• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.24-29
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• 2016

This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.46-53
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• 2017

The risk is expressed as consequence of damage multiplied by likelihood of failure. The installation of a protective system reduces the risk by reducing the likelihood of failure at the facility. Also, the protective system has different effects on the likelihood of failure according to the proof test cycle. However, when assessing risks in the Off-site Risk Assessment (ORA) system, the variation in risk was not reflected according to the proof test cycle of protective system. This study was conducted to examine the need for proof test and the importance of cycle setting by applying periodic proof test of the protective system to ORA. The results showed that the likelihood of failure and the risk increased with longer proof test cycle. The risk of a two-yearly proof test was eight times greater than that of a three-month cycle. From the results, the protective system needs periodic proof test. Untested protective system for a long term cannot be reliable because it is more likely to be failed state when it is called upon to operate. In order to reduce the risk to an acceptable level, it is effective to differently set the proof test cycle according to the priority. This study suggested a more systematic and accurate risk analysis standard than ORA. This standard is expected to enable an acceptable level of risk management by systematically setting the priority and proof test cycle of the protective system. It is also expected to contribute to securing the safety of chemical facilities and at the same time, will lead to the development of the ORA system.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

The quantitative risk assessment methods for thermal failure in targets were studied using fire modeling. To this end, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used and the probabilities related to thermal damage to an electrical cable were evaluated according to the change in fire area inside a specific compartment. 'The maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds' adopted in a conservative point of view and 'the probability of failure' including the time to damage were compared. The probability of failure suggested in the present study could evaluate the quantitative fire risk more realistically, compared to the maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds with the assumption that thermal damage occurred the instant the target reached its minimum failure criteria in terms of the surface temperature and heat flux.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.49-64
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• 2015

This paper presents a method for assessing the risk of wave run-up and overtopping of existing coastal defences and for analysing the probability of failure of the structures under future hydraulic conditions. The recent UK climate projections are employed in the investigations of the influence of changing environments on the long-term performance of sea defences. In order to reduce the risk of wave run-up and overtopping caused by rising sea level and to maintain the present-day allowances for wave run-up height and overtopping discharge, the future necessary increase in crest level of existing structures is investigated. Various critical failure mechanisms are considered for reliability analysis, i.e., erosion of crest by wave overtopping, failure of seaside revetment, and internal erosions within earth sea dykes. The time-dependent reliability of sea dykes is analysed to give probability of failure with time. The results for an example earth dyke section show that the necessary increase in crest level is approximately double of sea level rise to maintain the current allowances. The probability of failure for various failure modes of the earth dyke has a significant increase with time under future hydraulic conditions.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.20-26
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• 2006

In the fields of mechanical reliability application, "zero" or "zero or one" failure tests are most commonly used for demonstrating reliability of a product since they reduce test duration and/or sample size compared to other test methods that guarantees the same reliability of a product with a given confidence level or consumer's risk. The test duration of the "zero or one" failure test is longer than that of "zero" failure test but it has advantage of smaller producer's risk. In this paper a two-stage test is developed that compromises the "zero" and "zero or one" failure tests. The properties of the proposed two-stage test are investigated and the three test methods are compared using a numerical example.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.87-100
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• 2014

Risk management is recognized as a significant element in Information Security Management while the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is widely used in risk analysis in manufacturing industry. This paper aims to present the development work of the Information Security FMEA Circle (InfoSec FMEA Circle) which is used to support the risk management framework by modifying traditional FMEA methodologies. In order to demonstrate the "appropriateness" of the InfoSec FMEA Circle for the purposes of assessing information security, a case study at Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation (HKSTP) is employed. The "InfoSec FMEA Circle" is found to be an effective risk assessment methodology that has a significant contribution to providing a stepwise risk management implementation model for information security management.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.108-113
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• 2015

Plastic injection moulding machine is widely used for many industrial field. It is classified into mandatory safety certification machinery in Industrial Safety and Health Act because of its high hazard. In order to prevent industrial accidents by plastic injection moulding machine, it is necessary for designer to identify hazardous factors and assess the failure modes to mitigate them. This study tabulates the failure modes of main parts of plastic injection moulding machine and how their failure has affect on the machine being considered. Failure Mode & Effect Analysis(FMEA) method has been used to assess the hazard on plastic injection moulding machine. Risk and risk priority number(RPN) has been calculated in order to estimate the hazard of failures using severity, probability and detection. Accidents caused by plastic injection moulding machine is compared with the RPN which was estimated by main regions such as injection unit, clamping unit, hydraulic and system units to find out the most dangerous region. As the results, the order of RPN is injection unit, clamping unit, hydraulic unit and system units. Barrel is the most dangerous part in the plastic injection moulding machine.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2000.03b
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• pp.411-418
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• 2000

With the limited amount of budget and time, it is required to determine the priority of investment when there are a large number of hazardous slopes. In this paper, the Rock Slope Risk Rating System is developed based on the combination of the hazard of failure and the damage potential. By applying the proposed rating system to 253 rock slopes in Korean National Highway, it was possible to determine the priority of investment on road cut slopes.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.193-205
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• 2022

The face stability of shield tunnelling is the most important control index for safety risk management. Based on the reliability of the transparent clay (TC) model test, a series of TC model tests under different buried depth were conducted to investigate the progressive failure mechanism of tunnel face. The support pressure was divided into the rapid descent stage, the slow descent stage and the basically stable stage with company of the local failure and integral failure in the internal of the soil during the failure process. The relationship between the support pressure and the soil movement characteristics of each failure stage was defined. The failure occurred from the soil in front of the tunnel face and propagated as the slip zone and the loose zone. The fitted formulas were proposed for the calculation of the failure process. The failure mode in clay was specified as the basin shape with an inverted trapezoid shape for shallow buried and appeared as the basin shape with a teardrop-like shape in deep case. The implications of these findings could help in the safety risk management of the underground construction.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.37-41
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• 2018

Process safety technology has developed from qualitative methods such as HAZOP (hazard and operability study) to semi-quantitative methods such as LOPA (layer of protection analysis), and quantitative methods are actively studied these days. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is often based on fault tree analysis (FTA). FTA is efficient, but difficult to apply when failure events are not independent of each other. This problem can be avoided using a Markov process (MP). MP requires definition of all possible states, and thus, generally, is more complicated than FTA. A method is proposed in this work that uses an MP model and a Weibull distribution model in order to construct a reliability model for multiple dependent failures. As a case study, a pressure safety valve (PSV) is considered, for which there are three kinds of failure, i.e. open failure, close failure, and gas tight failure. According to recently reported inspection results, open failure and close failure are dependent on each other. A reliability model for a PSV group is proposed in this work that is to reproduce these results. It is expected that the application of the proposed method can be expanded to QRA of various systems that have partially dependent multiple failure states.