• 제목/요약/키워드: scenarios

검색결과 5,348건 처리시간 0.031초

지진해일 급습에 대비한 대피 시뮬레이션 (Evacuation Simulation against Unexpected Tsunami Attacks)

  • 조용식;김지훈
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제43권12호
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    • pp.1075-1082
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    • 2010
  • 지진해일 재해를 저감하는 가장 바람직하고 경제적인 방법은 예측하지 못하는 지진해일의 급습이 예상되는 해안을 따라 비상대처계획을 수립하는 것이다. 비상대처계획은 과거에 발생했던 지진해일과 사전에 기획된 시나리오에 근거하여 작성해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 비상대처계획의 일부분으로 임원항에 대하여 기획된 시나리오에 따라 대피 시뮬레이션을 제작하였다. 제작된 대피 시뮬레이션은 관련기관에서 지진해일 급습에 대비한 방재훈련에 이용될 수 있다.

전환사채 주식전환을 위한 조건부 VaR 최적화 (Conditional Value-at-Risk Optimization for Conversion of Convertible Bonds)

  • 박구현;심은택
    • 경영과학
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2011
  • In this study we suggested two optimization models to answer a question from an investor standpoint : how many convertible bonds should one convert, and how many keep? One model minimizes certain risk to the minimum required expected return, the other maximizes the expected return subject to the maximum acceptable risk. In comparison with Markowitz portfolio models, which use the variance of return, our models used Conditional Value-at-Risk(CVaR) for risk measurement. As a coherent measurement, CVaR overcomes the shortcomings of Value-at-Risk(VaR). But there are still difficulties in solving CVaR including optimization models. For this reason, we adopted Rockafellar and Uryasev's[18, 19] approach. Then we could approximate the models as linear programming problems with scenarios. We also suggested to extend the models with credit risk, and applied examples of our models to Hynix 207CB, a convertible bond issued by the global semiconductor company Hynix.

Probabilistic Reliability Based Grid Expansion Planning of Power System Including Wind Turbine Generators

  • Cho, Kyeong-Hee;Park, Jeong-Je;Choi, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제7권5호
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    • pp.698-704
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    • 2012
  • This paper proposes a new methodology for evaluating the probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of composite power system including the Wind Turbine Generators. The proposed model includes capacity limitations and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. It proposes to handle the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines, transformers and wind resources of WTG, etc.) by a Composite power system Equivalent Load Duration Curve (CMELDC)-based model considering wind turbine generators (WTG). The model is derived from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on an effective nodal load model including WTGs. Several scenarios are used to choose the optimal solution among various scenarios featuring new candidate lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by case study using Jeju power system in South Korea.

수리계획모형을 활용한 대도시 폐기물 관리 시스템의 광역화 운영 계획에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Regionalization of the Municipal Solid Waste Management System Using a Mathematical Programming Model)

  • 김재희;김승권;이용대
    • 경영과학
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2003
  • The increased environmental concerns and the emphasis on recycling are gradually shifting the orientation of municipal solid waste (MSW) management. This paper is designed to evaluate regionalization programs for MSW management system. We developed a mixed intiger network programming (MIP) model to identify environment-friendly, cost-effective expansion plans for regionalization scenarios considered. The MIP model is a dynamic capacity expansion model based on the network flow model that depicts the MSW management cycle. In particular, our model is designed to determine the optimal form of regionalization using binary variables. We apply this model to assess the regionalization program of Seoul Metropolitan City, which includes three scenarios such as 1) districting, 2) regionalization with neighboring self-governing districts, and 3) g1obalization with all districts. We demonstrate how our model can be used to plan the MSW system. The results indicate that optimal regionalization with nearby self-governing districts can eliminate unnecessary landfills and expansions if jurisdictional obstacles are removed.

온라인 쇼핑몰에서 보상의 의미와 감동 효과 -손편지와 사은품- (Meaning and Delightful Effect of Rewards in Online Shopping Malls -A Hand-written Letter and a Free Gift-)

  • 박경애
    • 한국의류학회지
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    • 제40권5호
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    • pp.867-878
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the effects on customer delight, satisfaction, and repurchase intention for two reward types by online shopping malls, a hand-written letter and a free gift. Two scenarios to manipulate the rewards provided by online shopping malls were developed. Study 1 revealed that the effects of a hand-written letter on delight and satisfaction were higher than those of a free gift; in addition, delight was more important than satisfaction for repurchase intention. Study 2 examined product quality that is the core function of online purchases by developing 4 scenarios that considered product quality and rewards. The result showed that high product quality caused delight and satisfaction while rewards did not. When product quality was considered, satisfaction influenced repurchase intention more than delight. The study implies that the core function of product quality is more important than rewards for customer delight, satisfaction, and repurchase in online shopping malls.

석유화학 공장에서의 가상 사고 시나리오 생성 모델

  • 강미진;이영순;문일;윤동현;이영준
    • 한국산업안전학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국안전학회 2000년도 춘계 학술논문발표회 논문집
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    • pp.196-196
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents an approach for modeling of the generation of a set of credible accident scenarios for a petrochemical plant, which will be used to perform quantitative hazard assessments such as the consequence assessment, FTA or ETA. This approach is carried out in ways of identifying, classifying a set of major components and elements for scenarios generation by analysis of the informations on various actual accidents, and thus setting priorities of both factors of likelihood and consequence on each component or element identified.

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팔당 유역 수질사고 시나리오에 따른 취수 안전시간 예측 (Prediction on Safety Time of Water Intake at Paldang Reservior According to Scenarios of Water Pollution)

  • 백경오
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.135-140
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the behavior of pollutant was calculated at Paldang reservior according to several scenarios of the accidental water pollution by means of the numerical models for forecasting water quality. Also managemental plans for situation of the accidental water pollution happening at Paldang watershed were simulated. According to the simulating results, a plan of increase of discharge at Cheongpyeong dam reduced the peak concentration of pollutants, whereas extended the time for stopping water intake. Another plan, drop of water elevation at Paldang dam, decreased seriously the time for stopping water intake although there were a little effect to decrease the peak concentration. Thus it was concluded that appropriate combinations of the plans for the increase discharge and the dropping water elevation should be used to deal with the accidental water pollution at Paldang watershed.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry facade walls: development, application and validation of a new scoring method

  • Ferreira, Tiago M.;Vicentea, Romeu;Varum, Humberto
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제50권4호
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    • pp.541-561
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    • 2014
  • This paper approaches the issue of seismic vulnerability assessment strategies for facade walls of traditional masonry buildings through the development of a methodology and its subsequent application to over 600 building facades from the old building stock of the historic city centre of Coimbra. Using the post-earthquake damage assessment of masonry buildings in L'Aquila, Italy, an analytical function was developed and calibrated to estimate the mean damage grade for masonry facade walls. Having defined the vulnerability function for facade walls, damage scenarios were calculated and subsequently used in the development of an emergency planning tool and in the elaboration of an access route proposal for the case study of the historic city centre of Coimbra. Finally, the methodology was pre-validated through the comparison of a set of results obtained from its application and also resourcing to a widely accepted mechanical method on the description of the out-of-plane behaviour of facade walls.

Structural robustness of RC frame buildings under threat-independent damage scenarios

  • Ventura, Antonio;De Biagi, Valerio;Chiaia, Bernardino
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제65권6호
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    • pp.689-698
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    • 2018
  • This study focuses on a novel procedure for the robustness assessment of reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures under threat-independent damage scenarios. The procedure is derived from coupled dynamic and non-linear static analyses. Two robustness indicators are defined and the method is applied to two RC frame buildings. The first building was designed for gravity load and earthquake resistance in accordance with Eurocode 8. The second was designed according to the tie force (TF) method, one of the design quantitative procedures for enhancing resistance to progressive collapse. In addition, in order to demonstrate the suitability and applicability of the TF method, the structural robustness and resistance to progressive collapse of the two designs is compared.

Numerical evaluation for vibration-based damage detection in wind turbine tower structure

  • Nguyen, Tuan-Cuong;Huynh, Thanh-Canh;Kim, Jeong-Tae
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.657-675
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the feasibility of vibration-based damage detection methods for the wind turbine tower (WTT) structure is evaluated. First, a frequency-based damage detection (FBDD) is outlined. A damage-localization algorithm is visited to locate damage from changes in natural frequencies. Second, a mode-shape-based damage detection (MBDD) method is outlined. A damage index algorithm is utilized to localize damage from estimating changes in modal strain energies. Third, a finite element (FE) model based on a real WTT is established by using commercial software, Midas FEA. Several damage scenarios are numerically simulated in the FE model of the WTT. Finally, both FBDD and MBDD methods are employed to identify the damage scenarios simulated in the WTT. Damage regions are chosen close to the bolt connection of WTT segments; from there, the stiffness of damage elements are reduced.