• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment method

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지진위험도평가 방법을 이용한 내진성능관리 의사결정 (Decision Making of Seismic Performance Management Using Seismic Risk Assessment)

  • 김동주;최지혜;김병화
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2019
  • The strategy for the management of earthquakes is shifting from post recovery to prevention; therefore, seismic performance management requires quantitative predictions of damage and the establishment of strategies for initial responses to earthquakes. Currently, seismic performance evaluation for seismic management in Korea consists of two stages: preliminary evaluation and detailed evaluation. Also, the priority of seismic performance management is determined in accordance with the preliminary evaluation. As a deterministic method, preliminary evaluation quantifies the physical condition and socio-economic importance of a facility by various predetermined indices, and the priority is decided by the relative value of the indices; however, with the deterministic method it is difficult to consider any uncertainty related to the return-year, epicenter, and propagation of seismic energy. Also this method cannot support tasks such as quantitative socio-economic damage and the provision of data for initial responses to earthquakes. Moreover, indirect damage is often greater than direct damage; therefore, a method to quantify damage is needed to enhance accuracy. In this paper, a Seismic Risk Assessment is used to quantify the cost of damage of road facilities in Pohang city and to support decision making.

안전성 평가를 위한 철도시스템의 위험도 분석 방법 고찰 (A Study on the Risk Assessment Method in the Safety of Railway System)

  • 정의진;김양모
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집 전기기기 및 에너지변환시스템부문
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    • pp.270-272
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    • 2002
  • The safety of the present railway system has been established through a lot of experience from the railway accident. But nowaday scientific safety assessment methods are exactly required to improve the safety of railway system. In this study, we focused on the methodology of probabilistic risk assessment, which has been developed mainly in the field of nuclear power industry, and considered the process to adopt this method to railway system in order to establish a scientific and comprehensive way of safety assessment.

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지반공학적 재해 및 산사태 위험도 분석에 관한 연구 (International Research on Geotechnical Risk & Landslide Hazards)

  • 윤길림;윤여원;김홍연
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술발표회
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    • pp.444-455
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    • 2009
  • Great concerns on geotechnical risk & hazard assessment have been increased due to human and economic damage by natural disasters with recent global climate changes. In this paper, geotechnical problems in particular, landslides which is interested in European countries and North America, were mainly discussed. For these, 18 key topics on geotechnical risk and hazards which had been discussed at the LARAM 2008 workshop in Italy were analyzed after grouping by subjects. Main topic contents consisted of applications such as field measurement, early warning systems, uncertainty analysis of parameters using radar, optical data and statistical theory and so on. And the problems related to analysis of vulnerability and deformation due to earthquakes, investigation of gas zone using seismic reflection data in a landslide area, risk quantification and hazard assessment of landslide movements and multi-dimensional analysis for stability of complex slopes were attracted. Also, there were studies on risk matters of cultural heritage, the blockglide of clayey ground, simulations of debris flows based on GIS, quantification of the failure processes of rock slopes, a meshless method for 3D crack modelling, and finally risk assessment for cryological processes due to global warming.

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A Study on FSA Application to PRS for Safe Operation of Dynamic Positioning Vessel

  • Chae, Chong-Ju;Jun, Yun-Chul
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제41권5호
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2017
  • The Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology developed by the IMO, aimed at assessing the risk of vessels and recommending the method to control intolerable risks, thereby enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property, by using risk analysis and cost-benefit assessment. While the FSA has mostly been applied to merchant vessels, it has rarely been applied to a DP vessel, which is one of the special purpose vessels in the offshore industry. Furthermore, most of the FSA has been conducted so far by using the Fault Tree Analysis tool, even though there are many other risk analysis tools. This study carried out the FSA for safe operation of DP vessels by using the Bayesian network, under which conditional probability was examined. This study determined the frequency and severity of DP LOP incidents reported to the IMCA from 2001 to 2010, and obtained the Risk Index by applying the Bayesian network. Then, the Risk Control Options (RCOs) were identified through an expert brainstorming and DP vessel simulations. This study recommends duplication of PRS, regardless of the DP class and PRS type and DP system specific training. Finally, this study verified that the Bayesian network and DP simulator can also serve as an effective tool for FSA implementation.

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment of weir structures considering the earthquake hazard in the Korean Peninsula

  • Alam, Jahangir;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.421-427
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    • 2017
  • Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

Derivation of Ecological Protective Concentration using the Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessment applicable for Korean Water Environment: (I) Cadmium

  • Nam, Sun-Hwa;Lee, Woo-Mi;An, Youn-Joo
    • Toxicological Research
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2012
  • Probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) for deriving ecological protective concentration (EPC) was previously suggested in USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Netherland. This study suggested the EPC of cadmium (Cd) based on the PERA to be suitable to Korean aquatic ecosystem. First, we collected reliable ecotoxicity data from reliable data without restriction and reliable data with restrictions. Next, we sorted the ecotoxicity data based on the site-specific locations, exposure duration, and water hardness. To correct toxicity by the water hardness, EU's hardness corrected algorithm was used with slope factor 0.89 and a benchmark of water hardness 100. EPC was calculated according to statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation $method_{Acute\;to\;chronic\;ratio}$ ($SEM_{ACR}$), and assessment factor method (AFM). As a result, aquatic toxicity data of Cd were collected from 43 acute toxicity data (4 Actinopterygill, 29 Branchiopoda, 1 Polychaeta, 2 Bryozoa, 6 Chlorophyceae, 1 Chanophyceae) and 40 chronic toxicity data (2 Actinopterygill, 23 Branchiopoda, 9 Chlorophyceae, 6 Macrophytes). Because toxicity data of Cd belongs to 4 classes in taxonomical classification, acute and chronic EPC (11.07 ${\mu}g/l$ and 0.034 ${\mu}g/l$, respectively) was calculated according to SEM technique. These values were included in the range of international EPCs. This study would be useful to establish the ecological standard for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

자동차 기능안전성을 위한 온톨로지 기반의 위험원 분석 및 위험 평가 (An Ontology-Based Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment for automotive functional safety)

  • 노현경;이금석
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2015
  • 본 논문에서는 자동차 기능안전 표준인 ISO 26262에서 요구하는 위험원 분석 및 위험 평가에서 온톨로지와 추론 규칙을 적용하는 방법을 제안한다. 위험원 분석 및 위험 평가는 일반적으로 수작업으로 수행되어 많은 노력이 소요되고 오류가 발생하기 쉬우며 일관성과 정확성이 부족한 문제점이 있다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해서 본 논문에서는 위험원을 온톨로지로 표현하고, 평가를 위한 온톨로지 규칙을 정의하여 자동화하고 일관성 및 정확성 문제를 개선한다. 본 제안 방법을 검증하기 위해서 ESCL(electronic steering column lock) 시스템에 적용하였다. 온톨로지 규칙 적용 결과를 DL(Description Logics) Query를 실행하여 제대로 동작하는지 확인하였으며, 이를 통해 위험 평가 시에 발생할 수 있는 오류를 파악할 수 있었다.

위험도 개념을 적용한 교량 자산관리의 성능평가방법 연구 (A study on Risk-based Bridge Performance Evaluation Method for Asset Management)

  • 최현호;선종완;박경훈
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2013
  • 일반적인 사회기반시설물 자산관리 절차는 기존 자산의 명확한 정보획득, 서비스수준의 설정, 요구수준의 분석, 재정상태와 가용예산의 분석, 자산관리 계획의 준비, 수정된 자산의 정보 획득 순으로 구성될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 실제적인 위험도분석 기반의 개선된 교량 자산관리를 위하여 필요한 상태평가 및 성능측정, 성능척도의 설정, 파손형태 및 위험도 분석 등에 대한 방법론을 제시하였다. 보다 효율적인 교량 관리를 위하여 위험도 고려가 필요한 교량 기본현황정보 및 성능척도 항목을 설정하였고, 정량적 정성적 위험도를 고려한 성능평가방법을 제안하였다. 위험정도와 발생가능성을 고려한 위험도 매트릭스를 이용한 성능평가방법은 교량의 서비스수준을 보다 합리적으로 추정할 수 있다. 제안된 위험도분석 절차와 방법이 접목된 교량 서비스수준 평가방법을 이용하면 보다 합리적인 자산관리 의사결정이 가능하며, 향후 최적의 유지관리 의사결정을 위한 자산관리 체계구축 및 시스템 개발에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Bacillus thuringiensis 유래 Vip3Aa 단백질 순수분리 및 꿀벌 (Apis mellifera)에 대한 위해성평가 (Purification and risk assessment of Bacillus thuringiensis Vip3Aa protein against Apis mellifera)

  • 정영준;유수향;이중로
    • 환경생물
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.585-591
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 LMO 유전산물의 위해성평가를 위해 바실러스로부터 증폭된 Vip3Aa 유전자를 이용하여 대장균에서 단백질 순수분리 하였으며, MALDI-TOP 분석법을 통해 기존의 알려진 살충성 Vip3Aa 단백질과 동등한 단백질임을 증명하였다. 순수 분리한 Vip3Aa 단백질을 이용하여 꿀벌 과독성 급성섭식독성평가를 수행하였다. 그 결과 무처리군, Hepes buffer, Vip3Aa 단백질 처리군 모두 치사 및 일반 중독증상을 보이는 개체는 발견되지 않았다. 이 결과를 통해 Vip3Aa 단백질은 꿀벌에 위해성을 나타내지 않는다는 결론을 얻을 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과는 향후 국내 LMO 유전자 산물 위해성평가에 유용하게 활용될 것이라 사료된다.