• 제목/요약/키워드: scenarios

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상·하류 연계 모의를 통한 기후변화에 따른 농경지 침수면적 변화 분석 (Analysis of Inundation Area in the Agricultural Land under Climate Change through Coupled Modeling for Upstream and Downstream)

  • 박성재;곽지혜;김지혜;김석현;이현지;김시내;강문성
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제66권1호
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 2024
  • Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

자율주행차량 기능안전 시스템 기반 사고 시나리오 도출 (Traffic Accidents Scenarios Based on Autonomous Vehicle Functional Safety Systems)

  • 김희수;유용식;한효림;조민제;송태진
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.264-283
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    • 2023
  • 자율주행차량 사고는 일반차량 사고와 다르게 기술적 문제, 환경, 운전자와의 상호작용 등 다양한 요인에 기인한 사고 발생 가능성이 존재한다. 향후 자율주행 기술의 진보로 기존의 사고원인 이외에도 새로운 이슈들이 대두될 것으로 예상되며, 이에 대응하기 위한 다양한 시나리오 기반의 접근법이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 자율주행 사고 리포트인, CA DMV collision report와 자율주행모드 해제 보고서인 Disengagement report, 자율주행 실제 사고영상을 수집하여 자율주행차량 교통사고 시나리오를 개발하였다. 시나리오는 ISO 26262의 기능안전 시스템 failure mode에 기반하여 도출되었으며, 자율주행 기능의 다양한 이슈를 반영하고자 하였다. 본 연구를 통해 도출된 자율주행차량 시나리오는 향후 다양한 자율주행차량 교통사고 예방과 대비에 기여할 뿐만 아니라 자율주행 기술의 안전성을 향상시키는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 기대한다.

NEMO에서의 이동 시나리오 분류 및 빠른 핸드오버 성능 분석 (Handover Mobility Scenario Classification and Fast Handover Performance Analysis in NEMO Network)

  • 최승준;수동;유상조
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제31권11B호
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    • pp.987-996
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문에서는 NEMO 환경에서 핸드오버를 통해 발생할 수 있는 이동 시나리오의 정의와 핸드오버 실패시의 지연 및 패킷 손실과 전송비용의 분석을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 네트워크 노드의 이동성을 지원하며 핸드오버 절차의 성능향상을 위한 메커니즘 중 하나인 빠른 핸드오버 (FMIPv6)와 계층적 이동 IPv6 구조 (HMIPv6)가 NEMO와 결합했을 때 발생할 수 있는 네트워크 개체의 다양한 이동 시나리오를 분류하고, 각 시나리오에서의 핸드오버 실패의 경우를, 빠른 핸드오버 절차에 기반한 시점을 기준으로 정의하였으며 이동 네트워크 개체의 핸드오버가 실패했을 경우 절차를 완료하는데 필요한 지연 및 그 시간 동안의 패킷 손실과 전송비용 측면에서 분석했다.

A Study on the Development of App Ecosystem based Smart Home

  • Moon, Junsik;Park, Chan Young
    • Architectural research
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2016
  • Smart Home has achieved remarkable developments over the past few decades. In the ICT(Information and Communications Technology) field, 'app ecosystem'-a collection of multiple devices such as mobile phones and tablets, software (operating system and development tools), companies (manufacturers, carriers, app-stores, etc.) and the process through which data is transferred/shared by a user from one device to another device or by the device itself-has come into wide use since the advent of the smart phone. Due to the synergy effect of the 'app ecosystem', it has been applied to various fields such as televisions and automobile industries. As a result, both the Smart TV and connected vehicle have developed their own ecosystem. Although much research has been conducted on these two ecosystems, there is a lack of research regarding 'App Ecosystem based Smart Home' (AESH). This research focuses on the building scenarios based on 'Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding, and Acting (T.A.I.D.A), a future prediction method process. Rather than taking an approach from the perspective of providing and applying advanced technology for research on building future scenarios, this paper focuses on research from the perspective of architectural planning. As a result, two future scenarios of AESH are suggested.

유비쿼터스 공간의 효용성 검증을 위한 가상 스마트 테스트베드 시스템의 제안 (Suggesting a Virtual Smart Test-bed to Verify Effectiveness for Ubiquitous Space)

  • 한수연;최진원
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국HCI학회 2006년도 학술대회 1부
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    • pp.741-746
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    • 2006
  • Future space is currently getting a great deal of attention to apply ubiquitous computing technology. At the same time, various ubiquitous technology-based products are being developed with service scenarios in the views of diverse user groups predicted. Since these service models and scenarios need to be tested to verify effectiveness, it requires researchers to predict spatial shapes and service scenarios for future domestic environment that fulfills diverse future spatial requirements including ecological and user-oriented spaces, extended amenity getting maximum benefits from technology, etc. To support these developments, the need to make a physical test-bed, a real building model, is essential. However building a physical test-bed generally is economically expensive and even if the test-bed could be settled, it must be carefully designed before it is built In this paper, we suggest a virtual smart test-bed, called "V-PlaceLab", using virtual reality techniques. This system allows not only to inspect a scenario with the aid of computer simulation on a virtual environment, but also to design a virtual test-bed mentioned above.

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Statistical Approach for Derivation of Quantitative Acceptance Criteria for Radioactive Wastes to Near Surface Disposal Facility

  • Park Jin Beak;Park Joo Wan;Lee Eun Yong;Kim Chang Lak
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제35권5호
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    • pp.387-398
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    • 2003
  • For reference human intrusion scenarios constructed in previous study, a probabilistic safety assessment to derive the radionuclide concentration limits for the low- and intermediate- level radioactive waste disposal facility is conducted. Statistical approach by the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is introduced and new assumptions about the disposal facility system are examined and discussed. In our previous study of deterministic approach, the post construction scenarios appeared as most limiting scenario to derive the radionuclide concentration limits. Whereas, in this statistical approach, the post drilling and the post construction scenarios are mutually competing for the scenario selection according to which radionuclides are more important in safety assessment context. Introduction of new assumption shows that the post drilling scenario can play an important role as the limiting scenario instead of the post-construction scenario. When we compare the concentration limits between the previous and this study, concentrations of radionuclides such as Nb-94, Cs-137 and alpha-emitting radionuclides show elevated values than the case of the previous study. Remaining radionuclides such as Sr-90, Tc-99 I-129, Ni-59 and Ni-63 show lower values than the case of the previous study.

탄성도 이론을 이용한 낙동강유역 난분해성 용존 유기탄소 미래 추세 분석 (Analysis of Future Trends for Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Nakdong River Basin using Elasticity Theory)

  • 박윤경;최대규;이재운;강임석;김상단
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.476-488
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    • 2013
  • Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon (RDOC) is becoming more important index on management of water quality, water regulation as well as ecosystem management. We analyzed trends of RDOC using elasticity in the Nakdong river basin. If climate elasticity of streamflow is positive, change of streamflow can be defined by the proportional change in a climatic variable such as precipitation and temperature. Elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and elasticity of RDOC to precipitation were estimated in the present, and we also analyzed the variation of elasticity in the future using climate change scenarios, RCP 8.5/ 4.5. Mean streamflow elasticity is 1.655, and mean RDOC elasticity is 1.983. RDOC is more sensitive to precipitation change than streamflow. The variation of RDOC is directly proportion to precipitation in all scenarios, but the Load of RDOC is dependent on precipitation as well as others. There is a need for additional correlation analysis between RDOC and other factors for accurate prediction.

토양수분과 식생 스트레스 동역학에 기후변화가 미치는 영향 (The Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Soil Water and Plant Water Stress)

  • 한수희;김상단
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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    • pp.52-56
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    • 2009
  • In this study a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress when subject to stochastic precipitation conditions. The newly developed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress is investigated under climate change scenarios. This model is based on the cumulant expansion theory, and has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of probability distribution function (PDF), from which one can obtain the ensemble average behavior of the dynamics. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the results obtained from observations, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The plant water stress simulation, also, shows two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. Moreover, with all the simulation results with climate change scenarios, it can be concluded that the future soil water and plant water stress dynamics will differently behave with different climate change scenarios.

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SAP ERP 시스템 교육을 위한 교육용 가상기업 구현 전략 (A New Effective SAP ERP Education Approach Through The Development of Educational Virtual Company)

  • 김영렬
    • 한국산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2011
  • 본 논문은 대학에서의 SAP R/3를 이용한 ERP 교육을 하는데 있어서 실습의 중요성을 강조하고 설습의 효과를 높이기 위해서 교육용 가상기업을 생성할 필요성을 주창하고 있다. SAP R/3 시스템에서 교육생들이 직접 가상 기업을 설정하고, 해당 모듈 내에서 프로세스를 생성하는 것을 직접 구현 한 사례를 보여줌으로써 ERP 교육의 효과를 보다 높일 수 있는 새로운 실습 교육 방법을 제시하고 있다.

통일 대비 북한 농업생산기반시설 확충방안 - 경제성 분석을 중심으로 - (Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion Plan for North Korea Providing for Unification of the Korean Peninsula - An Economic Feasibility Analysis -)

  • 권순국;김관수;이정재;이제명;박창근
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제48권6호
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2006
  • We propose an Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion Plan (AIEP) for North Korea following unification from the standpoint of a united Korea's social stability. We predict the food demand after unification, according to four different development scenarios based on the AIEP. These scenarios include meeting a self-sufficient level in the staple food crop, satisfying long-term food supply and demand for the North Korean people, achieving a level of North Korean food consumption comparable to that of South Korea, and maintaining productivity to stabilize of North Korea's rural society. We present the results of a 'benefit-cost' analysis in meeting the production targets of predicted food demands after unification from a civil engineering perspective. We found that the estimated total costs would range from 15.2 to 43.0 billion dollars depending on the particular AIEP scenario. In our analysis, all of the four scenarios presented above demonstrated a high degree of economic validity. We conclude that the AIEP is a necessary and economically valid project for a united Korea's future because it would forestall the collapse of North Korea's rural communities, thereby preventing tremendous economic losses upon unification.