• 제목/요약/키워드: risk ranking method

검색결과 64건 처리시간 0.026초

PROMETHEE와 Entropy 기법을 이용한 돌발홍수 위험도 평가 (Flash Flood Risk Assessment using PROMETHEE and Entropy Method)

  • 이정호;전환돈;박무종;정재학
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.151-156
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    • 2011
  • 과거 홍수 방재에 관한 노력의 대부분은 대하천을 중심으로 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 경제의 발전과 더불어 레져 활동 영역이 산지유역으로 확대되면서 돌발홍수로 인한 인명사고의 발생이 빈번해졌고 이로인한 추가적인 방재 활동이 요구되고 있다. 그러므로 돌발홍수로 인한 인명 및 재산의 피해를 감소시키기 위하여 본 연구에서는 다양한 지표들을 고려하여 산지유역에서의 돌발홍수 발생 위험도를 평가하기 위한 새로운 기법을 개발하였다. 고려된 다양한 지표들의 돌발홍수 발생에 대한 기여도를 평가하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 다기준의사결정 기법의 하나인 프로메티(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations, PROMETHEE)를 이용하였으며, 평가 지표들로는 지역특성, 강우특성 및 지형특성 등이 선정되었다. 또한 이상의 평가지표들에 대한 상대적 가중치 산정을 위하여 엔트로피(Entropy) 기법이 이용되었다. 엔트로피 기법과 프로메티를 이용한 돌발홍수 위험도 평가기법은 그 적용성을 검증하기 위하여 봉화군 유역에 적용되었으며, 적용 결과 봉화군 유역 내 17개 소유역에 대하여 그 상대적 위험도가 평가되었다. 또한 17개 소유역은 그 결과에 따라 각각 5개, 7개, 5개의 고 중 저위험군으로 분류되었다. 또한 적용결과의 추가적인 검증을 위하여 과거 돌발홍수 피해 사례를 조사한 결과 고위험군으로 평가된 지역들 중 한 곳에서 2008년 돌발홍수가 발생했었음을 확인하였다.

해상테러 위험요소의 구조와 우선순위 분석 (An Analysis on Structure of Risk Factor for Maritime Terrorism using FSM and AHP)

  • 장운재;금종수
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.343-348
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    • 2004
  • 신세계는 테러리스트에 의한 세계무역센터의 공격으로 인해 테러로부터의 안전과 보호를 강화하기 위해 초점이 맞추어져 있다. 본 연구는 해상테러 위험요소의 구조와 우선순위를 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 먼저 테러의 유형과 사례를 토대로 브레인스토밍법을 이용하여 해상테러 위험요소를 추출하였고, 퍼지구조모델법을 이용하여 위험요소를 그래프로 구조화 하였으며, 계층분석법을 이용하여 위험요소간의 우선순위를 분석하였다. 그 결과 외부영향이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다.

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해상테러 위험요소의 구조와 우선순위 분석 (An Analysis on Structure of Risk Factor for Maritime Terror using FSM and AHP)

  • 장운재;양원재;금종수
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제29권6호
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    • pp.487-493
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    • 2005
  • 전 세계는 테러리스트에 의한 세계무역센터의 공격으로 인해 테러로부터의 안전과 보호를 강화하기 위해 초점이 맞추어져 있다. 본 연구는 해상테러 위험요소의 구조와 우선순위를 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 먼저 테러의 유형과 사례를 토대로 브레인스토밍법을 이용하여 해상테러 위험요소를 추출하였고, 퍼지구조모델법을 이용하여 위험요소를 그래프로 구조화 하였으며, 계층분석법을 이용하여 위험요소간의 우선순위를 분석하였다. 그 결과 외부영향이 가장 큰 위험요소인 것으로 나타났다.

건설관리에서의 PROMETHEE기반 공정 리스크 분석 (Analysis of the Schedule Risk using PROMETHEE in Building Construction Management)

  • 이장영;윤유상;장명훈;서상욱
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2010
  • 최근 건설 프로젝트는 규모의 대형화, 공정의 복잡함 등에 의한 리스크 인자의 발생이 증가하고 있다. 이로 인해 건설관리에서 리스크 관리의 중요성은 더욱 부각되고 있는 현실이다. 리스크 관리는 확인, 분석, 대응의 과정을 통해서 이루어지며, 분석과정에서 위험인자들의 중요도 및 우선순위를 객관적이고 정확하게 분석해내는 것이 리스크 관리의 성공여부를 좌우한다. 본 연구는 기존연구에서 건설 프로젝트의 공정 리스크 중요도 및 우선순위를 산출하는데 사용된 AHP 기법의 문제점을 보완하기 위하여 PROMETHEE를 활용한 정량적 분석 프로세스를 제시하였다. PROMETHEE를 사용함으로써 AHP 기법에서 분석대상 인자가 9개를 초과 할 때의 신뢰성 저하와 인자의 추가 또는 삭제 시 발생하는 복잡한 산출절차의 문제점을 보완할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Importance Analysis of In-Service Testing Components for Ulchin Unit 3 Using Risk-Informed In-Service Testing Approach

  • Kang, Dae-il;Kim, Kil-yoo;Ha, Jae-joo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2002
  • We performed an importance analysis of In-Service Testing (157) components for Ulchin Unit 3 using the integrated evaluation method for categorizing component safety significance developed in this study. The developed method is basically aimed at having a PSA expert perform an importance analysis using PSA and its related information. The importance analysis using the developed method is initiated by ranking the component importance using quantitative PSA information. The importance analysis of the IST components not modeled in the PSA is performed through the engineering judgment, based on the expertise of PSA, and the quantitative and qualitative information for the 157 components. The PSA scope for importance analysis includes not only Level 1 and 2 internal PSA but also Level 1 external and shutdown/low power operation PSA. The importance analysis results of valves show that 167 (26.55%) of the 629 IST valves are HSSCs and 462 (73.45%) are LSSCs. Those of pumps also show that 28 (70%)of the 40157 pumps are HSSCs and 12 (30%) are LSSCs.

자동차 조립라인에서 총 가외작업을 최소로 하는 투입순서 결정 (Sequencing to Minimize the Total Utility Work in Car Assembly Lines)

  • 현철주
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.69-82
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    • 2003
  • The sequence which minimizes overall utility work in car assembly lines reduces the cycle time, the number of utility workers, and the risk of conveyor stopping. This study suggests mathematical formulation of the sequencing problem to minimize overall utility work, and present a genetic algorithm which can provide a near optimal solution in real time. To apply a genetic algorithm to the sequencing problem in car assembly lines, the representation, selection methods, and genetic parameters are studied. Experiments are carried out to compare selection methods such as roullette wheel selection, tournament selection and ranking selection. Experimental results show that ranking selection method outperforms the others in solution quality, whereas tournament selection provides the best performance in computation time.

역사적 건축물 화재위험성 평가를 위한 화재안전속성의 중요도분석 연구 - 낙산사를 중심으로 - (A Study on the Weighting of Fire Safety Attributes for Fire Risk Assessment in Historic Buildings - Focused on NakSansa-)

  • 이지희
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2012
  • Fire is one of the greatest threats to historical buildings not only to the building's occupants but also to the building's structure and contents. The purpose of this research is to evaluate fire risk in historical buildings in Korea through a series of survey and review. In this research, a multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to determine a weighted index to identify factors and quantify fire risk. Fire risk ranking systems of historical building has been developed in some applications, for example, BOCA, WISCONSIN, FSES and HFRI. According to the such derived fire risk indexing, the Human Activity index showed the highest risk, followed by Historic Buildings, Fire Safety Systems, and then Natural Environmental Causes. Comparison of these factors indicates that the derived risk values differ from case to case. It is proposed that a performance-based design approach should consider the building & occupant characteristics, locations and historical significance, resulting in a more accurate and effective evaluation of fire risk.

가상기업의 성과요인에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Influence Factors for Virtual Enterprise)

  • 박경혜;최세연
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.117-135
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    • 2007
  • Globalization changes in market structures and consumer needs, as well as technology innovations force organizations to adopt new structures and collaborative networks to cope with rapidly changing environments. These Collaborative Networks are based on the Idea of virtual enterprise. A virtual enterprise(VE) is a temporary alliance of globally distributed independent enterprises that share core competencies and computer networks. This paper presents a proposal for a methodology to measure a key factor of success and risk First of all, we chose thirty experts' defines on virtual enterprise, fifteen are academic specialist and other fifteen are from industry. For this study we define twenty two factors determining VE's success and seventeen factors determining VE's risk using by Delphi method. And we built the influence model on virtual enterprise. A research model was established according to preceeding research and consensus on experts then the revised model of key factors on virtual enterprise. This survey was based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP is an approach to decision making that involves structuring multiple choice criteria into a hierarchy, the assessing the relative important of these criteria, comparing alternative for each criteria, and determining an overall ranking of the alternatives. A model was constructed as 3 level hierarchy. The hierarches are organizational, strategic, technical criteria. for success model on VE has 22 factors and 17 factors for risk model. They are selected by all 30 experts. 14 copies among 30 copies distributed to carry out on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Consistency ratio confirm high validity and reliability of instrument and support theoretical model. The results of this study are summarized as follows. (1) This study presented success on VE influenced strategic criteria, and essential factor is Creating a value. Risk on VE influenced strategic criteria, and essential factor is Outcome/Distribution. (2) Its enable that ranking the criteria influence on VE. These are supported VE management and using guideline of VE.

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Expression of DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA in Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors and Correlations with Clinicopathology

  • Sun, Xiu-Wei;Feng, Zhan-Jun;Huang, Peng;Hao, Wang;Sui, Xing-Ling
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.1389-1393
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    • 2012
  • Objective: To discuss the significance of DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA in the diagnosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), and analyze their correlations with clinicopathological features and risk ranking. Method: DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA were detected with IHC Envision ldpe-g-nvp in 63 GISTs and 43 cases of non-GISTs, and analyzed for relations with clinicopathological factors (gender, age, location, tumor size, mitotic phase, histology) and risk degree. Results: The positive expression rate of DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA in GISTs was 84.1% (53/63), 90.5% (57/63), 53.2% (33/63), respectively. Among the 6 CD117 negative cases, all were DOG1 positive and 5 were PDGFRA positive. Rates in patients with non-GISTs was 11.6%, 16.3%, 6.98%, respectively. Expression of DOG1 and PDGFRA demonstrated no significant variation with gender, age, position, tumor size, mitotic phase, histology, and risk rank. However, CD117 was related with position and histology (P=0.008 and P=0.045), those in the mesentery having a higher positive rate than those derived from stomach, small intestine, colon and rectum (50.0% vs 94.7%, P=0.008). Furthermore CD117 was also highly expressed in spindle and epithele types. Conclusions: DOG1 had a good sensitivity and specificity as a kind of newly discovered marker, especially for KIT negative GISTs. However, DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA cannot be used for assessing the rish of patients.

Seismic induced damageability evaluation of steel buildings: a Fuzzy-TOPSIS method

  • Shahriar, Anjuman;Modirzadeh, Mehdi;Sadiq, Rehan;Tesfamariam, Solomon
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제3권5호
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    • pp.695-717
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    • 2012
  • Seismic resiliency of new buildings has improved over the years due to better seismic codes and design practices. However, there is still large number of vulnerable and seismically deficient buildings. It is not economically feasible to retrofit and upgrade all vulnerable buildings, thus there is a need for rapid screening tool. Many factors contribute to the damageability of buildings; this makes seismic evaluation a complex multi-criteria decision making problem. Many of these factors are noncommensurable and involve subjectivity in evaluation that highlights the use of fuzzy-based method. In this paper, a risk-based framework earlier proposed by Tesfamariam and Saatcioglu (2008a) is extended using Fuzzy-TOPSIS method and applied to develop an evaluation and ranking scheme for steel buildings. The ranking is based on damageability that can help decision makers interpret the results and take appropriate decision actions. Finally, the application of conceptual model is demonstrated through a case study of 1994 Northridge earthquake data on seismic damage of steel buildings.