• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Citizen Participation in the Process of Establishing the Community Health Plan: Based on the results of roundtable discussions to Resolve the Health Disparity (지역보건의료계획 수립과정에서의 시민참여: 건강 격차 해소방안을 위한 시민원탁회의 결과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Su-Jin;Hong, Nam-Soo;Kim, Keon-Yeop;Ryu, Dong Hee;Bae, Sang Geun;Kim, Ji-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.151-161
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study was to identify citizens' needs and what they perceive the health-related problems are so public opinion can be reflected in the Daegu Community Health Plan. A citizen participation group was organized, and two roundtable discussions were held in June and July 2018. The number of participants in the first and second round was 40 and 44, respectively. Customer itinerary guidance, DVDM (Definition, Value, Difficulty, and Method) Map, and Persona-based scenario method were used for the roundtable discussions. The measures to improve the health status proposed by the citizens included expanding access to health services, establishing health services centered on small-living areas, expanding mental health services, creating health-friendly environments, resolving environmental problems, and improving social health. In addition, enhancing communication and creating harmonized environments, improving access to healthcare, generating pleasant physical environments, and assigning socials roles for vulnerable individuals were brought up as the means to resolve health disparities. The strength of the present study lies in the fact that, unlike survey methods, the citizens' exact needs were identified by sharing their thoughts. Moreover, it was proven that practical measures would be needed to implement citizen participation in planning health-related projects.

LSTM Prediction of Streamflow during Peak Rainfall of Piney River (LSTM을 이용한 Piney River유역의 최대강우시 유량예측)

  • Kareem, Kola Yusuff;Seong, Yeonjeong;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • Streamflow prediction is a very vital disaster mitigation approach for effective flood management and water resources planning. Lately, torrential rainfall caused by climate change has been reported to have increased globally, thereby causing enormous infrastructural loss, properties and lives. This study evaluates the contribution of rainfall to streamflow prediction in normal and peak rainfall scenarios, typical of the recent flood at Piney Resort in Vernon, Hickman County, Tennessee, United States. Daily streamflow, water level, and rainfall data for 20 years (2000-2019) from two USGS gage stations (03602500 upstream and 03599500 downstream) of the Piney River watershed were obtained, preprocesssed and fitted with Long short term memory (LSTM) model. Tensorflow and Keras machine learning frameworks were used with Python to predict streamflow values with a sequence size of 14 days, to determine whether the model could have predicted the flooding event in August 21, 2021. Model skill analysis showed that LSTM model with full data (water level, streamflow and rainfall) performed better than the Naive Model except some rainfall models, indicating that only rainfall is insufficient for streamflow prediction. The final LSTM model recorded optimal NSE and RMSE values of 0.68 and 13.84 m3/s and predicted peak flow with the lowest prediction error of 11.6%, indicating that the final model could have predicted the flood on August 24, 2021 given a peak rainfall scenario. Adequate knowledge of rainfall patterns will guide hydrologists and disaster prevention managers in designing efficient early warning systems and policies aimed at mitigating flood risks.

Big Data Management in Structured Storage Based on Fintech Models for IoMT using Machine Learning Techniques (기계학습법을 이용한 IoMT 핀테크 모델을 기반으로 한 구조화 스토리지에서의 빅데이터 관리 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Sil
    • Advanced Industrial SCIence
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2022
  • To adopt the development in the medical scenario IoT developed towards the advancement with the processing of a large amount of medical data defined as an Internet of Medical Things (IoMT). The vast range of collected medical data is stored in the cloud in the structured manner to process the collected healthcare data. However, it is difficult to handle the huge volume of the healthcare data so it is necessary to develop an appropriate scheme for the healthcare structured data. In this paper, a machine learning mode for processing the structured heath care data collected from the IoMT is suggested. To process the vast range of healthcare data, this paper proposed an MTGPLSTM model for the processing of the medical data. The proposed model integrates the linear regression model for the processing of healthcare information. With the developed model outlier model is implemented based on the FinTech model for the evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 healthcare dataset collected from the IoMT. The proposed MTGPLSTM model comprises of the regression model to predict and evaluate the planning scheme for the prevention of the infection spreading. The developed model performance is evaluated based on the consideration of the different classifiers such as LR, SVR, RFR, LSTM and the proposed MTGPLSTM model and the different size of data as 1GB, 2GB and 3GB is mainly concerned. The comparative analysis expressed that the proposed MTGPLSTM model achieves ~4% reduced MAPE and RMSE value for the worldwide data; in case of china minimal MAPE value of 0.97 is achieved which is ~ 6% minimal than the existing classifier leads.

Lane Change Methodology for Autonomous Vehicles Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (심층강화학습 기반 자율주행차량의 차로변경 방법론)

  • DaYoon Park;SangHoon Bae;Trinh Tuan Hung;Boogi Park;Bokyung Jung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.276-290
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    • 2023
  • Several efforts in Korea are currently underway with the goal of commercializing autonomous vehicles. Hence, various studies are emerging on autonomous vehicles that drive safely and quickly according to operating guidelines. The current study examines the path search of an autonomous vehicle from a microscopic viewpoint and tries to prove the efficiency required by learning the lane change of an autonomous vehicle through Deep Q-Learning. A SUMO was used to achieve this purpose. The scenario was set to start with a random lane at the starting point and make a right turn through a lane change to the third lane at the destination. As a result of the study, the analysis was divided into simulation-based lane change and simulation-based lane change applied with Deep Q-Learning. The average traffic speed was improved by about 40% in the case of simulation with Deep Q-Learning applied, compared to the case without application, and the average waiting time was reduced by about 2 seconds and the average queue length by about 2.3 vehicles.

Analysis of Runoff Reduction Effect of Flood Mitigation Policies based on Cost-Benefit Perspective (비용-편익을 고려한 홍수 대응 정책의 유출 저감 효과 분석)

  • Jee, Hee Won;Kim, Hyeonju;Seo, Seung Beom
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.721-733
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    • 2023
  • As the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase due to climate change, climate change adaptation measures have been proposed by the central and local governments. In order to reduce flood damage in urban areas, various flood response policies, such as low impact development techniques and enhancement of the capacity of rainwater drainage networks, have been proposed. When these policies are established, regional characteristics and policy-effectiveness from the cost-benefit perspective must be considered for the flood mitigation measures. In this study, capacity enhancement of rainwater pipe networks and low impact development techniques including green roof and permeable pavement techniques are selected. And the flood reduction effect of the target watershed, Gwanak campus of Seoul National University, was analyzed using SWMM model which is an urban runoff simulation model. In addition, along with the quantified urban flooding reduction outputs, construction and operation costs for various policy scenarios were calculated so that cost-benefit analyses were conducted to analyze the effectiveness of the applied policy scenarios. As a result of cost-benefit analysis, a policy that adopts both permeable pavement and rainwater pipe expansion was selected as the best cost-effective scenario for flood mitigation. The research methodology, proposed in this study, is expected to be utilized for decision-making in the planning stage for flood mitigation measures for each region.

Estimation of Future Long-Term Riverbed Fluctuations and Aggregate Extraction Volume Using Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of the Nonsan River Basin (기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 장기하상변동 및 골재 채취량 산정: 논산천을 사례로)

  • Dae Eop Lee;Min Seok Kim;Hyun Ju Oh
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to estimate riverbed fluctuations and the volume of aggregate extraction attributable to climate change. Rainfall-runoff modeling, utilizing the SWAT model based on climate change scenarios, as well as long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling, employing the HEC-RAS model, were conducted for the Nonsan River basin. The analysis of rainfall-runoff and sediment transport under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the early part of the future indicates that differences in annual precipitation may exceed 600 mm, resulting in a corresponding variation in the basin's sediment discharge by more than 30,000 tons per year. Additionally, long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling of the lower reaches of the Nonsan Stream has identified a potential aggregate extraction area. It is estimated that aggregate extraction could be feasible within a 2.455 km stretch upstream, approximately 4.6 to 6.9 km from the confluence with the Geum River. These findings suggest that the risk of climate crises, such as extreme rainfall or droughts, could increase due to abnormal weather conditions, and the increase in variability could affect long-term aggregate extraction. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account the impact of climate change in future long-term aggregate extraction planning and policy formulation.

A case Study on the Experiences of College Students Participating in the Career Exploration credit System (퍼포먼스 이론의 관점으로 바라본 대학생들의 찾아가는 교육연극 공연 경험에 관한 사례연구)

  • Shin Min-Ju;Bijou Kwak
    • Journal of the International Relations & Interdisciplinary Education
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2024
  • This study is a qualitative case study on the experience of an on-site, audience-participatory educational play conducted by four college students majoring in theater under the title 'Hooni and Choroki' for 7-year-old kindergarten students about to enter elementary school. The core theme of the play is to help relieve anxiety about school life before entering elementary school and to communicate smoothly with peers. To this end, college students participate in scenario planning, kindergarten recruitment, and 40-minute training at three kindergartens. He even conducted theatrical performances. As a result of the study, the key components of 'another growth in my life', 'improvement of happiness through meeting children', and 'new challenge toward dreams' were derived. The greatest significance of this study is that the audience-participatory educational theater experience allowed college students to practice sharing the results of their learning with someone else, and through this practice of sharing learning, they were able to realize their somewhat vague career paths and dreams. It was an opportunity that allowed me to experience 'improved confidence' and 'a resonance in my heart' so that I could set a direction. We hope that future educational theater with audience participation will be widely implemented in various aspects.

Water Balance Projection Using Climate Change Scenarios in the Korean Peninsula (기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 미래 한반도 물수급 전망)

  • Kim, Cho-Rong;Kim, Young-Oh;Seo, Seung Beom;Choi, Su-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.807-819
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    • 2013
  • This study proposes a new methodology for future water balance projection considering climate change by assigning a weight to each scenario instead of inputting future streamflows based on GCMs into a water balance model directly. K-nearest neighbor algorithm was employed to assign weights and streamflows in non-flood period (October to the following June) was selected as the criterion for assigning weights. GCM-driven precipitation was input to TANK model to simulate future streamflow scenarios and Quantile Mapping was applied to correct bias between GCM hindcast and historical data. Based on these bias-corrected streamflows, different weights were assigned to each streamflow scenarios to calculate water shortage for the projection periods; 2020s (2010~2039), 2050s (2040~2069), and 2080s (2070~2099). As a result by applying the proposed methodology to project water shortage over the Korean Peninsula, average water shortage for 2020s is projected to increase to 10~32% comparing to the basis (1967~2003). In addition, according to getting decreased in streamflows in non-flood period gradually by 2080s, average water shortage for 2080s is projected to increase up to 97% (516.5 million $m^3/yr$) as maximum comparing to the basis. While the existing research on climate change gives radical increase in future water shortage, the results projected by the weighting method shows conservative change. This study has significance in the applicability of water balance projection regarding climate change, keeping the existing framework of national water resources planning and this lessens the confusion for decision-makers in water sectors.

The Study of the Direction of Development of the Korean Feature Length Animation for Movie Theater : in the Case of 〈 Leafle, A Hen into The Wild 〉 (한국 극장용 장편 애니메이션 산업의 발전 방향에 대한 연구: 〈마당을 나온 암탉〉을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yoon-A;Mok, Hae-Jung
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.26
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    • pp.109-130
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest the direction of the development of the feature length animation for movie theater by analyzing of the reasons of the success of . released in 2011 has broken box office records by drawing 2 millions since drew 760 thousands in 1976. This can be one of the success model of the animation for movie theater, considering it has had trouble not only in planning ability and scenario power but also in producing environment where subcontracts are prevalent. This box office hit seems to have been possible through cooperation and division of movie crews and animation crews. Many kinds of materials are reviewed and producer Kim Seonku was interviewed for analysis of the reasons of box office success. Followings are five reasons of success found as the result of analysis and the body of this article is composed of the argument and analysis of each. 1.This animation was planned and produced in the same way of commercial feature films. 2.There was detailed division of work while producing 3. Various kinds of investments were made sequentially, 4. Major film distributor like Lotte and CJ could be motivated 5. There were producers who can mediate between the animation and film field This study suggests the direction both in the aspect of industry and the aspect of training professionals as the result of analysis. In the industrial aspect, transitional cooperation is needed between animation filed and film field which can motivate distributor. Industrial approach like planning, investment, distribution and marketing is absolute for the success of animation for movie theater. Also in the aspect of training professionals, curriculum needs to be improved in the university because the ability and passion of the professionals in the field of animation industry are the most important and education is the most approachable way.

Projection of Potential Cultivation Region of Satsuma Mandarin and 'Shiranuhi' Mandarin Hybrid Based on RCP 8.5 Emission Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에 근거한 온주밀감과 '부지화'의 잠재적 재배지 변화 예측)

  • Moon, Young-Eel;Kang, Seok-Beom;Lee, Hyejin;Choi, Young-Hun;Son, In-Chang;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Ki;An, Moon-Il
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2017
  • The potential change of the cultivation area of main citrus cultivars, satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) and 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid [(Citrus unshiu ${\times}$ C. sinensis) ${\times}$ C. reticulata] were determined with base year (1981 to 2010) to 2090. The meteorological data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the digital agricultural climate map of 30m-solution based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 was used for projection of potential cultivation area. As a result, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin included almost Jeju region during base year. At the 2030s, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin increased and the cultivable region also increased focused on the coast region of Jeonnam province. From the 2060s, the suitable area spread out to mountain area of Jeju, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast region of Kangwon, and the cultivable region expanded to the area of Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk. In the case of 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid, the suitable region included only the partial coast area of Jeju, and cultivable area covered Jeju region and the partial southern coast of Jeonnam during the standard period. At the 2030s, the suitable region of 'Shiranuhi' included the current cultivation area of satsuma mandarin, and the cultivable region moved to northward by the partial southern coast region. At the 2090s, the slightly increased suitable region covered all Jeju regions, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast area of Kangwon, and the cultivable region proceeded northward focusing on the coastline. In conclusion, the prediction of the potential land for citrus cultivation based on the RCP 8.5 showed that the suitable region of satsuma mandarin decreased, whereas that of cultivation of 'Shiranuhi' increased. Moreover, it was forecasted that citrus cultivation area would extend to Kangwon region at the end of the $21^{st}$ century.