• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment method

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Application of first-order reliability method in seismic loss assessment of structures with Endurance Time analysis

  • Basim, Mohammad Ch.;Estekanchi, Homayoon E.;Mahsuli, Mojtaba
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 2018
  • Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it possible to evaluate the seismic risk of complex systems. The probability distribution of losses due to the structural and non-structural damage as well as injuries and fatalities of a prototype structure are estimated using the proposed methodology. This methodology is an alternative to the prevalent risk analysis framework of the total probability theorem. Hence, the risk estimates of the proposed approach are compared with those from the total probability theorem as a benchmark. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement between the two methods while a significantly lower computational demand for the proposed approach.

Ammonium nitrate의 유해성과 작업환경 관리 (Hazards and Workplace Management of Ammonium nitrate)

  • 김현영;황양인;국원근
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is the work environment management method through risk assessment and investigation of the work place that deals with Ammonium nitrate, based on information in and outside the country. Methods: This study suggests method of work environment management through risk assessment and investigation of the work place that deals with Ammonium nitrate, and finds out cases of Ammonium nitrate causing hazard, danger and health risk, based on literature investigation. Results: Rats exposed repeatedly to $LD_{50}$ 2,217 mg/kg(rat), $LC_{50}$ 88.8 mg/L(rat, skin) which cause high level of skin irritation, reported 1 $mg/m^3$ of NOAEL, while LOAEL was less than 100 mg/kg for the rats orally administered with the $LD_{50}$ 2,217 mg/kg(rat), $LC_{50}$ 88.8 mg/L(rat, skin), for 13 weeks. Domestically 31,640 ton/y of ammonium nitrate has been used in 22 workplace and the result of workplace assessment was 0.0171-0.9983 $mg/m^3$. ADD was 8.77-59.63 ${\mu}g/kg-day$ according to the exposure scenario. In other words the result of the risk assessment goes beyond the 'standard 1'. Conclusions: Ammonium nitrate creates a high level of irritation and toxicity when coming in breathe it or contact with skin, and is classified as category3 of GHS and specific target organ toxicant (irritating respiratory system). Exposure level at work places needs to be maintained under $1mg/m^3$, to prevent workers from being damaged.

도시지역 홍수재해에 대한 지역안전도 평가모형 (Urban Flood Regional Safety Assesment Model)

  • 이창희;이석민;신상영;여창건;김윤종
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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    • pp.376-379
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    • 2007
  • In recent years, the natural damage associated with flood disaster has been dramatically increased. However, there is no rational method which reflects urban characteristics to estimate the regional safety assessment for flood disaster. The purpose of this study is to develop the regional safety assesment model for urban flood. Flood risk and reduction assesment were estimated by using the linear sum of the Z score of the assessment factors and the weight value of each factor from the expert survey data. And then the regional safety assessment was estimated by subtracting reduction factor value from risk factor value. GIS tool was used to estimate the factor assesment and integrated regional safety. This study can be used to determine the priority of flood protection project, execute the flood insurance and establish the urban plans and the flood mitigate plan.

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공식안전평가시스템에 의한 선박 충돌사고 위험성 평가에 관한 연구( I ) (Risk Assessment of the Ship′s Collision using Formal Safety Assessment Methodology)

  • 양원재;전승환;금종수
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2001
  • The prevention of marine accidents has been a major topic in marine society and various policies and countermeasures has been developed, applied to the industries. Formal Safety Assessment is a structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property, by using risk and cost-benefit assessments. In addition, it provides a means of being proactive, enabling potential hazards to be considered before a serious accident occurs. In this paper, we has been screening and ranking of hazards using fuzzy structural modeling method and quantitative risk assessment for the ship's collision in the last 10 years marine accidents.

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FMECA와 HAZOP을 활용한 가드레일 코팅차량의 안전성 향상 (Safety Improvements of Guardrail Coating Vehicle Using FMECA and HAZOP)

  • 정의필;박현철;안병철;박영수;한덕수;전현준
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2023
  • This study uses FMECA (Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis) and HAZOP (Hazard and Operability), which are widely applied in industrial areas, among risk assessment methods, and applies them to the same system. While FMECA evaluates system failure conditions and analyzes risks, HAZOP evaluates the system comprehensively by evaluating operational risks that may occur based on system parameters. According to data released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, as of December 2021, the length of roads in Korea is 113,405 km, and the repair of guardrails that have expired must be fixed urgently in terms of traffic safety. Replacing all of these guardrails with new ones requires a very large cost, but if the guardrails are repaired with a vehicle equipped with the G-Save method, carbon emissions are reduced, the repair period is shortened, and great economic benefits can be obtained. However, risk assessment for guardrail coating vehicles has not been done so far. Focusing on this point, this study aims to evaluate the risk of these coating vehicles and describe the results. Finally, we found that the Risk Priority Numbers(RPN) in the FMECA risk assessment were greatly reduced, and 6 risk factors from HAZOP risk assessment and actions were taken.

철강 제조업의 플랜트 공사 중 유해.위험 저감 방안 (A Study on Reduction of Hazard Conditions on Plant Work of Steel Industry)

  • 서성화;원종일;우흥식
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2011
  • The hazard conditions on plant works of the steel industry have been investigated to efficiently prevent from industrial accidents. The plant works are eventually carried out by workers of smaller service companies where the safety management systems are not well established, on behalf of the main steel company. Based on the preliminary risk assessment on the plant working and open literature reviews, the safety management systems, which can be applied to the plant workplace of each process, are studied and then the step-by-step 4M check-list method is established. Accordingly, the risk assessment technique using 4M checklist for the plant workplace is proposed. In addition, a standardized flow-chart for safety management of plant work is introduced. These risk assessment technique and flow-chart can definitely contribute to the reduction of industrial accidents, considering the risk characterization and the unsafe conditions in small and medium-sized plant workplace, as effective safety management tools and safety guide line.

욕창발생위험사정도구의 타당도 비교 (A Comparative Study on the Predictive Validity among Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Scales)

  • 이영희;정인숙;전성숙
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.162-169
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: This study was to compare the predictive validity of Norton Scale(1962), Cubbin & Jackson Scale(1991), and Song & Choi Scale(1991). Method: Data were collected three times per week from 48~72hours after admission based on the four pressure sore risk assessment scales and a skin assessment tool for pressure sore on 112 intensive care unit(ICU) patients in a educational hospital Ulsan during Dec, 11, 2000 to Feb, 10, 2001. Four indices of validity and area under the curve(AUC) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) were calculated. Result: Based on the cut off point presented by the developer, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value were as follows : Norton Scale : 97%, 18%, 35%, 93% respectively; Cubbin & Jackson Scale : 89%, 61%, 51%, 92%, respectively; and Song & Choi Scale : 100%, 18%, 36%, 100% respectively. Area under the curves(AUC) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) were Norton Scale .737, Cubbin & Jackson Scale .826, Song & Choi Scale .683. Conclusion: The Cubbin & Jackson Scale was found to be the most valid pressure sore risk assessment tool. Further studies on patients with chronic conditions may be helpful to validate this finding.

건설현장의 위험성평가 효율적 활용을 위한 운영 시스템 구축사례 분석 - H 건설사 사례중심으로 (Analysis of Operation System Establishment Cases for Efficient use of Risk Assessment at Construction Sites - H Focusing on Construction Company Cases)

  • 이재붕
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.828-838
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    • 2022
  • 연구목적: 위험성평가의 전산시스템 구축을 통해 건설현장에서 위험성평가 대상 공종 근로자가 쉽게 작성할 수 있고 효율적 위험성평가 활동으로 재해 저감을 기대할 수 있는지의 사례 분석을 목적으로 한다. 연구방법: 작업공종 분류만으로 해당작업의 위험요인과 안전대책을 제공받아 위험추정과 대책수립을 할 수 있으며, 해당작업의 재해사례 제시로 실질적 재해예방 활동이 가능하도록 시스템을 구축하였다. 연구결과: H건설사의 ERP내 위험성평가 전산시스템 구축 이후 현장적용에 따른 년간 환산재해율 변화분석을 통해 국내 건설업의 환산재해율이 증가하는 반면 H건설사의 환산재해율은 감소하였음을 확인하였다. 결론: 위험성평가 전산시스템화를 통해 현장작업 대상 근로자가 위험성평가에 쉽게 접근할 수 있고 해당공정의 위험요인 평가 및 위험예방 대책의 수립이 가능하게 되어, 평가 기간 동안 실제 재해율 감소에 영향이 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

Fall Risk Assessments Based on Postural and Dynamic Stability Using Inertial Measurement Unit

  • Liu, Jian;Zhang, Xiaoyue;Lockhart, Thurmon E.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Slip and fall accidents in the workplace are one of the top causes of work related fatalities and injuries. Previous studies have indicated that fall risk was related to postural and dynamic stability. However, the usage of this theoretical relationship was limited by laboratory based measuring instruments. The current study proposed a new method for stability assessment by use of inertial measurement units (IMUs). Methods: Accelerations at different body parts were recorded by the IMUs. Postural and local dynamic stability was assessed from these measures and compared with that computed from the traditional method. Results: The results demonstrated: 1) significant differences between fall prone and healthy groups in IMU assessed dynamic stability; and 2) better power of discrimination with multi stability index assessed by IMUs. Conclusion: The findings can be utilized in the design of a portable screening or monitoring tool for fall risk assessment in various industrial settings.

Risk Assessment of a High-Speed Railway Bridge System Based on an Improved Response Surface Method

  • Cho, Tae-Jun;Moon, Jae-Woo;Kim, Jong-Tae
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2008년도 정기 학술대회
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    • pp.114-119
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    • 2008
  • A refined three-dimensional finite element interaction model between the high-speed train and railway bride deck has been developed in the present study. Analytical predictions of vertical deflections for a railway bridge are compared with in-situ test results and a good agreement is achieved. Then, input variables employed in the analytical comparisons are selected as random variables for the limit state functions. followed by risk assessment. For this purpose, a linear adaptive weighted response surface method has been developed and applied. A typical railway bridge has been selected and the limit state functions are employed from UIC and Korean specifications in the comparative studies. The results reveal that Korean specifications give significantly risky reliability indices in comparison with UIC specifications. It is thus encouraged from the above that the present linear adaptive weighted response surface method can be an alternative for the fast estimation of nonlinear structural systems.

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