study is Jeju island in Korea. With an application of land use equilibrium model, it derived three types of scenarios of the land use change: (1) dispersion scenario-reflecting present-day conditions (2) adaptation scenario-applying adaptation measures to climate change and (3) combined scenario-integrating both adaptation and mitigation measures in model to climate change. By applying dispersion to combined scenario, the general trend shows a downward shift in population density. Subsequently, energy consumption and expected cost associated with casualties were calculated on the basis of the findings of respective scenario. The results show a descending trend in energy consumption and expected casualtie. Therefore, understanding for residential land use and population density of each scenario that analyzed land use equilibrium model in the study is expected to devise a environmental city plan for climate change stabilization and climate adaptation and mitigation.

Variation in Heading States of Korean Winter Wheat under Winter Temperature Rise of Toluca in Mexico (멕시코 톨루카 지역의 겨울 기온상승에 따른 한국 밀 품종의 출수생태 변이)

  • Park, TaeIl;Chung, Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2016
  • The shuttle breeding of Korean winter wheat has been able to develop high-yielding and day-length-intensive varieties with a wide range of ecologic adoption. However, the phenology of winter wheat has been changed due to recent rises in the winter temperature of Toluca and increasing frequency of high temperatures. We defined two wheat groups (group II and III) with vernalization and evaluated the impact of cold exposure duration and heading ratio due to changes in sowing dates by measuring changes in cold exposure duration and corresponding heading states of each group. The wheat cultivars were sown on three dates in two years. The cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 6 November 2013 was unfulfilled. The cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 22 November and 6 December 2013 was fulfilled. However, in 2014, the cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 5 and 20 November was fulfilled, but that of wheat sown on 5 December was unfulfilled. The differences for the two early November sowings were because winter temperature rises, which caused high temperatures in 2013, whereas early November 2014 saw normal temperatures for the area. The heading ratio of group II did not show a clear difference among the three sowing dates, while the heading ratio of group III was reduced by about half. This implies that the efficiency of shuttle breeding of group III will be high since it showed strong sensitivity to changes in sowing dates. We calculated future sowing dates of each group under near future climate scenarios; the future available sowing dates of group II were projected, but the dates of group III were never estimated in the temperature rise scenario in Toluca. Our findings suggest that change of sowing dates should be considered in the strategy for shuttle breeding of Korean winter wheat.

Management Strategy of Indoor Hazardous Chemicals (실내.외 통합 모델링 및 인체 위해성 평가를 통한 실내 유해화학물질의 관리 전략)

  • Shin, Yong-Seung;Lim, Hye-Sook
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to develop indoor air quality management strategies regarding indoor air pollutants while considering various factors affecting indoor pollutants concentration. The Integrated Indoor Air Quality model(IIAQ) developed by Seoul National University is used for this study. The IIAQ model is a tool that can provide an integrated view to indoor environmental pollution by simulating suggested scenarios. The results of the modeling are used to assess health risk. The concentrations that are used for the risk characterization are weighted concentrations based on the period of time in each place and existing Indoor Air Quality(IAQ) standards. The estimated concentration of toluene and formaldehyde for 10 years through the IIAQ model was 207.3 $ug/m^3$ and 36.4 $ug/m^3$ in indoors, and 55.9 $ug/m^3$ and 8.62 $ug/m^3$ in outdoors. These concentrations are lower than the existing IAQ standards. The estimated carcinogenic risk of formaldehyde is up to 1.05E-03 for the adult male group and exceeds 1E-06 for all receptor groups. This value means that cancer could affect one person out of 1000. The estimated non-carcinogenic risk of toluene was lower than 1, which means that there was no serious non- carcinogenic risk. The result of modeling shows that using low emitting indoor sources is the most effective strategy for both formaldehyde and toluene. This risk assessment suggests that the total exposure levels of existing IAQ standards may cause serious carcinogenic risk. In order to avoid uncontrolled risk, it is suggested that the current IAQ standards should be adjusted by taking into account the total amount of exposure from all exposure pathways from indoor and outdoor sources.

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Application of BASINS/WinHSPF for Pollutant Loading Estimation in Soyang Dam Watershed (소양강댐 유역의 오염부하량 산정을 위한 BASINS/WinHSPF 적용)

  • Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Han, Jung-Yoon;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Jang, Jae-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.201-213
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the Batter Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS 3.0)/window interface to Hydrological Simulation Program-FPRTRAN (WinHSPF) was applied for assessment of Soyang Dam watershed. WinHSPF calibration was performed using monitoring data from 2000 to 2004 to simulate stream flow. Water quality (water temperature, DO, BOD, nitrate, total organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, total organic phosphorus and total phosphorus) was calibrated. Calibration results for dry-days and wet-days simulation were reasonably matched with observed data in stream flow, temperature, DO, BOD and nutrient simulation. Some deviation in the model results were caused by the lack of measured watershed data, hydraulic structure data and meteorological data. It was found that most of pollutant loading was contributed by nonpoint source pollution showing about $98.6%{\sim}99.0%$. The WinHSPF BMPRAC was applied to evaluate the water quality improvement. These scenarios included constructed wetland for controlling nonpoint source poilution and wet detention pond. The results illustrated that reasonably reduced pollutant loadin. Overall, BASINS/WinHSPF was found to be applicable and can be a powerful tool in pollutant loading and BMP efficiency estimation from the watershed.

Analysis of PM2.5 Impact and Human Exposure from Worst-Case of Mt. Baekdu Volcanic Eruption (백두산 분화 Worst-case로 인한 우리나라 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 영향분석 및 노출평가)

  • Park, Jae Eun;Kim, Hyerim;Sunwoo, Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_4
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    • pp.1267-1276
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    • 2020
  • To quantitatively predict the impacts of large-scale volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu on air quality and damage around the Korean Peninsula, a three-dimensional chemistry-transport modeling system (Weather Research & Forecasting - Sparse Matrix Operation Kernel Emission - Comunity Multi-scale Air Quality) was adopted. A worst-case meteorology scenario was selected to estimate the direct impact on Korea. This study applied the typical worst-case scenarios that are likely to cause significant damage to Korea among worst-case volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu in the past decade (2005~2014) and assumed a massive VEI 4 volcanic eruption on May 16, 2012, to analyze the concentration of PM2.5 caused by the volcanic eruption. The effects of air quality in each region-cities, counties, boroughs-were estimated, and vulnerable areas were derived by conducting an exposure assessment reflecting vulnerable groups. Moreover, the effects of cities, counties, and boroughs were analyzed with a high-resolution scale (9 km × 9 km) to derive vulnerable areas within the regions. As a result of analyzing the typical worst-case volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu, a discrepancy was shown in areas between high PM2.5 concentration, high population density, and where vulnerable groups are concentrated. From the result, PM2.5 peak concentration was about 24,547 ㎍/㎥, which is estimated to be a more serious situation than the eruption of Mt. St. Helensin 1980, which is known for 540 million tons of volcanic ash. Paju, Gimpo, Goyang, Ganghwa, Sancheong, Hadong showed to have a high PM2.5 concentration. Paju appeared to be the most vulnerable area from the exposure assessment. While areas estimated with a high concentration of air pollutants are important, it is also necessary to develop plans and measures considering densely populated areas or areas with high concentrations of susceptible population or vulnerable groups. Also, establishing measures for each vulnerable area by selecting high concentration areas within cities, counties, and boroughs rather than establishing uniform measures for all regions is needed. This study will provide the foundation for developing the standards for disaster declaration and preemptive response systems for volcanic eruptions.

An Exploration For Future Emerging Technologies by Science Mapping and a Dynamic Portfolio Setting for Government R&D Strategy (과학지도 작성을 통한 미래기술 발굴 및 정부R&D의 동적 투자방향성 설정 연구)

  • Yang, He-Young;Son, Suk-Ho;Han, Min-Kyu;Han, Jong-Min;Yim, Hyun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2011
  • Korean government built "2040 Science and Technology Future Vision" in order to show positive future scenarios and suggest a long-term guideline for a progress in science and technology. The S&T Future Vision was built based on an analysis of global megatrends and a prospect of domestic social change. After building S&T Future Vision, the "Government R&E Strategy"s was established as a follow-up action plan. The Government R&D Strategy consists of lists of future emerging technologies for future leadership, government R&D investment status and investment portfolio plans. Exploring future emerging technologies aggressively and making a governmental R&D strategic policy are requirements for national competitiveness, leadership in the world. Therefore search and selection for future emerging technologies is getting more and more important recently. Generally qualitative methodologies have been used such as expert-panel discussion method and portfolio analysis with expert valuation method in order to explore future technologies. These experts-based qualitative methodologies are well defined but lacking in some objectivity because size of expert-panels has limitations. We suggest a quantitative methodology, science mapping method to compensate this shortcoming in this study. There is another limitation related governmental R&D strategy which is that general R&D portfolios are static until a point of technology realization. We also propose a dynamic R&D investment portfolio which present different portfolios at a intermediate point and a point of technology realization. We expect this try with science mapping method and a dynamic R&D portfolio could strengthen strategic aspect of government R&D policy.

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Decay Rate and Nutrients Dynamics during Decomposition of Oak Roots (상수리나무 뿌리 분해 및 분해과정에 따른 영양염류 변화)

  • 문형태
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2004
  • Weight loss and nutrients dynamics during decomposition of oak roots (diameter classes: R₁〈0.2㎝, 0.5㎝〈R₂〈1㎝, 1㎝〈R₃〈2㎝, 2㎝.〈R₄〈4㎝) (Quercus acutissima) were studied for 33-months in Kongiu, Korea. After 33-months, decomposition rate of R₁, R₂, R₃ and R₄ was 49.6%, 47.5%, 66.4% and 66.1%, respectively. The decomposition constant(k) for R₁, R₂, R₃, and R₄ was 0.249/yr, 0.234/yr, 0.397/yr and 0.393/yr, respectively. Larger diameter class of the root lost more weight than smaller diameter class. N concentration in decomposing oak roots increased in all diameter classes. After 33-months, remaining N in R₁, R₂, R₃ and R₄ was 66.5%, 80.7%, 84.4% and 44.4%, respectively. K concentration in decomposing oak roots decreased in early part of decomposition and then increased in later stage of decomposition. After 33-months, remaining P in R₁, R₂, R₃ and R₄ was 64.7%, 62.4%, 93.1% and 30.7%, respectively. K concentration in decomposing oak roots decreased rapidly in early stage of decomposition. Remaining K in R₁, R₂, R₃ and R₄ was 11.6%, 10.6%, 5.9% and 7.7%, respectively. Ca concentration in decomposing oak roots showed different among diameter classes. After 33-months, remaining Ca in R₁, R₂, R₃ and R₄ was 66.2%, 51.0%, 39.1% and 48.3%, respectively. Initial concentration of Mg in oak root was higher in smaller diameter class. After 33-months, remaining Mg in R₁, R₂, R₃ and R₄ was 15.3%, 29.9%, 24.5% and 69.4%, respectively.

A Study on Storytelling of Yeongweal-palkyung Applied by Halo Effect of King Danjong' Sorrowful Story (단종애사(端宗哀史)의 후광효과를 적용한 영월팔경의 스토리탤링 전략)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2008
  • With the awareness that Sinyeongwol Sipgyeong(ten scenic spots in Yeongwol) were designed too hastily and only for PR purposes after the change in the tourism environment, this paper indicates that most tourism and culture sources in Yeongwol are related to King Danjong, the sixth king of the Joseon Dynasty. This study proposes a 'Storytelling Plan' for the landscape content called 'Cultural Landscapes - Yeongwol Palgyeong(eight scenic spots in Yeongwol)' after reviewing types and content of Yeongwol Palgyeong through the halo effect of the well-known sad history of King Danjong and the cultural value of Yeongwol. The significance of the unity of the historic site and neighboring landscape is focused on by investigating the anaphoric relations between cultural landscape texts('Yeongwol Palgyeong') and historic content(the sad history of King Danjong). For this, the cultural lnddscape of Yeongwol has been framed and layered to make spatial texts. To emphasize the 'Telling' as well as the 'Story,' interesting episodes have been reviewed to discover a motive. To diversify the 'Telling' methods, absorptive landscape factors have been classified as 'Place,' 'Object' and 'Visual Point.' In addition the storytelling of Yeongwol Palgyeong was examined in consideration of the story and background of 'Yeongwol Palgyeong - Sad Story of King Danjong' and the interaction of a variety of cultural content by suggesting micro-content such as infotainment and edutainment as absorptive landscape factors. In order to make the storytelling plan available in practice as an alternative plan for Yeongwol Tourism, a visual point should be properly set to make the landscape look sufficiently dynamic. In addition, real landscape routes and narration scenarios should be prepared as well. Professional landscape interpreters who are well informed of the natural features of Yeongwol and the history of King Danjong should be brought into the project, and Internet and digital technology-based strategies should be developed.

A Study on Development of Management Targets and Evaluation of Target Achievement for Non-point Source Pollution Management in Saemangeum Watershed (새만금 비점오염원 관리지역에서의 목표설정 및 달성도 평가방법론 연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Jung;Park, Bae-Kyung;Kim, Yong-Seok;Rhew, Doug-Hee;Jung, Kwang-Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.37 no.8
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    • pp.480-491
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    • 2015
  • In this study, methods using LDC (Load Duration Curve) and watershed model were suggested to develope management targets and evaluate target achievement for non-point source pollution management considering watershed and runoff characteristics and possibility for achievement of target. These methods were applied for Saemangeum watershed which was designated as nonpoint source pollution management area recently. Flow duration interval of 5 to 40% was selected as flow range for management considering runoff characteristics and TP was selected as indicator for management. Management targets were developed based on scenarios for non-point source pollutant reduction of management priority areas using LDC method and HSPF model which was calibrated using 4 years data (2009~2012). In the scenario of LID, road sweeping and 50% reduction in CSOs and untreated sewage at Jeonju A20 and 30% reduction in fertilizer and 50% in livestock NPS at Mankyung C03, Dongjin A14 and KobuA14, management targets for Mangyung bridge, Dongjin bridge, Jeonju stream and Gunpo bridge were developed as TP 0.38, 0.18, 0.64 and 0.16 mg/L respectively. When TP loads at the target stations were assumed to have been reduced by a certain percentage (10%), management targets for those target stations were developed as TP 0.35, 0.17, 0.60 and 0.15 mg/L respectively. The result of this study is expected to be used as reference material for management master plan, implementation plan and implementation assessment for non-point source management area.