• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk functions

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Development of remote control automatic fire extinguishing system for fire suppression in double-deck tunnel (복층터널 화재대응을 위한 원격 자동소화 시스템 개발 연구)

  • Park, Jinouk;Yoo, Yongho;Kim, Yangkyun;Park, Byoungjik;Kim, Whiseong;Park, Sangheon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2019
  • To effectively deal with the fire in tunnel which is mostly the vehicle fire, it's more important to suppress the fire at early stage. In urban tunnel, however, accessibility to the scene of fire by the fire fighter is very limited due to severe traffic congestion which causes the difficulty with firefighting activity in timely manner and such a problem would be further worsened in underground road (double-deck tunnel) which has been increasingly extended and deepened. In preparation for the disaster in Korea, the range of life safety facilities for installation is defined based on category of the extension and fire protection referring to risk hazard index which is determined depending on tunnel length and conditions, and particularly to directly deal with the tunnel fire, fire extinguisher, indoor hydrant and sprinkler are designated as the mandatory facilities depending on category. But such fire extinguishing installations are found inappropriate functionally and technically and thus the measure to improve the system needs to be taken. Particularly in a double-deck tunnel which accommodates the traffic in both directions within a single tunnel of which section is divided by intermediate slab, the facility or the system which functions more rapidly and effectively is more than important. This study, thus, is intended to supplement the problems with existing tunnel life safety system (fire extinguishing) and develop the remote-controlled automatic fire extinguishing system which is optimized for a double-deck tunnel. Consequently, the system considering low floor height and extended length as well as indoor hydrant for a wide range of use have been developed together with the performance verification and the process for commercialization before applying to the tunnel is underway now.

Does Sarcopenic Obesity Affect Physical Function and Physical Fitness of Korean Older Women? (근위축비만이 국내 여성고령자의 신체기능과 체력에 미치는 영향)

  • Hong, Seung-youn
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.831-842
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    • 2010
  • BACKGROUND: Sarcopenic obesity(SO), a condition of the reduction in muscle mass paired with an increased fat mass has been paid attention because of its association with disability in later life. A few evidence, however, has reported the association with these factors. PURPOSE: To explore the association among SO, physical function and fitness in older women. METHOD: 257 older women(age of 74) were recruited from Y city and 7 physical functions and 4 fitness tests were measured. Participants were classified into one of four groups based on their body fat and muscle mass: Normal group (GR-A), high fat(GR-B), sarcopenia(GR-C), and sarcopenic obese(GR-D). GLMand LSD-test were conducted with SPSS 12.0. RESULTS: Chair stand, arm-curl, back-scratch, 2-min steps of GR-A was higher than GR-C and GR-D(p<.05). One-leg stand of GR-A was higher than GR-D(p<.01) and of GR-C was higher than GR-D(p<.01).8ft-TUG of GR-D was lower than GR-A(p<.01). Grip strength, knee extension of GR-A was higher than that of GR-C and GR-D(p<.01) and knee flexion of GR-A was also higher than that of GR-C and GR-D(p<.01). CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, we conclude that SO is significantly associated with lower physical function and fitness in older Korean women, which alarm the risk of frailty induced by SO.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

An Overview of the Rationale of Monetary and Banking Intervention: The Role of the Central Bank in Money and Banking Revisited (화폐(貨幣)·금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)에 대한 고찰(考察) : 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 존립근거(存立根據)에 대한 개관(槪觀))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 1990
  • This paper reviews the rationale of monetary and banking intervention by an outside authority, either the government or the central bank, and seeks to delineate clearly the optimal limits to the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway in Korea as well as on a global scale. Furthermore, this paper seeks to establish an objective and balanced view on the role of the central bank, especially in light of the current discussion on the restructuring of Korea's central bank, which has been severely contaminated by interest-group politics. The discussion begins with the recognition that the modern free banking school and the new monetary economics are becoming formidable challenges to the traditional role of the government or the central bank in the monetary and banking sector. The paper reviews six arguments that have traditionally been presented to support intervention: (1) the possibility of an over-issue of bank notes under free banking instead of central banking; (2) externalities in and the public good nature of the use of money; (3) economies of scale and natural monopoly in producing money; (4) the need for macro stabilization policy due to the instability of the real sector; (5) the external effects of bank failure due to the inherent instability of the existing banking system; and (6) protection for small banknote users and depositors. Based on an analysis of the above arguments, the paper speculates on the optimal role of the government or central bank in the monetary and banking system and the optimal degree of monetary and banking deregulation. By contrast to the arguments for free banking or laissez-faire monetary systems, which become fashionable in recent years, monopoly and intervention by the government or central bank in the outside money system can be both necessary and optimal. In this case, of course, an over-issue of fiat money may be possible due to political considerations, but this issue is beyond the scope of this paper. On the other hand, the issue of inside monies based on outside money could indeed be provided for optimally under market competition by private institutions. A competitive system in issuing inside monies would help realize, to the maxim urn extent possible, external economies generated by using a single outside money. According to this reasoning, free banking activities will prevail in the inside money system, while a government monopoly will prevail in the outside money system. This speculation, then, also implies that the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway should and most likely will be limited to the inside money system, which could be liberalized to the fullest degree. It is also implied that it will be impractical to deregulate the outside money system and to allow market competition to provide outside money, in accordance with the arguments of the free banking school and the new monetary economics. Furthermore, the role of the government or central bank in this new environment will not be significantly different from their current roles. As far as the supply of fiat money continues to be monopolized by the government, the control of the supply of base money and such related responsibilities as monetary policy (argument(4)) and the lender of the last resort (argument (5)) will naturally be assigned to the outside money supplier. However, a mechanism for controlling an over-issue of fiat money by a monopolistic supplier will definitely be called for (argument(1)). A monetary policy based on a certain policy rule could be one possibility. More importantly, the deregulation of the inside money system would further increase the systemic risk inherent in the current fractional banking system, while enhancing the efficiency of the system (argument (5)). In this context, the role of the lender of the last resort would again become an instrument of paramount importance in alleviating liquidity crises in the early stages, thereby disallowing the possibility of a widespread bank run. Similarly, prudential banking supervision would also help maintain the safety and soundness of the fully deregulated banking system. These functions would also help protect depositors from losses due to bank failures (argument (6)). Finally, these speculations suggest that government or central bank authorities have probably been too conservative on the issue of the deregulation of the financial system, beyond the caution necessary to preserve system safety. Rather, only the fullest deregulation of the inside money system seems to guarantee the maximum enjoyment of external economies in the single outside money system.

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The Cox-Maze Procedure for Atrial Fibrillation Concomitant with Mitral Valve Disease (승모판막질환에 동반된 심방세동에서 Cox-Maze 술식)

  • Kim, Ki-Bong;Cho, Kwang-Ree;Ahn, Hyuk
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.10
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    • pp.939-944
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    • 1998
  • Background: The sugical results of the Cox-Maze procedure (CMP) for lone atrial fibrillation(AF) have proven to be exellent. However, those for AF associated with mitral valve(MV) disease have been reported to be a little inferior. Materials and methods: To assess the efficacy and safety of the CMP as a combined procedure with MV operation, we studied retrospectively our experiences. Between April 1994 and October 1997, we experienced 70 (23 males, 47 females) cases of CMP concomitantly with MV operation. Results: The etiologies of MV disease were rheumatic in 67 and degenerative in 3 cases. The mean duration of AF before sugery was 66$\pm$70 months. Fifteen patients had the past medical history of thromboembolic complications, and left atrial thrombi were identified at operation in 24 patients. Twelve cases were reoperations. Aortic cross clamp (ACC) time was mean 151$\pm$44 minutes, and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time was mean 246$\pm$65 minutes. Concomitant procedures were mitral valve replacement (MVR) in 19, MVR and aortic valve replacement (AVR) in 14, MVR and tricupid annuloplasty (TAP) in 8, MVR with AV repair in 3, MV repair in 11, MVR and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in 2, MVR and AVR and CABG in 1, redo-MVR in 10, redo-MVR and redo-AVR in 2 patients. The rate of hospital mortality was 1.4%(1/70). Perioperative recurrence of AF was seen in 44(62.9%), and atrial tachyarrhythmias in 10(14.3%), low cardiac output syndrome in 4(5.7%), postoperative bleeding that required mediastinal exploration in 4(5.7%) patients. Other complications were acute renal failure in 2, aggravation of preoperative hemiplegia in 1, and transient delirium in 1 patient. We followed up all the survivors for 16.4 months(3-44months) on an average. Sinus rhythm has been restored in 65(94.2%) patients. AF has been controlled by operation alone in 73.9% and operation plus medication in 20.3%. Two patients needed permanent pacemaker implantation; one with sick sinus syndrome, and the other with tachycardia- bradycardia syndrome. Only two patients remained in AF. We followed up our patients with transthoracic echocardiography to assess the atrial contractilities and other cardiac functions. Right atrial contractility could be demonstrated in 92% and left atrial contractility in 53%.We compared our non-redo cases with redo cases. Although the duration of AF was significantly longer in redo cases, there was no differences in ACC time, CPB time, postoperative bleeding amount and sinus conversion rate. Conclusions: In conclusion, the CMP concomitant with MV operation demonstrated a high sinus conversion rate under the acceptable operative risk even in case of reoperation.

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In the Treatment I-131, the Significance of the Research that the Patient's Discharge Dose and Treatment Ward can Affect a Patient's Kidney Function on the Significance of Various Factors (I-131 치료시 환자의 신장기능과 다양한 요인으로 의한 퇴원선량 및 치료병실 오염도의 유의성에 관한 연구)

  • Im, Kwang Seok;Choi, Hak Gi;Lee, Gi Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.62-66
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: I-131 is a radioisotope widely used for thyroid gland treatments. The physical half life is 8.01 and characterized by emitting beta and gamma rays which is used in clinical practice for the purpose of acquiring treatment and images. In order to reduce the recurrence rate after surgery in high-risk thyroid cancer patients, the remaining thyroid tissue is either removed or the I-131 is used for treatment during relapse. In cases of using a high dosage of radioactive iodine requiring hospitalization, the patient is administered dosage in the hospital isolation ward over a certain period of time preventing I-131 exposure to others. By checking the radiation amount emitted from patients before discharge, the patients are discharged after checking whether they meet the legal standards (50 uSv/h). After patients are discharged from the hospital, the contamination level is checked in many parts of the ward before the next patients are hospitalized and when necessary, decontamination operations are performed. It is expected that there is exposure to radiation when measuring the ward contamination level and dose check emitted from patients at the time of discharge whereby the radiation exposure by health workers that come from the patients in this process is the main factor. This study analyzed the correlation between discharge dose of patients and ward contamination level through a variety of factors such as renal functions, gender, age, dosage, etc.). Materials and Method: The study was conducted on 151 patients who received high-dosage radioactive iodine treatment at Soon Chun Hyang University Hospital during the period between 8/1/2011~5/31/2012 (Male: Female: 31:120, $47.5{\pm}11.9$, average dosage of $138{\pm}22.4$ mCi). As various factors expected to influence the patient discharge dose & ward contamination such as the beds, floors, bathroom floors, and washbasins, the patient renal function (GFR), age, gender, dosage, and the correlation between the expected Tg & Tg-Tb expected to reflect the remaining tissue in patients were analyzed. Results: In terms of the discharge dose and GFR, a low correlation was shown in the patient discharge dose as the GFR was higher (p < 0.0001). When comparing the group with a dosage of over 150mCi and the group with a lower dosage, the lower dosage group showed a significantly lower discharge dose ($24{\pm}10.4uSv/h$ vs $28.7{\pm}11.8uSv/h$, p<0.05). Age, gender, Tg, Tg-Tb did not show a significant relationship with discharge dose (p> 0.05). The contamination level in each spot of the treatment ward showed no significant relationship with GFR, Tg, Tg-Tb, age, gender, and dosage (p>0.05 ). Conclusion: This study says that discharge of the dose in the patient's body is low in GFR higher and Dosage 150mCi under lower. There was no case of contamination of the treatment ward, depending on the dose and renal association. This suggests that patients' lifestyles or be affected by a variety of other factors.

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Scale and Scope Economies and Prospect for the Korea's Banking Industry (우리나라 은행산업(銀行産業)의 효율성분석(效率性分析)과 제도개선방안(制度改善方案))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.109-153
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    • 1992
  • This paper estimates a translog cost function for the Korea's banking industry and derives various implications on the prospect for the Korean banking structure in the future based on the estimated efficiency indicators for the banking sector. The Korean banking industry is permitted to operate trust business to the full extent and the security business to a limited extent, while it is formally subjected to the strict, specialized banking system. Security underwriting and investment businesses are allowed in a very limited extent only for stocks and bonds of maturity longer than three year and only up to 100 percent of the bank paid-in capital. Until the end of 1991, the ceiling was only up to 25 percent of the total balance of the demand deposits. However, they are prohibited from the security brokerage business. While the in-house integration of security businesses with the traditional business of deposit and commercial lending is restrictively regulated as such, Korean banks can enter the security business by establishing subsidiaries in the industry. This paper, therefore, estimates the efficiency indicators as well as the cost functions, identifying the in-house integrated trust business and security investment business as important banking activities, for various cases where both the production and the intermediation function approaches in modelling the financial intermediaries are separately applied, and the banking businesses of deposit, lending and security investment as one group and the trust businesses as another group are separately and integrally analyzed. The estimation results of the efficiency indicators for various cases are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. First, security businesses exhibit economies of scale but also economies of scope with traditional banking activities, which implies that in-house integration of the banking and security businesses may not be a nonoptimal banking structure. Therefore, this result further implies that the transformation of Korea's banking system from the current, specialized system to the universal banking system will not impede the improvement of the banking industry's efficiency. Second, the lending businesses turn out to be subjected to diseconomies of scale, while exhibiting unclear evidence for economies of scope. In sum, it implies potential efficiency gain of the continued in-house integration of the lending activity. Third, the continued integration of the trust businesses seems to contribute to improving the efficiency of the banking businesses, since the trust businesses exhibit economies of scope. Fourth, deposit services and fee-based activities, such as foreign exchange and credit card businesses, exhibit economies of scale but constant returns to scope, which implies, the possibility of separating those businesses from other banking and trust activities. The recent trend of the credit card business being operated separately from other banking activities by an independent identity in Korea as well as in the global banking market seems to be consistent with this finding. Then, how can the possibility of separating deposit services from the remaining activities be interpreted? If one insists a strict definition of commercial banking that is confined to deposit and commercial lending activities, separating the deposit service will suggest a resolution or a disappearance of banking, itself. Recently, however, there has been a suggestion that separating banks' deposit and lending activities by allowing a depository institution which specialize in deposit taking and investing deposit fund only in the safest securities such as government securities to administer the deposit activity will alleviate the risk of a bank run. This method, in turn, will help improve the safety of the payment system (Robert E. Litan, What should Banks Do? Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1987). In this context, the possibility of separating the deposit activity will imply that a new type of depository institution will arise naturally without contradicting the efficiency of the banking businesses, as the size of the banking market grows in the future. Moreover, it is also interesting to see additional evidences confirming this statement that deposit taking and security business are cost complementarity but deposit taking and lending businesses are cost substitute (see Table 2 for cost complementarity relationship in Korea's banking industry). Finally, it has been observed that the Korea's banking industry is lacking in the characteristics of natural monopoly. Therefore, it may not be optimal to encourage the merger and acquisition in the banking industry only for the purpose of improving the efficiency.

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An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea (가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고-)

  • Bang, Sook;Han, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Chung-Ja;Ahn, Moon-Young;Lee, In-Sook;Kim, Eun-Shil;Kim, Chong-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.20 no.1 s.21
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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