• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.89-95
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• 2007

In general, reliability of AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) depends on pairwise comparison of evaluators. In addition, human judgment on the importance of alternatives or criteria is always imprecise and vague. To cope with these shortcomings, Fuzzy AHP is suggested and used widely recently. But in Fuzzy AHP, it cannot deal with the evaluator's various attitudes towards risk and confidence owing to evaluator's different expertise and experience. This paper proposes a method for consideration of evaluator's confidence and risk attitude in Fuzzy AHP. And suggested methods are applied various scenarios to verify the meaningfulness. The result shows that the priority of alternatives can be change through the consideration of evaluator's confidence and risk attitude.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1998년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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• pp.899-905
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• 1998

The analysis priority makings the recommendation to reduce the total core damage frequency (CDF) of Wolsong nuclear Power Plant nits 2/3/4 was Performed in this paper. In order to derive the recommendation, the sensitivity analysis of CDF on which major contributors effect m performed based on the accident quantification results during Level 1 Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Priorities were ranked in tile way that compares the CDF reduction rate with efforts required to implement those recommendations using risk matrix

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.574-590
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• 2017

이 논문의 목적은 IPPs에서 발생할 수 있는 리스크 요소를 규정하고 퍼지 다기준 결정 방법론(Fuzzy MCDM)을 활용하여 사업 리스크의 우선순위와 가중치의 중요도를 분석함으로써 IPP 개발자에게 투자 의사결정 도구를 제공하는 것이다. Fuzzy MCDM은 응답자의 고유한 의견을 표현할 때 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 보다 명시적으로 반영할 수 있는 추정방법이다. 이 논문은 광범위한 문헌 조사를 통해 신용 리스크, 준공 리스크, 시장 리스크, 연료조달 리스크, 운영 리스크, 재무 리스크, 환경 리스크, 그리고 불가항력 등 PF조달과 관련한 8 개의 주요 사업리스크를 도출한다. 실증분석 결과는 시장 리스크가 사업리스크와 관련된 의사결정에서 있어 가장 중요한 리스크임을 보여준다. 이는 IPP에서 장기 전력판매계약이 가장 중요한 리스크 요소임을 보여주고 있으며, 점차 발주국 정부의 장기 전력판매계약에 대한 보증이 없는 자유시장에서 전력을 판매하는 소위 머천트 발전사업에서 시장 리스크를 줄이는 것이 중요함을 암시한다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

건설산업은 다수공정에 대규모의 자본과 인력, 자원이 투입되는 복합 산업으로써 투입 인자 및 내 외부 환경인자에서 발생가능한 리스크 요인에 대한 복합적이고 체계적인 경영 및 관리가 필요하다. 즉, 이들 투입 및 환경인자에 대한 체계적 리스크 관리를 통한 건설경영 확립으로 불필요한 지출 및 낭비를 막고 기대수익을 극대화 할 수 있다. 그러나 프로젝트 단위로 사업이 이루어지는 건설산업의 특성에 비추어 사업유형 및 특정 공정단위를 대상으로 하는 리스크 관련 연구는 활발하게 진행되고 있으나, 기업적인 차원에서 경영분야 전반에 내재되어 있는 리스크와 관련된 연구는 현재까지 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 건설경영 전반에 내포된 리스크 요인들을 규명하여 코드화된 체크리스트를 제시하고, 원도급 건설업체 경영진을 대상으로 한 설문분석을 통해 각 항목의 정량화된 중요도를 도출하였다. 또한 항목별 가중치를 고려하여 위험도를 분석함으로써, 건설경영 리스크 요인의 위험순위 및 위험등급을 평가하였다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.32-42
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• 2013

Objectives: Cryptosporidium, a protozoan parasite, has been recognized as a frequent cause of waterborne disease due to its extremely strong resistance against chlorine disinfection. Although there has as yet been no report of a Cryptosporidium outbreak through drinking water in Korea, it is important to estimate the health risk of Cryptosporidium in water supply systems because of the various infection cases in human and domestic animals and frequent detection reports on their oocysts in water environments. Methods: This study evaluated the annual infection risk of Cryptosporidium in tap water using the quantitative microbial risk assessment technique. Exposure assessment was performed upon the results of a national survey on Cryptosporidium on the water sources of 97 large-scale water purification plants in Korea, water treatment efficacy, and daily unboiled tap water consumption. The estimates of the US Environmental Protection Agency on the mean likelihood of infection from ingesting one oocyst were applied for effect assessment. Results: Using probabilistic methods, mean annual infection risk of Cryptosporidiosis by the intake of tap water was estimated to fall within the range of $2.3{\times}10^{-4}$ to $1.0{\times}10^{-3}$ (median $5.7{\times}10^{-4}$). The risk in using river sources was predicted to be four times higher than with lake sources. With 0.5-log higher removal efficacy, the risk was estimated to be $1.8{\times}10^{-4}$, and could then be lowered by one-third. Conclusions: These estimations can be compared with acceptable risk and then used to determine the adequacy and priority of various drinking water quality strategies such as the establishment of new treatment technology.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제36권6호
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• pp.456-464
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• 2010

Recently, heavy metals contamination of the agricultural soil and crops surrounding mining areas has been identified as one of the most serious environmental problems in South Korea. The Ministry of the Environment in Korea conducted a Preliminary National Environmental Health Survey (PNEHS) in abandoned metal mines in 2007. The priority for a subsequent detailed examination was ranked from the results of PNEHS. The studied mine which was ranked as being of the highest priority is located in the midwestern part of Korea and was operated from 1911 to 1985. In this study, the contamination levels of the heavy metals in the abandoned metal mine were investigated. From the results, the average daily dose (ADD), target hazard quotient (THQ) and target cancer risk of the heavy metals were evaluated. The concentration of arsenic (As) in all of the tailings from the mine was higher than its countermeasure standard of Korea. In particular, the highest concentration of As, 330 mg/kg, was up to 15 times higher than its countermeasure standard. The average concentration of As in agricultural soils was higher than the warning standard of Korea, and higher than its countermeasure standard at six sites. The average concentrations of the analyzed heavy metals in agricultural soil were below the warning standard, but concentrations of cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) at 4 sites were higher than its warning standard. The average concentration of As in surface water exceeded the warning standard of Korea. The value of the THQ of As for the tailings was higher than the health protection standard 1. The value of THQ of As for the farmlands was lower than the standard, while the hazard index (HI) of As was higher than the standard. The value of target cancer risk (TCR) of As, $6.44{\times}10^{-4}$, were higher than the health protection standard of a lifetime risk for TCR at $1{\times}10^{-6}$. This suggests that the residents around the metal mines are exposed to As pollution with a carcinogenic risk.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.51-72
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• 2002

This research was conducted to understand and analyze the health-related behaviors of middle school students and get fundamental research data essential to provide efficient student guidance and public health service at school. The interview using Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System(YRBSS). Translation and modification for Korean students of the YRBS. The Korean version of YRBS(Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System) that translation and modification for Korean students of the YRBS developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)was used to assessment to health-related behaviors of youth. The interviewees were 1040 enrolled students at middle school in Daegu metropolitan city. YRBSS monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young adults behaviors that contribute to unintentional and intentional injuries; tobacco use; alcohol and other drug use, sexual behaviors that contribute to unintended pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases(STDs)(including human immunodeficiency virus infection); unhealthy dietary behaviors; and physical activity. The result shows that over 30% of students rarely or never used safety belt and almost students were rarely or never wore a bicycle helmet. During the 12 months preceding the survey, 21.9% female students had felt so sad or hopeless almost every day for $\geq$ 2weeks in a row that they stopped doing some usually activities 20.5% of male middle school students have ever tried cigarette smoking. 26.2% of male students and 27.2% do female students had had over one drinks of alcohol during their lifetime(lifetime alcohol use). 47% of male students had had over one drinks of alcohol on $\geq$ 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey(current alcohol use). Over one half of female student were thought they were overweight. These results suggest that some risk behaviors be very prevalent in a korean middle school students and priority health-risk behaviors, which contribute to the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among youth and adult, often are establish during middle school age, extend into adulthood, are interrelated. Among both children and adults, the leading causes of death are closely linked to these behaviors. Among adults, chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes are the national leading killers. Practicing healthy behaviors, such as eating low-fat, high-fruit-and-vegetable diets, getting regular physical activity, and refraining from tobacco use, would prevent many premature deaths. Because health-related behaviors are usually established in childhood, positive choices need to be promoted before damaging behaviors are initiated or become ingrained.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.76-84
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• 2021

품질보증활동은 양산단계에서 위험 식별을 기반으로 품질에 영향을 주는 인자를 확인할 수 있다. 위험 식별은 고장 분석을 통해 이루어지며, 회전익 항공기 착륙장치에 대한 고장 분석 방법은 고장 유형 영향 분석(FMEA)으로 선정하였다. FMEA는 고장 유형에 대해서 심각도, 발생도, 검출도에 대한 정보를 결합하여 품질에 영향을 미치는 인자를 확인하는 방법이다. FMEA 결과는 위험도를 통해 고장 우선순위를 결정한다. 하지만 심각도, 발생도, 검출도에 대한 중요도는 동일하게 구성된다. Dempster-Shafer 증거 이론은 경험과 주관이 반영된 의견에 대해서 불확실성 분석을 수행한다. 또한, Dempster-Shafer 증거 이론은 믿음 함수와 개연성 함수를 구성할 수 있으며, 믿음 함수와 개연성 함수를 통해 가설의 믿음 정도, 신뢰도를 확인할 수 있다. 회전익 항공기 착륙장치는 이륙 및 착륙 시 충격을 받는 구성품으로, 양산단계에서 고장 유형을 관리하는 것이 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 회전익 항공기 착륙장치의 고장 유형에 대한 위험도 분석을 위해 Dempster-Shafer 증거 이론을 이용한 FMEA를 제안하고, 고장 우선순위를 결정한다. 결과는 믿음 함수 및 개연성 함수 곡선을 통해 도출한다.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.83-93
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• 2010

건설프로젝트가 점차 복잡화, 대형화 되어감에 따라 건설공사에서의 위험요소와 불확실성이 증가하고 있으며, 프로젝트 수행과정에서 발생하는 불확실한 요인을 사전에 파악하여 대응하는 것은 프로젝트의 승패를 좌우할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 토공사, 기초공사, 철근콘크리트 공사에서의 제약조건과 위험요소를 파악함과 동시에 시공 계획수립의 실태를 분석함으로써 위험을 저감할 수 있는 방안을 제시하는 것이다. 이러한 연구목적을 달성하기 위해 위험분류체계에 관한 기존연구를 고찰하였으며, 건설현장에 근무하는 기사를 대상으로 인터뷰조사를 실시하여 안전 관리의 문제점을 구체화하기 위해 실증적인 현장사례연구를 수행하였다. 주요 연구내용은 건설현장의 특수상황 및 주요 공법의 적용실태, 제약조건과 위험요소의 인과관계이며, 위험을 저감하기 위한 중점관리 방안을 제시하였다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.397-406
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• 2014

Objectives: Perchloroethylene (PCE) is a volatile chemical widely used as a solvent in the dry-cleaning and textile processing industries. It was evaluated as Group 2 "probably carcinogenic to humans" by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) of the United State Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in 2012. In order to provide a scientific basis for establishing risk management measures for chemicals on the national priority substances list, aggregate risk assessment was conducted for PCE, included in the top-10 substances. Methods: We conducted the investigation and monitoring of PCE exposure (e.g., exposure scenario, detection levels, and exposure factors, etc.) and assessed its multi-media (e.g., outdoor air, indoor air, and ground water) exposure risk with a deterministic and probabilistic approach. Results: In human risk assessment (HRA), the level of human exposure was higher in the younger age group. The exposure level through inhalation at home was the highest among the exposure routes. Outdoor air or uptake of drinking water represented less than 1% of total contributions to PCE exposure. These findings suggested that the level of risk was negligible since the Hazard Index (HI) induced by HRA was below one among all age groups, with a maximum HI value of 0.17 when reasonable maximum exposure was applied. Conclusion: In conclusion, it was suggested that despite low exposure risk, further studies are needed considering main sources, including occupational exposure.