• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.106-117
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R²) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R² was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R² was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.473-487
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• 2023

Korea's multi-purpose dams, which were constructed in the 1970s and 1980s, have a single outlet located near the bottom for hydropower generation. Problems such as freezing damage to crops due to cold water discharge and an increase the foggy days have been raised downstream of some dams. In this study, we analyzed the effect of water intake depth on the reservoir's water temperature stratification structure and outflow temperature targeting Hapcheon Reservoir, where hypolimnetic withdrawal is drawn via a fixed depth outlet. Using AEM3D, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model, the vertical water temperature distribution of Hapcheon Reservoir was reproduced and the seasonal water temperature stratification structure was analyzed. Simulation periods were wet and dry year to compare and analyze changes in water temperature stratification according to hydrological conditions. In addition, by applying the intake depth change scenario, the effect of water intake depth on the thermal structure was analyzed. As a result of the simulation, it was analyzed that if the hypolimnetic withdrawal is changed to epilimnetic withdrawal, the formation location of the thermocline will decrease by 6.5 m in the wet year and 6.8 m in the dry year, resulting in a shallower water depth. Additionally, the water stability indices, Schmidt Stability Index (SSI) and Buoyancy frequency (N²), were found to increase, resulting in an increase in thermal stratification strength. Changing higher withdrawal elevations, the annual average discharge water temperature increases by 3.5℃ in the wet year and by 5.0℃ in the dry year, which reduces the influence of the downstream river. However, the volume of the low-water temperature layer and the strength of the water temperature stratification within the lake increase, so the water intake depth is a major factor in dam operation for future water quality management.