• 제목/요약/키워드: risk quantification

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A Framework for Quantifying the Damage to Residential Facilities Caused by Typhoon Changes (태풍 변화로 인한 주거시설 피해 정량화 프레임 워크 제안)

  • Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.797-807
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    • 2023
  • This research aims to investigate the alterations in typhoon patterns attributable to climate change and to quantitatively assess the risk of damage to residential structures. The increasing prevalence of climate anomalies and severe weather events, a consequence of global warming, is causing escalating damage globally. Notably, numerous countries are facing substantial devastation due to shifts in typhoon trajectories. Despite this, there exists a gap in empirical research quantifying the impact of these changes on building integrity and the associated risk alterations driven by climate change. In addressing this gap, our study analyzes the frequency and intensity of typhoons impacting Korea, examining the evolution of these meteorological phenomena. Furthermore, we employ the Korean Typhoon Vulnerability Function for residential facilities to quantify the altered risk posed by these changing patterns. The outcomes of this study provide the private sector with essential data to formulate diverse scenarios and business strategies in response to the escalating risks of typhoon-related damage. Additionally, it equips governmental bodies with the necessary insights to develop comprehensive risk management strategies to mitigate the effects of future typhoons.

Microbial contamination including Vibrio cholerae in fishery auction markets in West Sea, South Korea

  • Choi, Yukyung;Lee, Yewon;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Ha, Jimyeong;Oh, Hyemin;Shin, Il-Shik;Yoon, Yohan
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.26.1-26.7
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    • 2019
  • Background: The monitoring of pathogens of fishery auction markets is important to obtain safe fishery products regarding hygiene and sanitation. In this study, aerobic, coliform, Escherichia coli, and Vibrio cholerae were monitored in the fishery products and environmental samples obtained from fishery auction markets. Methods: The fishery products (flounder, octopus, skate, rock cod, sea bass, snail, monkfish, flatfish, comb pen shell, corb shell, conger eel, hairtail, croaker, and pilchard) were placed in filter bags, and the environmental samples (samples from the water tanks at the fishery auction markets, seawater from the fishery distribution vehicles, ice from wooden or plastic boxes, and surface samples from wooden and plastic boxes used for fish storage) were collected. Aerobic bacteria, E. coli, and coliform in the samples were enumerated on aerobic count plates and E. coli/coliform count plates, respectively. For V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 quantification, most probable number (MPN)-PCR analysis was performed. Results: Aerobic and coliform bacteria were detected in most samples, but E. coli was not detected. Wooden boxes were contaminated with high levels of aerobic and coliform bacteria in all seasons (spring, summer, and fall). During fall, V. cholerae non-O1 were detected in snails, hairtails, croakers, flatfishes, pilchards, plastic boxes, and water samples. Conclusions: These results indicate an increased prevalence of V. cholerae contamination in fishery products in fall, including food contact samples, which can be vehicles for cross-contamination.

Analysis of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Agricultural Waterways in Chungbuk and Gyeongbuk Provinces in Korea

  • Kim, Leesun;Lee, Jong-Hwa;Kim, Jeong-Han;Lee, Sung-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.345-351
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    • 2018
  • An efficient, quick and low-cost extraction and clean up method for the determination of 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the agricultural water samples was optimized using gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). The extraction of the target compounds in water sample was carried out with acetonitrile, followed by partitioning promoted by the addition of salt. As a clean-up procedure, dispersive solid phase extraction was employed to purify the analytes of interest for GC-MS/MS analysis. This method was successfully applied for the quantification of PAHs in real water samples collected for the purpose of monitoring from the waterways located in Chungbuk (15 sites) and Gyeongbuk (6 sites), S. Korea. Phenanthrene (0.54 to $2.53{\mu}gL^{-1}$) was detected in all the water samples collected from both the sites. Fluoranthene was detected in the water samples collected from the two sites in Gyeongbuk province, but other PAHs were not determined in these water sampling sites. Based on these results, the determined PAHs were conducted using an environmental risk assessment. The risk characterization ratios (RCRs) for phenanthrene ranged from 0.37 to 3.21. These RCR values referred to as risk was not controlled because RCR values of some sites were greater than 1. In conclusion, it is proposed that the optimized method in combination with GC-MS/MS could be successfully employed for the determination of PAHs in any environmental samples including water samples.

Uncertainty Analysis for Parameters of Probability Distribution in Rainfall Frequency Analysis by Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis Hastings Algorithm (Bayesian MCMC 및 Metropolis Hastings 알고리즘을 이용한 강우빈도분석에서 확률분포의 매개변수에 대한 불확실성 해석)

  • Seo, Young-Min;Park, Ki-Bum
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.329-340
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    • 2011
  • The probability concepts mainly used for rainfall or flood frequency analysis in water resources planning are the frequentist viewpoint that defines the probability as the limit of relative frequency, and the unknown parameters in probability model are considered as fixed constant numbers. Thus the probability is objective and the parameters have fixed values so that it is very difficult to specify probabilistically the uncertianty of these parameters. This study constructs the uncertainty evaluation model using Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis -Hastings algorithm for the uncertainty quantification of parameters of probability distribution in rainfall frequency analysis, and then from the application of Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis- Hastings algorithm, the statistical properties and uncertainty intervals of parameters of probability distribution can be quantified in the estimation of probability rainfall so that the basis for the framework configuration can be provided that can specify the uncertainty and risk in flood risk assessment and decision-making process.

A Study of Hospital Job Evaluation based on Criterion for High-Risk Job for Musculoskeletal Disorders (근골격계 부담작업 기준을 이용한 병원 작업에 대한 평가)

  • Park, Dong-Hyeon;Gi, Seo-Won;Choe, Sun-Yeong
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.573-582
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    • 2011
  • This study has three objectives; 1) Evaluate major jobs of hospital workers based on Criterion(Notification number 2003-24 from Ministry of Labor in Korea) for high-risk job for musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs), 2) Relate each jobs in criterion and the hospital jobs considered in this study, 3) Relate each jobs in criterion and MSDs symptoms of hospital workers. A total 141 hospital jobs was evaluated. Most hospital jobs belonged to the numbers 2(Job with repetitive motions by neck, shoulder, elbow, wrist or hand more than 2 hours a day) and 4(Job with unsupported and deviated postures by neck or back more than 2 hours a day) from criterion. Most hospital workers participated in this study thought that the numbers 1(Job with keyboard or mouse work more than 4 hours a day) and 2 from criterion were associated with their jobs. Further study for hospital jobs should be focused on breaking down quantification levels of each numbers in the criterion due to its atypical and non-repetitive job characteristics of hospital jobs.

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New Perspectives in Pediatric Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Epidemiology, Genetics, Diagnosis, and Natural History

  • Ko, Jae Sung
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.501-510
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    • 2019
  • Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease in children. The global prevalence of pediatric NAFLD from general populations is 7.6%. In obese children, the prevalence is higher in Asia. NAFLD has a strong heritable component based on ethnic difference in the prevalence and clustering within families. Genetic polymorphisms of patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3), transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2, and glucokinase regulatory protein (GCKR) are associated with the risk of NAFLD in children. Variants of PNPLA3 and GCKR are more common in Asians. Alterations of the gut microbiome might contribute to the pathogenesis of NAFLD. High fructose intake increases the risk of NAFLD. Liver fibrosis is a poor prognostic factor for disease progression to cirrhosis. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and magnetic resonance proton density fat fraction are more accurate for steatosis quantification than ultrasound. Noninvasive imaging methods to assess liver fibrosis, such as transient elastography, shear-wave elastography, and magnetic resonance elastography are useful in predicting advanced fibrosis, but they need further validation. Longitudinal follow-up studies into adulthood are needed to better understand the natural history of pediatric NAFLD.

Ambient Air Waste Sorting Facilities Could Be a Source of Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria

  • Calheiros, Ana;Santos, Joana;Ramos, Carla;Vasconcelos, Marta;Fernandes, Paulo
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.367-373
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    • 2021
  • The antimicrobial resistance of Staphylococcus spp. and Gram negative strains present in air samples from waste sorting facilities was assessed. Phenotypic studies have revealed a high percentage of strains of Staphylococcus spp. resistant to methicillin. Genotypically and by RT-PCR, it was found that the mecA gene usually associated with methicillin resistance was present in 8% of the Staphylococcus strains isolated. About 30% of the Gram negative strains from the same samples also displayed resistance to meropenem and 79% of these were resistant to multiple antibiotics from different classes, namely cephalosporins and β-lactams. The results suggest that in professional activities with high levels of exposure to biological agents, the quantification and identification of the microbial flora in the work environment, with the determination of the presence of potential agents displaying multi-resistances is of relevance to the risk assessment. The personal protection of workers is particularly important relevance in these cases, since many of the strains that exhibit multi-resistance are potential opportunistic agents.

Development of the framework for quantitative cyber risk assessment in nuclear facilities

  • Kwang-Seop Son;Jae-Gu Song;Jung-Woon Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.2034-2046
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    • 2023
  • Industrial control systems in nuclear facilities are facing increasing cyber threats due to the widespread use of information and communication equipment. To implement cyber security programs effectively through the RG 5.71, it is necessary to quantitatively assess cyber risks. However, this can be challenging due to limited historical data on threats and customized Critical Digital Assets (CDAs) in nuclear facilities. Previous works have focused on identifying data flows, the assets where the data is stored and processed, which means that the methods are heavily biased towards information security concerns. Additionally, in nuclear facilities, cyber threats need to be analyzed from a safety perspective. In this study, we use the system theoretic process analysis to identify system-level threat scenarios that could violate safety constraints. Instead of quantifying the likelihood of exploiting vulnerabilities, we quantify Security Control Measures (SCMs) against the identified threat scenarios. We classify the system and CDAs into four consequence-based classes, as presented in NEI 13-10, to analyze the adversary impact on CDAs. This allows for the ranking of identified threat scenarios according to the quantified SCMs. The proposed framework enables stakeholders to more effectively and accurately rank cyber risks, as well as establish security and response strategies.

Integrated Flood Risk Management through Modelling of Nature Based Solutions

  • Bastola, Shiksha;Kareem, Kola Yusuff;Park, Kiddo;Jung, Younghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.160-160
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    • 2022
  • Floods are the most common natural disasters and are annually causing severe destructions worldwide. Human activities, along with expected increased extreme precipitation patterns as a result of climate change enhance the future potential of floods. There are proven evidence that infrastructure based responses to flood disaster is no longer achieving optimum mitigation and have created a false sense of security. Nature-based solutions(NBS) is a widely accepted sustainable and efficient approach for disaster risk reduction and involves the protection, restoration, or management of natural and semi-natural ecosystems to tackle the climate and natural crisis. Adoption of NBS in decision-making, especially in developing nations is limited due to a lack of sufficient scenario-based studies, research, and technical knowledge. This study explores the knowledge gap and challenges on NBS adoption with case study of developing nation, specially for flood management, by the study of multiple scenario analysis in the context of climate, land-use change, and policies. Identification and quantification of the strength of natural ecosystems for flood resilience and water management can help to prioritize NBS in policymaking leading to sustainable measures for integrated flood management.

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Development of A New Methodology for Evaluating Nuclear Safety Culture (원자력 안전문화의 정량화 방법론 개발)

  • Jae, Moosung;Han, Kiyoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.174-180
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    • 2015
  • This study developed a Safety Culture Impact Assessment Model (SCIAM) which consists of a safety culture assessment methodology and a safety culture impact quantification methodology. The SCIAM uses safety culture impact index (SCII) to monitor the status of safety culture of the NPPs periodically and it uses relative core damage frequency (RCDF) to present the impact of safety culture on the safety of the NPPs. As a result of applying SCIAM to the reference plant (Kori 3), the standard for the healthy safety culture of the reference plant is suggested. SCIAM might contribute to improve the safety of the NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants) by monitoring the status of safety culture periodically and presenting the standard of healthy safety culture.