• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk rating process

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Developing Medium-size Corporate Credit Rating Systems by the Integration of Financial Model and Non-financial Model (재무모형과 비재무모형을 통합한 중기업 신용평가시스템의 개발)

  • Park, Cheol-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.71-83
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    • 2008
  • Most researches on the corporate credit rating are generally classified into the area of bankruptcy prediction and bond rating. The studies on bankruptcy prediction have focused on improving the performance in binary classification problem, since the criterion variable is categorical, bankrupt or non-bankrupt. The other studies on bond rating have predicted the credit ratings, which was already evaluated by bond rating experts. The financial institute, however, should perform effective loan evaluation and risk management by employing the corporate credit rating model, which is able to determine the credit of corporations. Therefore, in this study we present a medium sized corporate credit rating system by using Artificial Neural Network(ANN) and Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). Also, we developed AHP model for credit rating using non-financial information. For the purpose of completed credit rating model, we integrated the ANN and AHP model using both financial information and non-financial information. Finally, the credit ratings of each firm are assigned by the proposed method.

PROGRAMMATIC AND PROJECT-LEVEL RISKS: ESTABLISHING A RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS FOR MIDDLE EAST PLANT PROJECTS

  • G. Edward Gibson Jr.;John Walewski;SangBum Kim;Clayton Ingam;Hamid Hajian
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1000-1014
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    • 2009
  • Research sponsored by the Korean Government investigated the establishment of a risk management process by Korean contractors involved with plant projects in the Middle East. This research effort builds upon the work completed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII), called the International Project Risk Assessment (IPRA) tool and method, and also explored how CII's Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) could be incorporated to improve project planning by addressing risks and scope development issues. Specific findings and recommendations were developed including the creation of the Contractor Critical Areas of Concern (CCAC) risk screening tool for Korean contractors pursuing Middle East oil and gas projects.

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Prediction of Dynamic Line Rating Based on Thermal Risk Probability by Time Series Weather Models (시계열 기상모델을 이용한 열적 위험확률 기반 동적 송전용량의 예측)

  • Kim, Dong-Min;Bae, In-Su;Cho, Jong-Man;Chang, Kyung;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.273-280
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    • 2006
  • This paper suggests the method that forecasts Dynamic Line Rating (DLR). Thermal Overload Risk Probability (TORP) of the next time is forecasted based on the present weather conditions and DLR value by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). To model weather elements of transmission line for MCS process, this paper will propose the use of statistical weather models that time series is applied. Also, through the case study, it is confirmed that the forecasted TORP can be utilized as a criterion that decides DLR of next time. In short, proposed method may be used usefully to keep security and reliability of transmission line by forecasting transmission capacity of the next time.

Developing Corporate Credit Rating Models Using Business Failure Probability Map and Analytic Hierarchy Process (부도확률맵과 AHP를 이용한 기업 신용등급 산출모형의 개발)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Shin, Taek-Soo
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2007
  • Most researches on the corporate credit rating are generally classified into the area of bankruptcy prediction and bond rating. The studies on bankruptcy prediction have focused on improving the performance in binary classification problem, since the criterion variable is categorical, bankrupt or non-bankrupt. The other studies on bond rating have predicted the credit ratings, which was already evaluated by bond rating experts. The financial institute, however, should perform effective loan evaluation and risk management by employing the corporate credit rating model, which is able to determine the credit of corporations. Therefore, this study presents a corporate credit rating method using business failure probability map(BFPM) and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). The BFPM enables us to rate the credit of corporations according to business failure probability and data distribution or frequency on each credit rating level. Also, we developed AHP model for credit rating using non-financial information. For the purpose of completed credit rating model, we integrated the BFPM and the AHP model using both financial and non-financial information. Finally, the credit ratings of each firm are assigned by our proposed method. This method will be helpful for the loan evaluators of financial institutes to decide more objective and effective credit ratings.

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Construction of an Exposure Matrix Using a Risk Assessment of Industries and Processes Involving Dichloromethane (작업환경측정 자료를 활용한 Dichloromethane 노출 매트릭스 구축에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Hwan;Park, Dong-Uk;Hong, Sung-Chul;Ha, Kwon-Chul
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.391-401
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    • 2010
  • A reduction in risk of occupational exposure to chemical hazards within the workplace has been the focus of attention both through industry initiatives and legislation. The aims of this study were to develop an exposure matrix by industry and process, and to apply this matrix to control the risk of occupational exposure to Dichloromethane (DCM). The exposure matrix is a tool to convert information on industry and process into information on occupational risk. The exposure matrix comprised industries and processes involving DCM, based on an exposure database provided by KOSHA (the Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency), which was gathered from a workplace hazards evaluation program in Korea. The risk assessment of the exposure matrix was performed using Hallmark risk assessment tool. The results of the risk assessment were indicated by a Danger Value (DV) calculated from the combination of hazard rating (HR), duration of use rating (DUR), and risk probability rating (RPR) of exposure to the chemical, and were divided into four control bands which were related to control measures. The applicability of the risk assessment of the exposure matrix was evaluated by a field study, and survey of the employees of the exposure matrix groups. Among 45 industries examined, this study found that greater attention should be paid to two industries: the manufacture of other optical instruments and photographic equipment, and the manufacture of printing ink, and to one process among 47 examined, the packing process in the manufacture of printing ink, because these were regarded as carrying the highest risk. This tool of a risk assessment for the exposure matrix can be applied as a general exposure information system for hazard control, risk quantification, setting the occupational exposure limit, and hazard surveillance. The exposure matrix includes workforce data, and it provides information on the numbers of exposed workers in Korea by agent, occupation, and level of exposure and risk.

Risk Rating Process of Cyber Security Threats in NPP I&C (원전 계측제어시스템 사이버보안 위험도 산정 프로세스)

  • Lee, Woomyo;Chung, Manhyun;Min, Byung-Gil;Seo, Jungtaek
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.639-648
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    • 2015
  • SInce 2000, Instrumentation and Control(I&C) systems of Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) based on analog technology began to be applied to the digital technology. NPPs under construction in the country with domestic APR1400 I&C system, most devices were digitalized. Cyber security of NPP I&C systems has emerged as an important issue because digital devices compared to the existing analog equipment are vulnerable to cyber attacks. In this paper, We proposed the risk rating process of cyber security threats in NPP I&C system and applied the proposed process to the Reactor Protection System(RPS) developed through Korea Nuclear Instrumentation & Control System(KINCS) project for evaluating the risk of cyber security threats.

Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessments for Industrial Processes Using FMEA and Bow-Tie Methodologies

  • Afefy, Islam H.
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.379-391
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    • 2015
  • Several risk assessment techniques have been presented and investigated in previous research, focusing mainly on the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). FMEA can be employed to determine where failures can occur within industrial systems and to assess the impact of such failures. This research proposes a novel methodology for hazard analysis and risk assessments that integrates FMEA with the bow-tie model. The proposed method has been applied and evaluated in a real industrial process, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. Specifically, the bowtie diagram of the critical equipment in the adopted plant in the case study was built. Safety critical barriers are identified and each of these is assigned to industrial process with an individual responsible. The detection rating to the failure mode and the values of risk priority number (RPN) are calculated. The analysis shows the high values of RPN are 500 and 490 in this process. A global corrective actions are suggested to improve the RPN measure. Further managerial insights have been provided.

A Study on Utilization Ratio and Operation of Transmission Lines (송전선로의 이용률 평가 및 합리적 운영에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Min;Bae, In-Su;Cho, Jong-Man;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.426-432
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    • 2006
  • This paper describes the concepts of Static Line Rating (SLR) and Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) and the computational methods to demonstrate them. Calculation of the line capacity needs the heat balance equation which is also used for computing the reduced tension in terms of line aging. SLR is calculated with the data from the worst condition of weather throughout the year. Even now, the utilization ratio is obtained from this SLR data in Korea. DLR is the improved method compared to SLR. A process for DLR reveals not only improved line ratings but also more accurate allowed line ratings based on line aging and real time conditions of weather. In order to reflect overhead transmission line aging in DLR, this paper proposes the method that considers the amount of decreased tension since the lines have been installed. Therefore, the continuous allowed temperature for remaining life time is newly acquired. In order to forecast DLR, this paper uses weather forecast models, and applies the concept of Thermal Overload Risk Probability (TORP). Then, the new concept of Dynamic Utilization Ratio (DUR) is defined, replacing Static Utilization Ratio (SUR). For the case study, the two main transmission lines which are responsible for the north bound power flow in the Seoul metropolitan area are chosen for computing line rating and utilization ratio. And then line rating and utilization ratio are analyzed for each transmission line, so that comparison of the present and estimated utilization ratios becomes available. Finally, this paper proves the validity of predictive DUR as the objective index, with simulations of emergency state caused by system outages, overload and so on.

Development on Fuzzy-AHP Ranking Risk Assessment Model for the monitoring systems (관제시스템 구축을 위한 Fuzzy-AHP 위험 순위 평가 모델 개발)

  • Chung, Sung-Hak;Park, Tae-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to develop an evaluation model for the National highway risky areas. Thus, for the purposes of doing this, National highway risky area evaluated targeting to provide determination ranking and suggesting rival-superiority factors as well as under-inferiority factors in ten National highway risky areas. This study developed for modules of risky areas evaluation, using fuzzy set theory and analytic hierarchy process for evaluation model of National highway risky area in transport environment. The preceding studies assess risk analysis through analysis of causal relationships by National highway safety sector not only handles rating scale development suitable for assessment area by referring to accident frequency model but also geometric structures model. As result of this study, this model of Fuzzy Ahp Risk Analysis (FARA) apply for programmable design in real time processing through easily derive strategy for improvement activities to provide a decision-making effectively. Furthermore, this study contributes frame for improvements of National highway construction for renovation's priority strategy as well as future's policy schemes.

Diagnosis and Evaluation for the Early Detection of Delirium (섬망의 조기 발견을 위한 진단 및 평가 방법)

  • Chon, Young-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Yeol
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2011
  • Delirium is a common psychiatric disorder and occurs in many hospitalized older patients and has serious consequences including increased mortality rate. Despite its importance, health care clinicians often fail to recognize delirium or misdiagnosed as other psychiatric illness. Awareness of the etiologies and risk factors of delirium should enable clinicians to focus on patients at risk and to recognize delirium symptoms early. To improve early recognition of delirium, emphasis should be given to terminology, psychopathology and knowledge regarding clinical rating scale for delirium in the specific medical and surgical clinical settings. In this study, authors introduce rating scales for delirium and knowledge of clinical diagnostic process for delirium and give rise to appropriate assessment of delirium in the clinical situation.

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