• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk quantification model

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FIRE PROPAGATION EQUATION FOR THE EXPLICIT IDENTIFICATION OF FIRE SCENARIOS IN A FIRE PSA

  • Lim, Ho-Gon;Han, Sang-Hoon;Moon, Joo-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.271-278
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    • 2011
  • When performing fire PSA in a nuclear power plant, an event mapping method, using an internal event PSA model, is widely used to reduce the resources used by fire PSA model development. Feasible initiating events and component failure events due to fire are identified to transform the fault tree (FT) for an internal event PSA into one for a fire PSA using the event mapping method. A surrogate event or damage term method is used to condition the FT of the internal PSA. The surrogate event or the damage term plays the role of flagging whether the system/component in a fire compartment is damaged or not, depending on the fire being initiated from a specified compartment. These methods usually require explicit states of all compartments to be modeled in a fire area. Fire event scenarios, when using explicit identification, such as surrogate or damage terms, have two problems: (1) there is no consideration of multiple fire propagation beyond a single propagation to an adjacent compartment, and (2) there is no consideration of simultaneous fire propagations in which an initiating fire event is propagated to multiple paths simultaneously. The present paper suggests a fire propagation equation to identify all possible fire event scenarios for an explicitly treated fire event scenario in the fire PSA. Also, a method for separating fire events was developed to make all fire events a set of mutually exclusive events, which can facilitate arithmetic summation in fire risk quantification. A simple example is given to confirm the applicability of the present method for a $2{\times}3$ rectangular fire area. Also, a feasible asymptotic approach is discussed to reduce the computational burden for fire risk quantification.

국내 원자력발전소의 화재사건 확률론적안전성평가에서 다중오동작 분석 연구 (A Study on the Multiple Spurious Operation Analysis in Fire Events Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Domestic Nuclear Power Plant)

  • 강대일;정용훈;최선영;황미정
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted a pilot study on the multiple spurious operations (MSO) analysis in the fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) to identify the degree of influence of the operator actions used in the MSO mitigation strategies. The MSO scenario of the domestic reference NPP selected for this study is refueling water tank (RWT) drain down event. It could be caused by spurious operations of the containment spray system (CSS) of the reference NPP. The RWT drain down event can be stopped by the main control room (MCR) operator actions for stopping the operation of CSS pump or closing the CSS motor operated valve if the containment spray actuation signal (CSAS) is spuriously actuated. Outside the MCR, it can be stopped by operator actions for closing the CSS manual valves or motor operated valve or stopping the operation of CSS pump. The quantification result of a fire PSA model that takes into account all recovery actions for the RWT drain down event lead to risk reduction by about 95%, compared with quantification result of fire PSA model without considering them. Among the various operator actions, the recovery action for the spurious CSAS operations and the operator action for the manual valve are identified as the most important operator actions. This study quantitatively showed the extent to which the operator actions used as MSO countermeasures have affected the fire PSA quantification results. In addition, we can see the rank of importance among the operator recovery actions in quantitative terms.

확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구 (A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept)

  • 유영진;손기영;김태희;김지명
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2017
  • 최근 건설프로젝트가 대형화 복잡화되어 감에 따라, 건설공사에서의 리스크 및 불확실성이 급증하고 있다. 증가하고 있는 건설 공사의 위험을 정량적으로 평가하고 관리 할 수 있는 모델 개발을 위해서는 위험 인자를 식별하고 위험인자의 발생 빈도와 심도를 계량화하는 연구가 우선되어야 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 건설현장에서 발생한 사고 데이터를 기반으로 하여 위험요인의 확률분포 및 리스크 레벨별 위험의 발생 확률과 위험의 발생 빈도를 몬테카를로 기법을 통해 시뮬레이션하였다. 시뮬레이션을 통해 사고 원인의 확률 분포 및 사고 원인별 위험도를 분석하여 계량적 분석 결과를 도출하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 정량적 위험관리모델 및 위험관리 연구를 위한 기초 자료가 될 것이다.

Quantification of Microstructures in Mice Alveolar Bone using Micro-computed tomography (${\mu}CT$)

  • Park, Hae-Ryoung;Kim, Hyun-Jin;Park, Byung-Ju
    • International Journal of Oral Biology
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2013
  • Periodontal inflammation increases the risk of tooth loss, particularly in cases where there is an associated loss of alveolar bone and periodontal ligament (PDL). Histological and morphometric evaluation of periodontal inflammation is difficult. Especially, the lengths of the periodontal ligament and interdental alveolar bone space have not been quantified. A quantitative imaging procedure applicable to an animal model would be an important clinical study. The purpose of this study was to quantify the loss of alveolar bone and periodontal ligament by evaluation with micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Another purpose was to investigate differences in infections with systemic E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on E. coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in loss of alveolar bone and periodontal ligament model on mice. This study showed that linear measurements of alveolar bone loss were represented with an increasing trend of the periodontal ligament length and interdental alveolar process space. The effects of systemic E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on an E. coli LPS-induced periodontitis mice model were investigated in this research. Loss of periodontal ligament and alveolar bone were evaluated by micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) and calculated by the two- and three dimensional microstructure morphometric parameters. Also, there was a significantly increasing trend of the interdental alveolar process space in E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on E. coli LPS compared to PBS. And E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on E. coli LPS had a slightly increasing trend of the periodontal ligament length. The increasing trend of TNF-${\alpha}$ on the LPS-induced mice model in this experiment supports the previous studies on the contribution of periodontal diseases in the pathogenesis of systemic diseases. Also, our findings offer a unique model for the study of the role of LPS-induced TNF-${\alpha}$ in systemic and chronic local inflammatory processes and inflammatory diseases. In this study, we performed rapidly quantification of the periodontal inflammatory processes and periodontal bone loss using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) in mice.

RFM 모형을 활용한 지역별 재해 위험도 분석 방법론 제안 (Proposal Methodology for Disaster Risk Analysis by Region Using RFM Model)

  • 김태진;김성수;전다희;박상현
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2020
  • 연구목적: 본 연구는 재해위험지역을 개선하는 재해예방사업을 실시하는 과정에서 예방사업의 우선순위를 선정하기 위한 분석 방법론 제안을 목적으로 한다. 연구방법:최근성(Recency), 빈도성(Frequency), 화폐성(Monetary)을 기준으로 데이터의 등급을 나누고 타겟 마케팅을 수행할 수 있는 RFM 모형을 활용하여 데이터 분석을 수행하였다. 연구결과: RFM 값이 높은 상위 10% 지역이 동해와 남해 연안을 중심으로 나타났으며, 피해 유형을 살펴보면 사유시설의 피해 건수가 크게 나타났다. 결론: 본 연구에서는 RFM 모형을 활용하여 재해위험의 우선순위를 선정하고 GIS를 활용한 지역재해위험도를 구현하였다. 이러한 결과는 재해예방사업의 우선 사업대상지를 선정할 수 있는 기초자료와 재해예방사업의 의사결정 과정에서 기초자료로 활용되기를 기대한다.

ShareSafe: An Improved Version of SecGraph

  • Tang, Kaiyu;Han, Meng;Gu, Qinchen;Zhou, Anni;Beyah, Raheem;Ji, Shouling
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제13권11호
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    • pp.5731-5754
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we redesign, implement, and evaluate ShareSafe (Based on SecGraph), an open-source secure graph data sharing/publishing platform. Within ShareSafe, we propose De-anonymization Quantification Module and Recommendation Module. Besides, we model the attackers' background knowledge and evaluate the relation between graph data privacy and the structure of the graph. To the best of our knowledge, ShareSafe is the first platform that enables users to perform data perturbation, utility evaluation, De-A evaluation, and Privacy Quantification. Leveraging ShareSafe, we conduct a more comprehensive and advanced utility and privacy evaluation. The results demonstrate that (1) The risk of privacy leakage of anonymized graph increases with the attackers' background knowledge. (2) For a successful de-anonymization attack, the seed mapping, even relatively small, plays a much more important role than the auxiliary graph. (3) The structure of graph has a fundamental and significant effect on the utility and privacy of the graph. (4) There is no optimal anonymization/de-anonymization algorithm. For different environment, the performance of each algorithm varies from each other.

Bayesian MCMC 및 Metropolis Hastings 알고리즘을 이용한 강우빈도분석에서 확률분포의 매개변수에 대한 불확실성 해석 (Uncertainty Analysis for Parameters of Probability Distribution in Rainfall Frequency Analysis by Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis Hastings Algorithm)

  • 서영민;박기범
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.329-340
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    • 2011
  • The probability concepts mainly used for rainfall or flood frequency analysis in water resources planning are the frequentist viewpoint that defines the probability as the limit of relative frequency, and the unknown parameters in probability model are considered as fixed constant numbers. Thus the probability is objective and the parameters have fixed values so that it is very difficult to specify probabilistically the uncertianty of these parameters. This study constructs the uncertainty evaluation model using Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis -Hastings algorithm for the uncertainty quantification of parameters of probability distribution in rainfall frequency analysis, and then from the application of Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis- Hastings algorithm, the statistical properties and uncertainty intervals of parameters of probability distribution can be quantified in the estimation of probability rainfall so that the basis for the framework configuration can be provided that can specify the uncertainty and risk in flood risk assessment and decision-making process.

확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발 (Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method)

  • 하선근;김태희;손기영;김지명;손승현
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제18권6호
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • 현재까지의 건설 안전관리와 리스크에 관한 연구들은 건설현장 내부(근로자)에 한정되어 있어 건설현장 외부(제 3자)에 대한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 그 결과, 건설현장 주변의 일반인들이 피해를 받고 있으며 산재 다발이라는 부정적인 이미지로 언론이나 일반 대중들에게 투영되고 있다. 일반 대중들에게 부정적인 이미지를 탈피하기 위해서는 건설현장 내부(공종, 건축물)에만 집중되어있는 기존의 안전관리가 아닌 건설 현장 외부(제 3자)에 대해서도 고려된 종합적 안전관리체계를 구축해야 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 건설 현장 외부(제 3자)의 인명사고 리스크를 정량화하고 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 리스크가 어떻게 변화할 것인지 예측하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 첫째, 선행연구를 고찰하여 불안전한 상태와 인명사고 발생형태를 정의한다. 둘째, 14년 간 건설현장 외부에서 발생한 제 3자 인명 손해배상액 데이터를 수집한다. 셋째, 수집된 데이터의 사고내용을 분석하여 사고 발생분석 모델을 설정한다. 넷째, 리스크 정량화 모델을 구축하고 불안전한 상태, 인명사고 발생형태별 사고발생확률과 손해배상액 확률분포를 제시한다. 마지막으로 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통해 도출된 사고 형태별 분포결과를 분석한다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 건설현장 내 외부 안전관리 체크리스트 개발 및 인명사고 예측 관리 시스템 개발의 참고 자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

금융혁신을 위한 핀테크 서비스의 보안 리스크 대응방안 연구 (A Study of Countermeasure against Security Risk of Fintech Services for Financial Innovation)

  • 박정국;김인재
    • 지식경영연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2015
  • Fintech, which means the convergence of finance and information technology, becomes a hot topic in the financial sector. Through innovative activities on financial services, ICT(Information and Communication Technology) is integrated into the overall financial industry, and a new form of financial services could be expected to improve the existing financial system. On the other hand, fintech services are relatively vulnerable to security issues. Due to the process simplication and the channel fusion, the leakage of personal and financial informations, authentication bypass, phishing, and pharming are getting more concerned. In this study we investigated the security risk of fintech services in the viewpoints of service provider, technology adoption, and security policy. The possible countermeasures to reduce those risks are suggested because security is an important criterion for selecting financial services. This study basically offers quantification of the potential security risks and step-by-step control measures about business processes in the fintech services. The suggested security model includes user authentication, terminal security, payment information protection, API(Application Programming Interface) security, and abnormal transaction monitoring. This study might contribute to an understanding of the security risks and some possible measures for mitigating those risks on the practical perspective.

원자력 안전문화의 정량화 방법론 개발 (Development of A New Methodology for Evaluating Nuclear Safety Culture)

  • 제무성;한기윤
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.174-180
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    • 2015
  • This study developed a Safety Culture Impact Assessment Model (SCIAM) which consists of a safety culture assessment methodology and a safety culture impact quantification methodology. The SCIAM uses safety culture impact index (SCII) to monitor the status of safety culture of the NPPs periodically and it uses relative core damage frequency (RCDF) to present the impact of safety culture on the safety of the NPPs. As a result of applying SCIAM to the reference plant (Kori 3), the standard for the healthy safety culture of the reference plant is suggested. SCIAM might contribute to improve the safety of the NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants) by monitoring the status of safety culture periodically and presenting the standard of healthy safety culture.