• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.69 no.3
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.81-94
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• 2003

The British railway safety research group has developed a risk assessment model for the railway infrastructure and major railway accidents. The major hazardous factors of the railway infrastructure were identified and classified in the model. The frequency rates of critical top events were predicted by the fault tree analysis method using failure data of the railway system components and ratings of railway maintenance experts, The consequences of critical top events were predicted by the event tree analysis method. They classified the Joss of accident due to railway system into personal. commercial and environmental damages. They also classified 110 hazardous event due to railway system into three categories. train accident. movement accident and non-movement accident. The risk assessment model of the British railway system has been designed to take full account of both the high frequency low consequence type events (events occurring routinely for which there is significant quantity of recorded data) and the low frequency high consequence events (events occurring rarely for which there is little recorded data). The results for each hazardous event were presented in terms of the frequency of occurrence (number of events/year) and the risk (number of equivalent fatalities per year).

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.8
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• pp.619-624
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• 2013

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.41-53
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• 2010

An existing risk diagnosing methodology (RDM) diagnoses corporate risk for product-innovation projects. However, it cannot evaluate and compare the risk levels of multiple alternatives in the product development stage. This paper proposes a modified risk diagnosis method to fill the gap of risk evaluation in selections of innovative product alternatives and the application of the method will be also illustrated by a case problem on alternative selections in electrical dimmer designs. With RDM as the foundation, a modified RDM (MRDM) is proposed to deal with the problem of selecting innovative project alternatives during the early stages of product development. The Bayesian network; a probabilistic graphical model, is adopted to support the risk pre-assessment stage in the MRDM. The MRDM is proposed by incorporating the risk pre-assessment stage into the foundation. By evaluating the engineering design risks in two electrical dimmer switches, an application of the MRDM in product innovation development is successfully exemplified. This paper strengthens the existing methodology for RDM in innovative product development projects to accommodate innovative alternatives. It is advantageous for companies to identify and measure the risks associated in product development so as to plan for appropriate risk mitigation strategies.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.550-557
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• 2017

Owing to the established international standards for reliability and safety management of railways and the third-part conformity assessment implementation, quantitative risk assessment focusing on communication system related to railway safety has being implemented. The quantitative risk assessment starts from the establishment of quantitative RAMS requirements; the risk has to be maintained under an acceptable safety level. This paper introduces the risk assessment process based on international standards ; risk assessment was conducted using failure data for railway facilities for about 5.5 years. In addition, based on the results, a scientific risk management method for railway facilities is suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.28 no.7
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• pp.1111-1119
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• 2022

Tourism projects through islands in the waters of Sinan-gun became active, and as a result, a total of 13 marine bridges connecting islands were completed. However, the marine bridge constructed in the fairway is dangerous for traffic. Particularly, in the case of the marine bridge connecting two islands, the width of the fairway is extremely narrow, therefore the risk is higher. In this study, we evaluated the risk of collision between marine bridge piers and ships using the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP), a risk assessment model for port waterways, based on a maritime traffic survey on the coastal bridge in Sinan-gun. The results, indicated that No.1 Sinan bridge had the highest probability of collision and most of the transit ships were coastal passenger ships. In addition, No.1 Sinan bridge was the place where the most collision accidents occurred among the marine bridge piers in the target sea, and the cause this study was analyzed. An analysis of the satellite images of the sea environment of No.1 Sinan bridge using an image processing method, confirmed that obstacles that could not be seen in the chart existed nearby the bridge. As a result, traffic was observed to be concentrated in one direction, unlike two-way traffic, which is a method of inducing traffic of bridges to avoid obstacles. The risk cause analysis method using the image processing technique of this study is expected to be used as a basic research method for analyzing the risk factors of island bridge in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.110 no.2
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• pp.210-216
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• 2021

Musculoskeletal disorders affect workers' safety in most industries, and forest operations are classified as a musculoskeletal burden according to the Occupational Safety and Health Act in South Korea. In particular, felling and delimbing operations are mainly conducted by manpower, and then, it is necessary to evaluate ergonomic risk assessment for safety of felling and delimbing workers. Three ergonomic risk assessment methods, such as Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS), Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA), and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA), are available for assessing exposure to risk factors associated with timber harvesting operations. Here, three ergonomic risk assessment methods were applied to examine ergonomic risk assessments in chainsaw felling and delimbing operations. Additionally, exposure to risk factors in each method was analyzed to propose an optimal working posture in felling and delimbing operations. The risk levels of these operations were evaluated to be highest in the RULA method, followed by the OWAS and REBA methods, and most of the exposed working postures were examined with a low-risk level of two and three without requiring any immediate working posture changes. However, two significant working postures, including the bending posture of the waist and leg in felling operation and standing posture on the fallen trees in delimbing operation, were assessed as the high-risk level and needed immediate working posture changes. Low-risk work levels were examined in the squatting posture for felling operation and the straightened posture of the waist and leg for delimbing operation. Moreover, the slope in felling operation and the tree height in delimbing operation significantly affected risk level assessment of working posture. Therefore, our study supports that felling and delimbing workers must operate with low-risk working postures for safety.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.73-82
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• 2013

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.77 no.1
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• pp.19-35
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• 2021

Existing methods to estimate the probability of seismic pounding occurrence of adjacent buildings do not account for nonlinear behavior or only apply to simple lumped mass systems. The present study proposes an efficient method based on subset simulation for fragility and risk assessment of seismic pounding occurrence between nonlinear adjacent buildings neglecting pounding effects with application to finite element models. The proposed method is first applied to adjacent buildings modeled as elastoplastic systems with substantially different dynamic properties for different structural parameters. Seismic pounding fragility and risk of adjacent frame structures with different floor levels is then assessed, paying special attention to modeling the non-linear material behavior in finite element models. Difference in natural periods and impact location are identified to affect the pounding fragility simultaneously. The reliability levels of the minimum code-specified separation distances are also determined. In addition, the incremental dynamic analysis method is extended to assess seismic pounding fragility of the adjacent frame structures, resulting in higher fragility estimates for separation distances larger than the minimum code-specified ones in comparison with the proposed method.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.185-194
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• 2019

The probabilistic tsunami risk assessment of large coastal areas is challenging because the inland propagation of a tsunami wave requires an accurate numerical model that takes into account the interaction between the ground, the infrastructures, and the wave itself. Classic mesh-based methods face many challenges in the propagation of a tsunami wave inland due to their ever-moving boundary conditions. In alternative, mesh-less based methods can be used, but they require too much computational power in the far-field. This study proposes a hybrid approach. A mesh-based method propagates the tsunami wave from the far-field to the near-field, where the influence of the sea floor is negligible, and a mesh-less based method, smooth particle hydrodynamic, propagates the wave onto the coast and inland, and takes into account the wave structure interaction. Nowadays, this can be done because the advent of general purpose GPUs made mesh-less methods computationally affordable. The method is used to simulate the inland propagation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami off the coast of Indonesia.