• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Assessment of water supply reliability in the Geum River Basin using univariate climate response functions: a case study for changing instreamflow managements (단변량 기후반응함수를 이용한 금강수계 이수안전도 평가: 하천유지유량 관리 변화를 고려한 사례연구)

  • Kim, Daeha;Choi, Si Jung;Jang, Su Hyung;Kang, Dae Hu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.993-1003
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    • 2023
  • Due to the increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the global mean temperature has risen by 1.1℃ compared to pre-industrial levels, and significant changes are expected in functioning of water supply systems. In this study, we assessed impacts of climate change and instreamflow management on water supply reliability in the Geum River basin, Korea. We proposed univariate climate response functions, where mean precipitation and potential evaporation were coupled as an explanatory variable, to assess impacts of climate stress on multiple water supply reliabilities. To this end, natural streamflows were generated in the 19 sub-basins with the conceptual GR6J model. Then, the simulated streamflows were input into the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The dynamic optimization by WEAP allowed us to assess water supply reliability against the 2020 water demand projections. Results showed that when minimizing the water shortage of the entire river basin under the 1991-2020 climate, water supply reliability was lowest in the Bocheongcheon among the sub-basins. In a scenario where the priority of instreamflow maintenance is adjusted to be the same as municipal and industrial water use, water supply reliability in the Bocheongcheon, Chogang, and Nonsancheon sub-basins significantly decreased. The stress tests with 325 sets of climate perturbations showed that water supply reliability in the three sub-basins considerably decreased under all the climate stresses, while the sub-basins connected to large infrastructures did not change significantly. When using the 2021-2050 climate projections with the stress test results, water supply reliability in the Geum River basin was expected to generally improve, but if the priority of instreamflow maintenance is increased, water shortage is expected to worsen in geographically isolated sub-basins. Here, we suggest that the climate response function can be established by a single explanatory variable to assess climate change impacts of many sub-basin's performance simultaneously.

An Analysis of Process-oriented Design in the Invited Entries of International Competition for the Master Plan of the Yongsan Park, Korea (용산공원 설계 국제공모 출품작에 나타난 프로세스적 설계 분석)

  • So, Jin;Sung, Jong-Sang;Pae, Jeong-Hann
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2013
  • Designing large parks such as Yongsan Park requires the open-ended process-oriented design approach in complex layers rather than the conventional self-completed master plan method. This study aims to examine the characteristics of process-oriented design in the eight invited entries of "International Competition for the Master Plan of the Yongsan Park, Korea"(2012). For this purpose, it analyzed each entry according to three criteria: objects of process-oriented approach, time factor and its features of phasing plan, and presentation method of the process. This analysis can not only critically review the current level of the process-centered design methodology but also suggest strategic future directions for Yongsan Park. The objects of process-oriented design in the eight works were order of physical space development, restoration process of ecosystem, recovering process of publicity, and economic operation and management. Main considerations in the objects were connections to adjacent urban fabrics, links to regional green and water system, reuse of existing buildings and infrastructures in the site. The temporal criteria of the phasing plan had two aspects. One was planning a certain time and period, and the other was just establishing an order of phases. Most of the presentation method of process was the phasing plan, but some of the entries suggested a scenario plan. The eight works of "International Competition for the Master Plan of Yongsan Park" did not attempt process-oriented designs entirely and completely. Rather, they tried to introduce the phasing plan as part of a process-centered design. Also, they took an eclectic approach between master plan and process-oriented design instead of rejecting the conventional master plan approach.

Performance of Drip Irrigation System in Banana Cultuivation - Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

  • Kumar, K. Nirmal Ravi;Kumar, M. Suresh
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2016
  • India is largest producer of banana in the world producing 29.72 million tonnes from an area of 0.803 million ha with a productivity of 35.7 MT ha-1 and accounted for 15.48 and 27.01 per cent of the world's area and production respectively (www.nhb.gov.in). In India, Tamil Nadu leads other states both in terms of area and production followed by Maharashtra, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. In Rayalaseema region of Andhra Pradesh, Kurnool district had special reputation in the cultivation of banana in an area of 5765 hectares with an annual production of 2.01 lakh tonnes in the year 2012-13 and hence, it was purposively chosen for the study. On $23^{rd}$ November 2003, the Government of Andhra Pradesh has commenced a comprehensive project called 'Andhra Pradesh Micro Irrigation Project (APMIP)', first of its kind in the world so as to promote water use efficiency. APMIP is offering 100 per cent of subsidy in case of SC, ST and 90 per cent in case of other categories of farmers up to 5.0 acres of land. In case of acreage between 5-10 acres, 70 per cent subsidy and acreage above 10, 50 per cent of subsidy is given to the farmer beneficiaries. The sampling frame consists of Kurnool district, two mandals, four villages and 180 sample farmers comprising of 60 farmers each from Marginal (<1ha), Small (1-2ha) and Other (>2ha) categories. A well structured pre-tested schedule was employed to collect the requisite information pertaining to the performance of drip irrigation among the sample farmers and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was employed to analyze the performance of drip irrigation in banana farms. The performance of drip irrigation was assessed based on the parameters like: Land Development Works (LDW), Fertigation costs (FC), Volume of water supplied (VWS), Annual maintenance costs of drip irrigation (AMC), Economic Status of the farmer (ES), Crop Productivity (CP) etc. The first four parameters are considered as inputs and last two as outputs for DEA modelling purposes. The findings revealed that, the number of farms operating at CRS are more in number in other farms (46.66%) followed by marginal (45%) and small farms (28.33%). Similarly, regarding the number of farmers operating at VRS, the other farms are again more in number with 61.66 per cent followed by marginal (53.33%) and small farms (35%). With reference to scale efficiency, marginal farms dominate the scenario with 57 per cent followed by others (55%) and small farms (50%). At pooled level, 26.11 per cent of the farms are being operated at CRS with an average technical efficiency score of 0.6138 i.e., 47 out of 180 farms. Nearly 40 per cent of the farmers at pooled level are being operated at VRS with an average technical efficiency score of 0.7241. As regards to scale efficiency, nearly 52 per cent of the farmers (94 out of 180 farmers) at pooled level, either performed at the optimum scale or were close to the optimum scale (farms having scale efficiency values equal to or more than 0.90). Majority of the farms (39.44%) are operating at IRS and only 29 per cent of the farmers are operating at DRS. This signifies that, more resources should be provided to these farms operating at IRS and the same should be decreased towards the farms operating at DRS. Nearly 32 per cent of the farms are operating at CRS indicating efficient utilization of resources. Log linear regression model was used to analyze the major determinants of input use efficiency in banana farms. The input variables considered under DEA model were again considered as influential factors for the CRS obtained for the three categories of farmers. Volume of water supplied ($X_1$) and fertigation cost ($X_2$) are the major determinants of banana farms across all the farmer categories and even at pooled level. In view of their positive influence on the CRS, it is essential to strengthen modern irrigation infrastructure like drip irrigation and offer more fertilizer subsidies to the farmer to enhance the crop production on cost-effective basis in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh, India. This study further suggests that, the present era of Information Technology will help the irrigation management in the context of generating new techniques, extension, adoption and information. It will also guide the farmers in irrigation scheduling and quantifying the irrigation water requirements in accordance with the water availability in a particular season. So, it is high time for the Government of India to pay adequate attention towards the applications of 'Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and its applications in irrigation water management' for facilitating the deployment of Decision Supports Systems (DSSs) at various levels of planning and management of water resources in the country.

Effects of Differentiated Temperature Based on Growing Season Temperature on Growth and Physiological Response in Chinese Cabbage 'Chunkwang' (고랭지 여름배추 주산지의 기온을 기준으로 한 수준별 온도가 배추 '춘광'의 생육 및 생리반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Son, In-Chang;Moon, Kyung Hwan;Song, Eun Young;Oh, Soonja;Seo, Hyeongho;Moon, Young Eel;Yang, Jinyoung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.254-260
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    • 2015
  • Changes of the growth, quality and physiological response of Chinese cabbage cv 'Chunkwang' in response to five different temperature treatments based on climate change scenario were investigated during the growing season. The treatments consisted of normal year temperature $-2.0^{\circ}C$ (I), normal year temperature (II; Control group), normal year temperature $+2.0^{\circ}C$ (III), normal year temperature $+4.0^{\circ}C$ (IV), and normal year temperature $+6.0^{\circ}C$ (V). Regarding fresh weight, number of leaves, and leaf area were high in group IV, and V before the head formation stage, but it has decreased during the later growth period. Rate of frangibleness sympton was the highest in group V as 85.7%, and it was decreased in group IV (64.3%), group III (28.6%), group II (14.3%), and group I (7.1%). Regarding photosynthetic rate, group III, IV, and V showed relatively high photosynthetic rate at 20 DAP but it was reduced dramatically during the later growth period. Transpiration and stomatal conductance showed the similar trend with the photosynthetic rate. When comparing the chlorophyll fluorescence reaction of each treatment group at 50 DAP, Fv/Fm in group I was highest as 8.04 among all treatment groups and the lowest in group IV as 7.15.

A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

A Study on the Ecosystem Services Value Assessment According to City Development: In Case of the Busan Eco-Delta City Development (도시개발에 따른 생태계서비스 가치 평가 연구: 부산 에코델타시티 사업을 대상으로)

  • Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Youngsoo;Lee, Sangdon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.427-439
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    • 2019
  • Natural environmental ecology ofthe environmental impact assessment(EIA)is very much lacking in quantitative evaluation. Thus, this study attempted to evaluate quantitative assessment for ecosystem service in the site of Eco-delta project in Busan. As a part of climate change adaptation, this study evaluated and compared with the value for carbon fixation and habitat quality using the InVEST model before and after development with three alternatives of land-use change. Carbon fixation showed 216,674.48 Mg of C (year 2000), and 203,474.25 Mg of C (year 2015)reducing about 6.1%, and in the future of year 2030 the value was dropped to 120,490.84 Mg of C which is 40% lower than year 2015. Alternative 3 of land use planning was the best in terms of carbon fixation showing 6,811.31 Mg of C. Habitat quality also changed from 0.57 (year 2000), 0.35 (year 2015), and 0.21 (year 2030) with continued degradation as development goes further. Alternative 3 also was the highest with 0.21(Alternative 1 : 0.20, Alternative 2 : 0.18). In conclusion,this study illustrated that quantitative method forland use change in the process of EIA can helpdecision making for stakeholders anddevelopers with serving the best scenario forlow impact of carbon. Also it can help better for land use plan, greenhouse gas and natural environmental assets in EIA. This study could be able to use in the environmental policy with numerical data of ecosystem and prediction. Supplemented with detailed analysis and accessibility of basic data, this method will make it possible for wide application in the ecosystem evaluation.

A Study on the Consciousness Survey of Improvement of Emergency Rescue Training -Based on the Fire Fighting Organizations in Gangwon Province- (긴급구조훈련 개선에 관한 의식조사 연구 -강원도 소방조직을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Yunjung;Koo, Wonhoi;Baek, Minho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.440-449
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Fire-fighting organizations are the very first agencies that take actions at a disaster scene, and emergency rescue training is carried out for prompt and systematic response. However, there is a need for a change due to the limitations in emergency rescue trainings such as perfunctory trainings or trainings without considering regional or environmental characteristics. Method: This study is to conduct theoretical review with regard to emergency rescue training and present a measure to improve the emergency rescue training through attitude survey targeting fire-fighting organizations in Gangwon area. Result: Facilities that cause difficulties when doing emergency rescue activity were mostly hazardous material storage and processing facilities. In terms of the level of emergency rescue and response task, most respondents answered that the emergency rescue was insufficient. The respondents answered that the effectiveness of emergency rescue training was helpful, but some responses showed that the training was not helpful because of scenario-based training, seeming training, similar training carried out every year, unrealistic training, and lack of competent authorities' interest and perfunctory participations. Most respondents answered for the appropriateness of emergency rescue training and evaluation that they were satisfied, however, they were not satisfied with the evaluation methods irrelevant to the type of training, evaluation methods requiring unnecessary training scale, and evaluation methods leading perfunctory participations of competent authorities. Lastly, respondents mostly answered that training reflecting various damage situations are necessary regarding the demand on the improvement of emergency rescue training. Conclusion: The improvement measures for emergency rescue training are as follows. First, it is necessary to set and prepare various training contents in accordance with regional characteristics by reviewing major disasters occurred in the region. Second, it is necessary to revise the emergency rescue training guidelines and manuals for appropriate training plan for each fire station, provide education and training for working-level staff members, and establish training in a way that types, tactics, and strategies of emergency rescue training could be utilized practically. Third, it is necessary to prepare a scheme that can lead participation and provide incentive or penalty from the planning stage of training in order to increase the participation of supporting and competent authorities when an actual disaster occurs. Fourth, it is necessary to establish support arrangements and cooperative systems by authority through training by fire stations or zones in preparation for disaster situations that may occur simultaneously. Fifth, it is necessary to put emphasis on the training process rather than the result for emergency rescue training and evaluation, pay attention to the identification of supplement points for each disaster situation and make improvements. Especially, type or form of training should be considered rather than evaluating the execution status of detailed processes, and the evaluation measure that can consider the completeness (proficiency) of training and the status of role performance rather than the scale of training should be prepared. Sixth, type and method of training should be improved in accordance with the characteristics of each fire station by identifying the demand of working-level staff members for an efficient emergency rescue training.