• Title/Summary/Keyword: s-shaped growth curve

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A study on the parameter estimation of S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Models Using SAS JMP (SAS JMP를 이용한 S형 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장모델에서의 모수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 문숙경
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.130-140
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    • 1998
  • Studies present a guide to parameter estimation of software reliability models using SAS JMP. In this paper, we consider only software reliability growth model(SRGM), where mean value function has a S-shaped growth curve, such as Yamada et al. model, and ohba inflection model. Besides these stochastic SRGM, deterministic SRGM's, by fitting Logistic and Gompertz growth curve, have been widely used to estimate the error content of software systems. Introductions or guide lines of JMP are concerned. Estimation of parameters of Yamada et al. model and Logistic model is accomplished by using JMP. The differences between Yamada et al. model and Logistic model is accomplished by using JMP. The differences between Yamada et al. model and Logistic model is discussed, along with the variability in the estimates or error sum of squares. This paper have shown that JMP can be an effective tool I these research.

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An Empirical Study of the Relationships between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Openness (개방화와 경제성장에 따른 한국, 중국, 일본의 이산화탄소 배출량 비교 분석)

  • Choi, Eunho;Heshmati, Almas;Cho, Yongsung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.3-37
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    • 2011
  • This paper investigates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide $CO_2$ emissions and its causal relationships with economic growth and openness by using time series data (1971-2006) from China (an emerging market), Korea (a newly industrialized country), and Japan (a developed country). The sample countries span a whole range of development stages from industrialized to newly industrialized and emerging market economies. The environmental consequences according to openness and economic growth do not show uniform results across the countries. Depending on the national characteristics, the estimated EKC show different temporal patterns. China shows an N-shaped curve while Japan has a U-shaped curve. Such dissimilarities are also found in the relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and openness. In the case of Korea, and Japan it represents an inverted U-shaped curve while China shows a U-shaped curve. We also analyze the dynamic relationships between the variables by adopting a vector auto regression or vector error correction model. These models through the impulse response functions allow for analysis of the causal variable's influence on the dynamic response of emission variables, and it adopts a variance decomposition to explain the magnitude of the forecast error variance determined by the shocks to each of the causal variables over time. Results show evidence of large heterogeneity among the countries and variables impacts.

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A Software Cost Estimation Using Growth Curve Model (성장곡선을 이용한 소프트웨어 비용 추정 모델)

  • Park, Seok-Gyu;Lee, Sang-Un;Park, Jae-Heung
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.11D no.3
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    • pp.597-604
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    • 2004
  • Accurate software cost estimation is essential to both developers and customers. Most of the cost estimating models based on the size measure methods, such as LOC and FP, are obtained through size estimation. The accuracy of size estimation directly influences the accuracy of cost estimation. As a result, the overall structure of regression-based cost models applies the power function based on software size. Many growth phenomenon in nature such as the growth in living organism, performance of technology, and learning capability of human show an S-shaped curve. This paper proposes a model which estimates the developing effort by using the growth curve. The presented model assumes that the relation cost and size follows the growth curve. The appropriateness of the growth curve model based on Function Point, Full-Function Point and Use-Case Point, which are the general methods in estimating the software size have been confirmed. The proposed growth curve model shows similar performance with power function model. In conclusion, the growth curve model can be applied in the estimation of the software cost.

Development of Survivor Models Using Technological Growth Models (기술성장곡선을 활용한 생존모형 개발)

  • Oh, Hyun-Seung;Cho, Jin-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.167-177
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    • 2010
  • Recent competitive and technological changes during the past decade have accelerated the need for better capital recovery methods. Competition and technology have together shortened the expected lives of property which could not have been forecasted several years ago. Since the usage of technological growth models has been prevalent in various technological forecasting environments, the various forms of growth models have become numerous. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels in predicting future levels of growth. A set of criteria for choosing an appropriate model for technological growth models was developed. Two major characteristics of an S-shaped curve were elected which differentiate the various models; they are the skewness of the curve and underlying assumptions regarding the variance of error structure of the model.

Decision-making Reliability Estimation Model based on Building Construction Project Participants' Experience

  • Kim, Chang-Won;Kim, Baek-Joong;Yoo, Wisung;Cho, Hunhee;Kang, Kyung-In
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.148-158
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    • 2013
  • Generally, building construction projects have a complex decision-making process because of the participation of various agents. In this situation, a final decision is arrived at by relying on subjective judgments based on the experience of project participants. For this reason, a method of assessing the objectivity of opinions is needed. In previous studies, the multi-criteria decision making method was applied to arrive at a final decision objectively, but this method has a limitation, in that the experience of each decision maker is not considered differently in the decision making process. Therefore, this study proposed a theoretical model using the S-shaped growth curve and regression analysis by building construction project type to quantitatively estimate decision-making reliability according to the experience of individual project participant`s. The developed model could be added to the Multi-criteria decision making method, and secure the objectivity and reliability of project participants' final opinion.

Long Term Forecastig for Durable Goods by Cross Country Analysis Using Growth Curve (성장곡선을 이용한 횡단면 분석에 의한 내구재의 장기유요예측모형)

  • 정규석
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 1985
  • In this paper, the approach getting a total demand by forecasting the new demand and the replacement demand separately and adding them is used for long term forecasting of durable goods. Cross country analysis using the income as an independent variable and S-shaped growth curve as a fitting model is developed as a method of forecasting new demand. To get the replacement demand the methods using the number of ownership and the replacement rate and the methods using the past demand and the distribution of the product life are proposed. And the theoretical explannation for product life cycle's diversity, which is the one of the major considerations in the long term forecasting, is attempted by the combination of the new demand and the replacement demand patterns. This is applicated the long term forecasting of Korean passenger cars.

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A Study on A, pp.ication of Reliability Prediction & Demonstration Methods for Computer Monitor (Computer용 Monitor에 대한 신뢰성 예측.확인 방법의 응용)

  • 박종만;정수일;김재주
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.96-107
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    • 1997
  • The recent stream to reliability prediction is that it is totally inclusive in depth to consider even the operating and environmental condition at the level of finished goods as well as component itselves. In this study, firstly we present the reliability prediction methods by entire failure rate model which failure rate at the system level is added to the failure rate model at the component level. Secondly we build up the improved bases of reliability demonstration through a, pp.ication of Kaplan-Meier, Cumulative hazard, Johnson's methods as non-parametric and Maximum Likelihood Estimator under exponential & Weibull distribution as parametric. And also present the methods of curve fitting to piecewise failure rate under Weibull distribution, PRST (Probability Ratio Sequential Test), curve fitting to S-shaped reliability growth curve, computer programs of each methods. Lastly we show the practical for determination of optimal burn-in time as a method of reliability enhancement, and also verify the practical usefulness of the above study through the a, pp.ication of failure and test data during 1 year.

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Development and Policy of Proper Management Estimation of Domestic Service Industry in Comparison with OECD Countries for Advancement of Korean Service Industry

  • Suh, Geun-Ha;Yoon, Sung-Wook
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Considering that the governments' official statistics on the optimum scale of the domestic service industry will be crucial in future, this study's results will be used as an important benchmark to develop and verify the parameters in the government's official statistics. Research design, data, and methodology - To identify the appropriate scale of Korea's service industry and its adequacy, I have determined them through estimation using a regression method involving panel data analysis on the panel data of 30 OECD countries. Results - The regression coefficient provided indications of being non-linear. This means that a U-shaped curve relationship exists-that is, the level of the economic growth leverage decreases along with the service industry's growth up to the level of 70.9% in terms of the Korean service industry's adequacy; it increases along with the service industry's growth at a level higher than 70.9%. Conclusions - While the current proportion of the size of the service industry among all industries in Korea stands at 50.7%, its proper proportion estimated by a regression analysis was 70.9%.

Does CO2 and Its Possible Determinants are Playing Their Role in the Environmental Degradation in Turkey. Environment Kuznets Curve Does Exist in Turkey.

  • RAHMAN, Zia Ur
    • Journal of Wellbeing Management and Applied Psychology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 2019
  • Over the last few decades, the atmospheric carbon dioxide emission has been amplified to a great extent in Turkey. This amplification may cause global warming, climate change and environmental degradation in Turkey. Consequently, ecological condition and human life may suffer in the near future from these indicated threats. Therefore, an attempt was made to test the relationship among a number of expected factors and carbon dioxide emissions in the case of Turkey. The study covers the time series data over the period of 1970-2017. We employed the modern econometric techniques such as Johansen co-integration, ARDL bound testing approach and the block exogeneity. The results of the Johansen co-integration test show that there is a significant long-run relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and expected factors. The long-run elasticities of the ARDL model show that a 1% increase in the GDP per capita, electric consumption, fiscal development and trade openness will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.14, 0.52, 0.09 and 0.20% respectively. Further, our findings reveal that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth prevails. Therefore, the EKC hypothesis is valid and prevailing in the Turkish economy. The diagnostic test results show that the parameters of the ARDL model are credible, sTable and reliable in the current form. Finally, Block exogeneity analysis displays that all the expected factors are contributing significantly to carbon dioxide emissions in the Turkish economy.

Diversity and Composition of Tree Species in Madhupur National Park, Tangail, Bangladesh

  • Rahman, Md. Rayhanur;Hossain, Mohammed Kamal;Hossain, Md. Akhter
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.159-172
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    • 2019
  • Madhupur National Park (MNP) is one of the last remaining patches of old-growth natural Sal forest left in Bangladesh where the forest is tropical moist deciduous type. A study was revealed to assess the tree species diversity and composition in this area. For determining tree species the study was conducted through extensive random quadrat survey methods with $20m{\times}20m$ sized plots. Results of the study indicated that there were 139 tree species belonging to 100 genera and 40 families. The quadrat survey assessed the basal area, stem density, diversity indices and importance value index of the tree species having ${\geq}5cm$ D.B.H (Diameter at Brest Height). The basal area and stem density of the tree species were $20.689{\pm}1.08m^2/ha$ and $1412.93{\pm}64.27stem\;ha^{-1}$ while, diversity indices, i.e. Shannon-Wiener's diversity, Simpson's evenness, Margalef's species richness and Pielou's dominance indices indicated poor diversity in comparison to that of other PAs (Protected Areas) in South-Eastern region of Bangladesh. The structural composition based on height and D.B.H through reverse-J shaped curve indicated higher regeneration and recruitment but removal of trees of large growth classes. Sal (Shorea robusta) was the most dominant tree species that accounts 75% of the total tree individuals in the natural forest patches. However, some associates of Sal, i.e. Bhutum (Hymenodictyon orixensis), Gadila (Careya arborea), and Kusum (Schleichera oleosa) etc. were seemed to be rare in MNP.