• Title/Summary/Keyword: ruin problem

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A Note on the History of the Gambler's Ruin Problem

  • Song, Seongjoo;Song, Jongwoo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2013
  • This paper deals with the history of one of the well-known and historically important problems in probability, "Gambler's ruin". This problem was first solved by Pascal and Fermat and published by Huygens in 1657. It was studied and extended by many probabilists in early years and thus, it became an important problem in probability history, introducing many new concepts. We would like to introduce the problem in detail to readers and share the ideas on how new problems are developed, relating to old problems.

A Game with N Players

  • Cho, Dae-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.185-193
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    • 1996
  • In this paper we consider the gambler's ruin problem with N players and derive the formula for computing the expected ruin time when the initial fortunes of all N players are the same. And we present an example for the case of N = 5.

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Optimum Stragies for Unfavorable Situation in Red & Black

  • Ahn, Chul H;Sok, Yong-U
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.683-691
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    • 2002
  • In a game called red and black, you can stake any amount s in your possession. Suppose your goal is 1 and your current fortune is f, with 0 < f < 1. You win back your stake and as much more with probability p and lose your stake with probability, q = 1- p. Ahn(2000) considered optimum strategy for this game with the value of p less than $\frac{1}{2}$ where the house has the advantage over the player. The optimum strategy at any f when p < $\frac{1}{2}$ is to play boldly, which is to bet as much as you can. In this paper we perform the simulation study to show that the Bold strategy is optimum.

The Optimum Strategy for Favorable Situation in Discrete Red & Black (이산형 적흑게임에서 유리한 경우의 최적전략)

  • 석영우;안철환
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.70-80
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    • 2004
  • In discrete red and black, you can stake any amount s in your possession, but the value of s takes positive integer value. Suppose your goal is N and your current fortune is f, with 0<f<N. You win back your stake and as much more with probability p and lose your stake with probability, q = 1-p. In this study, we consider optimum strategies for this game with the value of p greater than $\frac{1}{2}$ where the player has the advantage over the house. The optimum strategy at any f when p>$\frac{1}{2}$ is to play timidly, which is to bet 1 all the time. This is called as Timid1 strategy. In this paper, we perform the simulation study to show that the Timid1 strategy is optimum in discrete red and black when p>\frac{1}{2}.

Optimum Strategies When p<1/2 in Discrete Red & Black (이산형 적흑게임에서 p<1/2인 경우의 최적전략)

  • Seok, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.122-129
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    • 2005
  • In discrete red and black, you can stake any amount s in your possession, but the value of s takes positive integer value. Suppose your goal is N and your current fortune is ${\Large\;f},\;with\;O<{\Large\;f}. You win back your stake and as much more with probability p and lose your stake with probability, q=1-p. In this study, we consider optimum strategies for this game with the value of p less than ${\frac{1}{2}}$ where the house has the advantage over the player. It is shown that the optimum strategy at any ${\Large\;f}$ is the DBold strategy which is to play boldly in discrete red and black when $p<{\frac{1}{2}}$. And then, we perform the simulation study to show that this strategy, which is to bet as much as you can, is optimal in discrete case.

A Study and Investigation for the Attitude about Smoking of Boys' and Girls' High School in Seoul (서울시내 남녀고교생의 흡연에 관한 태도 조사연구)

  • Sim Young Ae
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.74-100
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    • 1989
  • Inspite of the lots of studies on the harmfulness of cigarette smoking to the body published by many researchers since 1950, cigarette smoking people are increasing in number especially, cigarette smoking by young and women causes a serious problem. Examining the physiological motives of youth shows that, impulse which the youth want to immitate the adults, alluring curiousity, and defiant physiology of escaping from the norm of traditional groups which has been banned are cooperated well compoundly. As the period of the youth is the one which they accumulate knowledge and charactor by learning as well as the period of growth mentally, and physically they should be rightly educated about smoking before they addicted to smoking and it is desirable for us to make the youth to understand how harmfully the smoking is to effect to their growth and mental soundness simply not as a social norm which they should not smoke. The main motive of this study on the attitude of smoking by the youth is to give basic materials related on this field. For this study, 647 questionnaires were used as studying material which were able to analyze among 720 questionnaires of 2 classes of each grade of 3 high schools among the high schools of boys, girls and co-educated in Seoul from Oct. 21, 1988 through Oct. 26, 1988. Study Instrument are graded in Likert's 5 point from 40 questions which are 20 questions m affirmations and 20 questions in negations after analyzing the factors on 60 simple sentence questions which the students showed in preliminary studies. And these are systemized to be measured from 1 point which means they think smoking IS very bad to 5points which means they think smoking is really good. In these collected materials, technical statistics of frequency. percentage, average, standard deviation are used for general character and smoking attitude, $X^2-test$ for examinning Independant variables of physical. emotional, ethical and other areas pearson's coefficient of correlation for related direction and degree" and step­regression analysis for the degree of relative contribution of all variables which effect smoking attitude. The results of this study are as follows; 1. The smoking attitude of high school boys and girls showed average of 1.78 in physical area, 2.63 in emotional area, 2.61 in ethical area, 2.29 in other area respectively in a negative attitude generally also the negative attitude are expressed most strongly in physical area. I've can also say by this results that smoking is harmful to their health and further more it can be judged that this proves the youth in the period of preparation be adults have a strong curiousity in the emotional, ethical and other areas. 2. The most influential variables in each field as related factors effecting smoking attitude of the student can be explained from 13.2 in physical area the lowest experienced variables to 25.2 in emotional area the highest of degree of smoking experience. The fact that the more the smoking experienced students are increasing in number the higher tendency which accept the' smoking tells as the importance of health education about the population of latest student's smoking as important variables shown equally in each area. Those of grade, age, numbers of smoking people in house are showed meaningful in pure interrelation. Those related to the acceptance of teacher's smoking, sex, mothors education are shown meaningful in opposite interrelations. This means that the' increasing number' of smoking people in grade age, the number of smoker in family have a affirmative attitude. And people who are not interested in teacher's smoking wants to quit it, and whose mother's education is higher have a negative attitude. 3. The most negatively answered questions of the smoking attitude In physical, emotional, ethical and other areas are as belows; Firstly too much smoking is harmful to our health is 1.12 point. Secondly smoking have a ill-effect on pregnancy and embryo is 1.13 point. Thirdly smoking is harmful· to our health is 1.27 point. Fourthly smoking in crowed area with the people such as In a bus or subway should be prohibited is 1.27point. Fifthly smoking can ruin lungs is 1.31 point. And the most affirmatively answered questions are also as below; Firstly we showed smoke depending on time and place is 3.96 points. Secondly smoking is just habit is 3.83 points. Thirdly smoking people seem to be unable and deplorable is 3.69 point. Fourthly smoking should be prohibited by law is 3.56 points. Fifthly high school student's smoking is immitation of adults is 3.52 points.

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Ecological Role of Urban Stream and Its Improvement (도시하천의 생태학적 역할과 개선방안)

  • Son, Myoung-Won
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 1998
  • A stream plays an important role as the source of drinking water, the ecological space and the living space. But the today's urban stream whose ecosystem is destroyed and water quality become worse in consequence of covering, concrete dyke construction, and the adjustment of high-water-ground[dunchi], is deprived of the function as a stream. Therefore this paper aims to elucidate the role that urban stream plays ecologically and to try to find a improvement to the problem. A stream is the pathway through which several types of the solar radiation energy are transmitted and the place which is always full of life energy. In the periphery of a stream, primary productivity is high and carrying capacity of population is great. Thus ancient cities based on agricultural products grew out of the fertile surroundings of stream. In Korea most cities of the Chosen Dynasty Period based on the agriculture have grown out of the erosional basins where solar energy is concentrated. The role of a stream in this agricultural system is the source of energy and material(water and sediment) and a lifeline. In consequence of the growth of cities and the rapid growing demands of water supply after the Industrial Revolution, a stream has become a more important locational factor of city. However, because cities need the life energy of urban streams no longer, urban streams cannot play role as a lifeline. And As pollutant waste water has poured into urban streams after using external streams' water, urban streams have degraded to the status of a ditch. As the results of the progress of urbanization, the dangerousness of inundation of urban stream increased and its water quality became worse. For the sake of holding back it, local governments constructed concrete dyke, adjusted high-water-ground[dunchi], and covered the channel. But stream ecosystem went to ruin and its water quality became much worse after channelization. These problems of urban stream can be solved by transmitting much energy contained in stream to land ecosystem as like rural stream. We should dissipate most of the energy contained in urban stream by cultivating wetland vegetation from the shore of stream to high-water-ground, and should recover a primitive natural vigorous power by preparation of ecological park.

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Validity and Pertinence of Administrative Capital City Proposal (행정수도 건설안의 타당성과 시의성)

  • 김형국
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.312-323
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    • 2003
  • This writer absolutely agrees with the government that regional disequilibrium is severe enough to consider moving the administrative capital. Pursuing this course solely to establish a balanced development, however, is not a convincing enough reason. The capital city is directly related to not only the social and economic situation but, much more importantly, to the domestic political situation as well. In the mid-1970s, the proposal by the Third Republic to move the capital city temporarily was based completely on security reasons. At e time, the then opposition leader Kim, Dae-jung said that establishing a safe distance from the demilitarized zone(DMZ) reflected a typically military decision. His view was that retaining the capital city close to the DMZ would show more consideration for the will of the people to defend their own country. In fact, independent Pakistan moved its capital city from Karachi to Islamabad, situated dose to Kashmir the subject of hot territorial dispute with India. It is regrettable that no consideration has been given to the urgent political situation in the Korean peninsula, which is presently enveloped in a dense nuclear fog. As a person requires health to pursue his/her dream, a country must have security to implement a balanced territorial development. According to current urban theories, the fate of a country depends on its major cities. A negligently guarded capital city runs the risk of becoming hostage and bringing ruin to the whole country. In this vein, North Koreas undoubted main target of attack in the armed communist reunification of Korea is Seoul. For the preservation of our state, therefore, it is only right that Seoul must be shielded to prevent becoming hostage to North Korea. The location of the US Armed Forces to the north of the capital city is based on the judgment that defense of Seoul is of absolute importance. At the same time, regardless of their different standpoints, South and North Korea agree that division of the Korean people into two separate countries is abnormal. Reunification, which so far has defied all predictions, may be realized earlier than anyone expects. The day of reunification seems to be the best day for the relocation of the capital city. Building a proper capital city would take at least twenty years, and a capital city cannot be dragged from one place to another. On the day of a free and democratic reunification, a national agreement will be reached naturally to find a nationally symbolic city as in Brazil or Australia. Even if security does not pose a problem, the governments way of thinking would not greatly contribute to the balanced development of the country. The Chungcheon region, which is earmarked as the new location of the capital city, has been the greatest beneficiary of its proximity to the capital region. Not being a disadvantaged region, locating the capital city there would not help alleviate regional disparity. If it is absolutely necessary to find a candidate region at present, considering security, balanced regional development and post-reunification scenario of the future, Cheolwon area located in the middle of the Korean peninsula may be a plausible choice. Even if the transfer of capital is delayed in consideration of the present political conflict between the South and the North Koreas, there is a definite shortcut to realizing a balanced regional development. It can be found not in the geographical dispersal of the central government, but in the decentralization of power to the provinces. If the government has surplus money to build a new symbolic capital city, it is only right that it should improve, for instance, the quality of drinking water which now everyone eschews, and to help the regional subway authority whose chronic deficit state resoled in a recent disastrous accident. And it is proper to time the transfer of capital city to coincide with that of the reunification of Korea whenever Providence intends.