• 경제분석
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.1-32
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• 2021

본 연구는 통화정책 전달경로 중 은행자본경로와 위험추구경로가 국내은행에도 작동하는지에 대해 실증분석하였다. 이를 위해 확장적 통화정책이 은행의 예대금리차, BIS비율, 위험가중자산비율 및 대출 등에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 실증분석은 기존 연구에서 통화정책 영향분석에 많이 사용된 Uhlig (2005)의 부호제약 SVAR(Structural VAR) 모형을 토대로 실시하였다. 본 연구는 실증분석을 통해 국내외 기존 연구 결과와 유사하게 국내은행에서도 은행자본경로 및 위험추구경로가 작동하는 것을 확인하였다. 확장적 통화충격에 대해 국내은행의 예대금리차는 확대되었으며, 자기자본비율은 개선되었고, 이후 총대출이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 은행자본경로가 작동함을 의미한다. 또한, 실질콜금리에 대한 확장적 통화충격에 대해 위험가중자산비율이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 위험추구경로가 작동함을 의미한다. 본 연구의 시사점은 다음과 같다. 확장적 통화정책 지속 시 은행자본경로 작동으로 단기적으로 은행 건전성과 수익성이 개선되는 효과도 있으나, 위험추구경로 작동으로 중장기적으로 은행의 위험추구(risk-taking) 행위가 심화되어 은행의 실질적 건전성에 악영향을 줄 수 있다. 이에 따라 금융당국은 확장적 통화정책 지속 시 편중리스크 발생 및 시스템리스크 증가 등에 대한 선제적인 모니터링 및 감독을 강화할 필요가 있다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.197-206
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• 2015

Background: The purpose of this study was to propose a method for developing a measure of hospital-wide all-cause risk-standardized readmissions using administrative claims data in Korea and to discuss further considerations in the refinement and implementation of the readmission measure. Methods: By adapting the methodology of the United States Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services for creating a 30-day readmission measure, we developed a 6-step approach for generating a comparable measure using Korean datasets. Using the 2010 Korean National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data as the development dataset, hierarchical regression models were fitted to calculate a hospital-wide all-cause risk-standardized readmission measure. Six regression models were fitted to calculate the readmission rates of six clinical condition groups, respectively and a single, weighted, overall readmission rate was calculated from the readmission rates of these subgroups. Lastly, the case mix differences among hospitals were risk-adjusted using patient-level comorbidity variables. The model was validated using the 2009 NHI claims data as the validation dataset. Results: The unadjusted, hospital-wide all-cause readmission rate was 13.37%, and the adjusted risk-standardized rate was 10.90%, varying by hospital type. The highest risk-standardized readmission rate was in hospitals (11.43%), followed by general hospitals (9.40%) and tertiary hospitals (7.04%). Conclusion: The newly developed, hospital-wide all-cause readmission measure can be used in quality and performance evaluations of hospitals in Korea. Needed are further methodological refinements of the readmission measures and also strategies to implement the measure as a hospital performance indicator.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제49권3호
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• pp.299-312
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• 2021

Purpose: We provide a condition-based maintenance policy where a surrogate variable is used for monitoring system performance. We constructed a risk function by taking into account the risk and losses accompanied with erroneous decisions. Methods: Assuming a unique degradation process for the performance variable and its specific relationship with the surrogate variable, the maintenance policy is determined. A risk function is developed on the basis of producer's and consumer's risks accompanied with each decision. With a strategic safety factor considered, the optimal threshold value for the surrogate variable is determined based on the risk function. Results: The condition-based maintenance is analyzed from the point of risk. With an assumed safety consideration, the optimal threshold value of the surrogate variable is provided for taking a maintenance action. The optimal solution cannot be obtained in a closed form. An illustrative numerical example and solution is provided with a source code of R program. Conclusion: The study can be applied to situation where a sensor signal is issued if the system performance begins to degrade gradually and reaches eventually its functional failure. The study can be extended to the case where two or more performance variables are connected to a same surrogate variable. Also estimation of the distribution parameters and risk coefficients should be further studied.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.158-172
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• 2021

Background: Metabolic syndrome has been known as a risk of cardiovascular disease. Meanwhile, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is used as a predictor of cardiovascular disease. In this paper, we aimed to investigate the association between hs-CRP and metabolic syndrome. Method: A total of 7,633 were chosen as the study population from the 7th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey dataset (2016-2017). Our dependent variable was whether an individual had metabolic syndrome or not, and the independent variable of interest was hs-CRP which was categorized into three groups. The chi-square tests and hierarchical logistic regression analyses reflecting survey characteristics were conducted. All analyses were stratified by gender. Results: According to the adjusted model with all covariates, compared to individuals having the low risk of hs-CRP, those having its average risk were more likely to have metabolic syndrome in men (odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.76) and women (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.33-2.16). Individuals having the high risk was not significantly different in men; however, they were more likely to have metabolic syndrome in women (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.28-3.23). Conclusion: In an upcoming aging society, it is important to reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome to improve population health. This study suggests that hs-CRP may be used as a marker of the risk of metabolic syndrome in a gender-specific way, thereby contributing to enhancing awareness of the risk of metabolic syndrome among the general public.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.3-38
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• 2015

Fama's (1984) volatility relations show that the risk premium in foreign exchange markets is more volatile than, and is negatively correlated with the expected rate of depreciation. This paper studies these relations from the perspective of goods markets frictions. Using a sticky-price general equilibrium model, we show that near-random walk behaviors of both exchange rates and consumption, in response to monetary shocks, can be derived endogenously. Based on this approach, the paper provides quantitative results on Fama's volatility relations.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2018

Purpose - This paper explores the determinants of bank lending to firms during and after the global financial crisis using firm- and bank-level data to answer the questions what caused the contraction of lending to firms despite the loosening monetary policy during this crisis period. Research design, data, and methodology - We investigate the effects of the monetary policy that followed the global financial crisis on firms borrowing. We use a dynamic panel model to address how firms lending respond to monetary policy. The data are obtained from CRETOP and we consider the manufacturing sector for the analysis to control for unobserved heterogeneity such as industry-specific shocks. Results - The findings from the empirical analysis suggest that both bank- and firm-level characteristics are significant determinants of bank lending. Especially, we find that corporate risk, measured by default risk, is one of the key factors that led to a decline in lending during the crisis. Conclusions - This paper shows that companies borrow more from liquid banks, and high bank capital can also contribute to an increase in a firm's borrowing from banks. Especially, the results confirm that the default rate measured at the firm level has increased during and after the global financial crisis, which implies that default risk interplays with other firm and bank-level characteristics.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.467-467
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• 2012

As the features of recent flood are spatially concentrated, loss of life and property increase by the impact of climate change. In addition to this the public interest in water control information is increased and socially reasonable justification of water control policy is needed. It is necessary to estimate the flood risk in order to let people know the status of flood control and establish flood control policy. For accurate flood risk analysis, we should consider inter-relation between causal factors of flood damage. Hence, flood risk analysis should be applied to interdependence of the factors selected. The Bayesian networks are ideally suited to assist decision-making in situations where there is uncertainty in the data and where the variables are highly interlinked. In this research, to provide more proper water control information the flood risk analysis is performed using the Bayesian networks to handle uncertainty and dependency among 13 specific proxy variables.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.1150-1156
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• 2019

This paper explores a model-free value-based approach for solving survival gridworld problem. Survival gridworld problem opens up a challenge involving taking risks to gain better rewards. Classic value-based approach in model-free reinforcement learning assumes minimal risk decisions. The proposed method involves a hybrid on-policy and off-policy updates to experience roll-outs using a modified Q-based update equation that introduces a parametric linear rectifier and motivational discount. The significance of this approach is it allows model-free training of agents that take into account risk factors and motivated exploration to gain better path decisions. Experimentations suggest that the proposed method achieved better exploration and path selection resulting to higher episode scores than classic off-policy and on-policy Q-based updates.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.45-70
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• 2009

Outbreaks of health risks such as the Influenza A virus (H1N1) are continuing, which highlights the immediacy of risk control strategies to reduce public's fear and protect the safety of the society. Evidence suggests that success for risk management is basically dependent on the public's willingness to adopt health behaviors recommended by experts, and the behavioral intention relies on their risk perception. Understanding of how individuals think of and feel about health risks is thereby important. This article aims to provide insights for future study on health-risk perception. The main streams and recent developments of theorizing and research on health risk perception are reviewed. The issues, such as (1) health risk perception is an important component for shaping relevant health policies as it reflects public trust of the institutions managing health risks, (2) despite this significance, however, few attempts have been made to address the meaning of 'perceiving health risks' in health services research, are shed light on. On the basis on the critical discussion of the contributions and the limitations of the literature, this article finishes with a few of research agendas by three levels of analysis in risk perception research.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.136-143
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• 2014

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has been instrumental in guiding global health policy development since the early 1990s. The GBD 2010 project provided rich information about the key causes of mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and their associated risk factors in Japan and provided a unique opportunity to incorporate these data into health planning. As part of the latest update of this project, GBD 2013, the Japanese GBD collaborators plan to update and refine the available burden of disease data by incorporating sub-national estimates of the burden of disease at the prefectural level. These estimates will provide health planners and policy makers at both the national and prefectural level with new, more refined tools to adapt local public health initiatives to meet the health needs of local populations. Moreover, they will enable the Japanese health system to better respond to the unique challenges in their rapidly aging population and as a complex combination of non-communicable disease risk factors begin to dominate the policy agenda. Regional collaborations will enable nations to learn from the experiences of other nations that may be at different stages of the epidemiological transition and have different exposure profiles and associated health effects. Such analyses and improvements in the data collection systems will further improve the health of the Japanese, maintain Japan's excellent record of health equity, and provide a better understanding of the direction of health policy in the region.