• Atmosphere
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.149-162
• /
• 2022

This study investigated the prediction skill of the Asian dust seasonal forecasting model (GloSea5-ADAM) on the Asian dust and meteorological variables related to the dust generation for the period of 1991~2016. Additionally, we evaluated the prediction skill of those variables depending on the combination of the initial dates in the sub-seasonal scale for the dust source region affecting South Korea. The Asian dust and meteorological variables (10 m wind speed, 1.5 m relative humidity, and 1.5 m air temperature) from GloSea5-ADAM were compared to that from Synoptic observation and European Centre for medium range weather forecasts reanalysis v5, respectively, based on Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) as evaluation criteria. In general, the Asian dust and meteorological variables in the source region showed high ACC in the prediction scale within one month. For all variables, the use of the initial dates closest to the prediction month led to the best performances based on MBE, RMSE, and ACC, and the performances could be improved by adjusting the number of ensembles considering the combination of the initial date. ACC was as high as 0.4 in Spring when using the closest two initial dates. In particular, the GloSea5-ADAM shows the best performance of Asian dust generation with an ACC of 0.60 in the occurrence frequency of Asian dust in March when using the closest initial dates for initial conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.38 no.10
• /
• pp.17-29
• /
• 2022

Recently, the interest in integrated underground geospatial information mapping (IUGIM) to ensure the safety of underground spaces and facilities has been increasing. Because IUGIM is used in the fields of underground space development and underground safety management, the up-to-dateness and accuracy of information are critical. In this study, IUGIM and field data were classified, and the accuracy of IUGIM was improved by spatial interpolation. A spatial interpolation technique was used to process borehole data in IUGIM, and a quantitative evaluation was performed with mean absolute error and root mean square error through the cross-validation of seven interpolation results according to the technique and model. From the cross-validation results, accuracy decreased in the order of nonuniform rational B-spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting. In the case of Kriging, the accuracy difference according to the variogram model was insignificant, and Kriging using the spherical variogram exhibited the best accuracy.

• Imaging Science in Dentistry
• /
• v.53 no.3
• /
• pp.221-227
• /
• 2023

Purpose: This study was performed to develop a linear regression model using the pulp-to-tooth volume ratio (PTVR) ratio of the maxillary canine, assessed through cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images, to predict chronological age (CA) in Indonesian adults. Materials and Methods: A sample of 99 maxillary canines was collected from patients between 20 and 49.99 years old. These samples were obtained from CBCT scans taken at the Universitas Padjadjaran Dental Hospital in Indonesia between 2018 and 2022. Pulp volume (PV) and tooth volume (TV) were measured using ITK-SNAP, while PTVR was calculated from the PV/TV ratio. Using RStudio, a linear regression was performed to predict CA using PTVR. Additionally, correlation and observer agreement were assessed. Results: The PTVR method demonstrated excellent reproducibility, and a significant correlation was found between the PTVR of the maxillary canine and CA(r= -0.74, P<0.01). The linear regression analysis showed an R² of 0.58, a root mean square error of 5.85, and a mean absolute error of 4.31. Conclusion: Linear regression using the PTVR can be effectively applied to predict CA in Indonesian adults between 20 and 49.99 years of age. As models of this type can be population-specific, recalibration for each population is encouraged. Additionally, future research should explore the use of other teeth, such as molars.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.48 no.4
• /
• pp.891-897
• /
• 2021

There is a need for a technology that can quickly and accurately analyze soil carbon contents. Existing soil carbon analysis methods are cumbersome in terms of professional manpower requirements, time, and cost. It is against this background that the present study leverages the soil physical properties of color and water content levels to develop a model capable of predicting the carbon content of soil sample. To predict the total carbon content of soil, the RGB values, water content of the soil, and lux levels were analyzed and used as statistical data. However, when R, G, and B with high correlations were all included in a multiple regression analysis as independent variables, a high level of multicollinearity was noted and G was thus excluded from the model. The estimates showed that the estimation coefficients for all independent variables were statistically significant at a significance level of 1%. The elastic values of R and B for the soil carbon content, which are of major interest in this study, were -2.90 and 1.47, respectively, showing that a 1% increase in the R value was correlated with a 2.90% decrease in the carbon content, whereas a 1% increase in the B value tallied with a 1.47% increase in the carbon content. Coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) methods were used for regression verification, and calibration samples showed higher accuracy than the validation samples in terms of R² and MAPE.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2021.06a
• /
• pp.326-326
• /
• 2021

장기간에 걸쳐 넓은 지역에 대해 발생하는 가뭄을 예측하기위해 많은 학자들의 기술적, 학술적 시도가 있어왔다. 본 연구에서는 복잡한 시계열을 가진 가뭄을 전망하는 방법 중 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법과 실시간으로 가뭄을 예측하는 비시나리오 기반의 방법 등을 이용하여 미래 가뭄전망을 실시했다. 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법으로는, 3개월 GCM(General Circulation Model) 예측 결과를 바탕으로 2009년도 PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) 가뭄지수를 산정하여 가뭄심도에 대한 단기예측을 실시하였다. 또, 통계학적 방법과 물리적 모델(Physical model)에 기반을 둔 확정론적 수치해석 방법을 이용하여 비시나리오 기반 가뭄을 예측했다. 기존 가뭄을 통계학적 방법으로 예측하기 위해서 시도된 대표적인 방법으로 ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모델의 예측에 대한 한계를 극복하기위해 서포트 벡터 회귀(support vector regression, SVR)와 웨이블릿(wavelet neural network) 신경망을 이용해 SPI를 측정하였다. 최적모델구조는 RMSE(root mean square error), MAE(mean absolute error) 및 R(correlation Coefficient)를 통해 선정하였고, 1-6개월의 선행예보 시간을 갖고 가뭄을 전망하였다. 그리고 SPI를 이용하여, 마코프 연쇄(Markov chain) 및 대수선형모델(log-linear model)을 적용하여 SPI기반 가뭄예측의 정확도를 검증하였으며, 터키의 아나톨리아(Anatolia) 지역을 대상으로 뉴로퍼지모델(Neuro-Fuzzy)을 적용하여 1964-2006년 기간의 월평균 강수량과 SPI를 바탕으로 가뭄을 예측하였다. 가뭄 빈도와 패턴이 불규칙적으로 변하며 지역별 강수량의 양극화가 심화됨에 따라 가뭄예측의 정확도를 높여야 하는 요구가 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 복잡하고 비선형성으로 이루어진 가뭄 패턴을 기상학적 가뭄의 정도를 나타내는 표준강수증발지수(SPEI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)인 월SPEI와 일SPEI를 기계학습모델에 적용하여 예측개선 모형을 개발하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.28 no.7
• /
• pp.11-18
• /
• 2023

In this paper, we evaluate deep learning time series forecasting models. Recent studies show that those models perform better than the traditional prediction model such as ARIMA. Among them, recurrent neural networks to store previous information in the hidden layer are one of the prediction models. In order to solve the gradient vanishing problem in the network, LSTM is used with small memory inside the recurrent neural network along with BI-LSTM in which the hidden layer is added in the reverse direction of the data flow. In this paper, we compared the performance of Informer by comparing with other models (LSTM, BI-LSTM, and Transformer) for real Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data. In order to evaluate the accuracy of each method, mean square root error and mean absolute error between the real value and the predicted value were obtained. Consequently, Informer has improved prediction accuracy compared with other methods.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2022.05a
• /
• pp.141-141
• /
• 2022

Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.66 no.3
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2024

Gaining an accurate 3D stream geometry has become feasible with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), which is crucial for better understanding stream hydrodynamic processes. The objective of this study was to investigate series of filters to remove stream vegetation and propose the best method for generating Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) using UAV-based point clouds. A stream reach approximately 500 m of the Bokha stream in Icheon city was selected as the study area. Point clouds were obtained in August 1st, 2023, using Phantom 4 multispectral and Zenmuse L1 for Structure from Motion (SfM) and Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) respectively. Three vegetation filters, two morphological filters, and six composite filters which combined vegetation and morphological filters were applied in this study. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to assess each filters comparing with the two cross-sections measured by leveling survey. The vegetation filters performed better in SfM, especially for short vegetation areas, while the morphological filters demonstrated superior performance on LiDAR, particularly for taller vegetation areas. Overall, the composite filters combining advantages of two types of filters performed better than single filter application. The best method was the combination of Progressive TIN (PTIN) and Color Indicies of Vegetation Extraction (CIVE) for SfM, showing the smallest MAE of 0.169 m. The proposed method in this study can be utilized for constructing DTMs of stream and thus contribute to improving the accuracy of stream hydrodynamic simulations.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.52 no.3
• /
• pp.429-457
• /
• 2024

Purpose: This study aims to provide useful information to real estate investors by developing a profit determination model using artificial intelligence. The model analyzes the real estate markets of six selected cities from multiple perspectives, incorporating characteristics of the real estate market, economic indicators, and policies to determine potential profits. Methods: Data on real estate markets, economic indicators, and policies for five cities were collected and cleaned. The data was then normalized and split into training and testing sets. An AI model was developed using machine learning algorithms and trained with this data. The model was applied to the six cities, and its accuracy was evaluated using metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and R-squared by comparing predicted profits to actual outcomes. Results: The profit determination model was successfully applied to the real estate markets of six cities, showing high accuracy and predictability in profit forecasts. The study provided valuable insights for real estate investors, demonstrating the model's utility for informed investment decisions. Conclusion: The study identified areas for future improvement, suggesting the integration of diverse data sources and advanced machine learning techniques to enhance predictive capabilities.

• Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.141-150
• /
• 2014

Objectives The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of attachment security, social support and health-related burden in the prediction of psychological distress and the mediation effects of social support and health-related burden in relationship between attachment security and psychological distress. Methods Finally, 161 patients were included for the analysis. Chi-square test and independent samples t-test were used for comparing differences between depressive/anxious group and non-depressive/non-anxious group. For evaluating the relationship among attachment security, social support, psychological distress and health-related burden, structural equation modeling analysis were performed. Results 40.7% and 32.0% of the patients have significant depressive symptoms and anxiety symptoms, respectively. In the analysis for testing the differences between groups who have psychological distress and who have not, there were no significant differences of sociodemographic factors and medical characteristics between groups, except for association between depressive symptoms and type of surgery (p = 0.01). Contrary to sociodemographic and medical characteristics, there were significant differences of health-related burden and two coping resources (attachment security and social support) between groups (all p < 0.01), except for the support from medical team in between anxious group and non-anxious group (p = 0.20). In the structural equation model analysis (Model fit : chi-square/df ratio = 0.8, root mean square error of approximation = 0.000, comparative fit index = 1.000, non-normed fit index =0.991), attachment security and social support emerged as an important predictor of psychopathology. Conclusions Attachment security and social support are important factors affecting the psychological distress. We suggest that individual attachment style and the social support state must be considered to approach the newly diagnosed breast cancer patients with psychological distress.