• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment

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확률모델 불확실성을 고려한 구조물의 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 - 제1편: 설계 방법 (Reliability-based Structural Design Optimization Considering Probability Model Uncertainties - Part 1: Design Method)

  • 옥승용;박원석
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.148-157
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    • 2012
  • Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problem is usually formulated as an optimization problem to minimize an objective function subjected to probabilistic constraint functions which may include deterministic design variables as well as random variables. The challenging task is that, because the probability models of the random variables are often assumed based on limited data, there exists a possibility of selecting inappropriate distribution models and/or model parameters for the random variables, which can often lead to disastrous consequences. In order to select the most appropriate distribution model from the limited observation data as well as model parameters, this study takes into account a set of possible candidate models for the random variables. The suitability of each model is then investigated by employing performance and risk functions. In this regard, this study enables structural design optimization and fitness assessment of the distribution models of the random variables at the same time. As the first paper of a two-part series, this paper describes a new design method considering probability model uncertainties. The robust performance of the proposed method is presented in Part 2. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, an example of ten-bar truss structure is considered. The numerical results show that the proposed method can provide the optimal design variables while guaranteeing the most desirable distribution models for the random variables even in case the limited data are only available.

격납건물종합누설률시험 주기연장을 위한 웹기반 소외결말분석 프로그램 개발 및 적용 (Development of Web-based Off-site Consequence Analysis Program and its Application for ILRT Extension)

  • 나장환;황석원;오지용
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.219-223
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    • 2012
  • For an off-site consequence analysis at nuclear power plant, MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System(MACCS) II code is widely used as a software tool. In this study, the algorithm of web-based off-site consequence analysis program(OSCAP) using the MACCS II code was developed for an Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) interval extension and Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA), and verification and validation(V&V) of the program was performed. The main input data for the MACCS II code are meteorological, population distribution and source term information. However, it requires lots of time and efforts to generate the main input data for an off-site consequence analysis using the MACCS II code. For example, the meteorological data are collected from each nuclear power site in real time, but the formats of the raw data collected are different from each site. To reduce the efforts and time for risk assessments, the web-based OSCAP has an automatic processing module which converts the format of the raw data collected from each site to the input data format of the MACCS II code. The program also provides an automatic function of converting the latest population data from Statistics Korea, the National Statistical Office, to the population distribution input data format of the MACCS II code. For the source term data, the program includes the release fraction of each source term category resulting from modular accident analysis program(MAAP) code analysis and the core inventory data from ORIGEN. These analysis results of each plant in Korea are stored in a database module of the web-based OSCAP, so the user can select the defaulted source term data of each plant without handling source term input data.

가용 침수 자료를 활용한 도심지 침수 해석 모형의 평가 절차 수립 및 표준화 (Establishment and Standardization of Evaluation Procedure for Urban Flooding Analysis Model Using Available Inundation Data)

  • 신은택;장동민;박성원;엄태수;송창근
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the frequency of typhoon and torrential rain due to climate change is increasing. In addition, the upsurge in the complexity of urban sewer network and impervious surfaces area aggravates the inland flooding damage. In response to these worsening situations, the central and local governments are conducting R&D tasks related to predict and mitigate the flood risk. Researches on the analysis of inundation in urban areas have been implemented through various ways, and the common features were to evaluate the accuracy and justification of the model by comparing the model results with the actual inundation data. However, the evaluation procesure using available urban flooding data are not consistent, and if there are no quantitative urban inundation data, verification has to be performed by using press releases, public complaints, or photos of inundation occurring through 'CCTV'. Because theses materials are not quantitative, there is a problem of low reliability. Therefore, this study intends to develop a comparative analysis procedure on the quantitative degree and applicability of the verifiable inundation data, and a systematic framework for the performance assessment of urban flood analysis model was proposed. This would contribute to the standardization of the evaluation and verification procedure for urban flooding modelling.

Effects of Insamsansa-eum (Renshenshanzha-yin) on Hypercholesterolemia and Analysis of Its Effects according to the Pattern Identification

  • Park Seong-Uk;Jung Woo-Sang;Moon Sang-Kwan;Cho Ki-Ho;Kim Young-Suk;Bae Hyung-Sup;Ko Chang-Nam
    • 대한한의학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2006
  • Backgrounds : Hyperlipidemia is a major cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Lowering serum cholesterol levels could reduce the risk of CVD. Insamsansa-eum (Renshenshanzha-yin, ISE), composed of Ginseng Radix and Crataegii Fructus, is a new medicine developed to treat hyperlipidemia and CVD. Objectives : In this study, we intended to explore the clinical effects of ISE on patients with hypercholesterolemia, and moreover we also compared its effects according to the pattern identification. Methods : Subjects were administered ISE with the dose of 600 mg three times a day for 4 weeks. Patterns of subjects were identified with diagnostic scoring system for Yin-Yang and the condition of Excess-Deficiency before treatment. Serum lipids were measured at baseline and after 4 weeks of medication. Results : ISE lowered total cholesterol(TC), triglyceride(TG), total lipid(TL), phospholipid(PL) and low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL) significantly. Compared with the data of our previous study, it was less effective than Atorvastatin but showed equal lipids-lowering effect to Chunghyul-dan (Qingxue-dan, CHD). In Yang pattern group, ISE was less effective in lowering TG and LDL than it was in not-Yang-not-Yinpattern group. On safety assessment, there was no adverse effect, hepatic or renal toxicity. Conclusions : We suggest that ISE is a safe and useful herbal medicine for hypercholesterolemia, and moreover it could be more useful when it is used for patients with not Yang pattern.

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Investigation of Possible Horizontal Gene Transfer from the Leaf Tissue of Transgenic Potato to Soil Bacteria

  • KIM YOUNG TAE;KIM SUNG EUN;PARK KI DUK;KANG TAE HOON;LEE YUN MI;LEE SANG HAN;MOON JAE SUN;KIM SUNG UK
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.1130-1134
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    • 2005
  • To monitor the possibility of horizontal gene transfer between transgenic potato and bacteria in the environment, the gene flow from glufosinate-tolerant potato to bacteria in soils was investigated. The soil samples treated with the leaf tissue of either glufosinate-tolerant or glufosinate-sensitive potato were subjected to PCR and Southern hybridization to determine possible occurrence of glufosinate-resistant soil bacteria and to detect the bar (phosphinothricin acetyltransferase) gene, conferring tolerance to glufosinate. The bar gene was not detected from genomic DNAs extracted at different time intervals from the soil samples, which had been treated with the leaf tissue of either transgenic or non-transgenic potato for 2 to 8 weeks. In addition, the level of glufosinate-resistant bacteria isolated from the soil samples treated with the leaf tissue of transgenic potato was similar to that of the samples treated with non-transgenic potato after 4 months of incubation at $25^{\circ}C$. The bar gene was not detected in the genomic DNAs extracted from colonies growing on the plate containing glufosinate, indicating that the bacteria could acquire the resistant phenotype to glufosinate by another mechanism without the uptake of the bar gene from glufosinate-tolerant potato.

Seismic vulnerability of old confined masonry buildings in Osijek, Croatia

  • Hadzima-Nyarko, Marijana;Pavica, Gordana;Lesic, Marija
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.629-648
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    • 2016
  • This paper deals with 111 buildings built between 1962 and 1987, from various parts of the city of Osijek, for which, through the collection of documentation, a database is created. The aim of this paper is to provide the first steps in assessing seismic risk in Osijek applying method based on vulnerability index. This index uses collected information of parameters of the building: the structural system, the construction year, plan, the height, i.e., the number of stories, the type of foundation, the structural and non-structural elements, the type and the quality of main construction material, the position in the block and built-up area. According to this method defining five damage states, the action is expressed in terms of the macroseismic intensity and the seismic quality of the buildings by means of a vulnerability index. The value of the vulnerability index can be changed depending on the structural systems, quality of construction, etc., by introducing behavior and regional modifiers based on expert judgments. Since there is no available data of damaged buildings under earthquake loading in our country, we will propose behavior modifiers based on values suggested by earlier works and on judgment based on available project documentation of the considered buildings. Depending on the proposed modifiers, the seismic vulnerability of existing buildings in the city of Osijek will be assessed. The resulting vulnerability of the considered residential buildings provides necessary insight for emergency planning and for identification of critical objects vulnerable to seismic loading.

A simplified method for estimating the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete frames

  • Jiang, Rui;Jiang, Liqiang;Hu, Yi;Ye, Jihong;Zhou, Lingyu
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제74권6호
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    • pp.821-832
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    • 2020
  • The fundamental period is an important parameter for seismic design and seismic risk assessment of building structures. In this paper, a simplified theoretical method to predict the fundamental period of masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame is developed based on the basic theory of engineering mechanics. The different configurations of the RC frame as well as masonry walls were taken into account in the developed method. The fundamental period of the infilled structure is calculated according to the integration of the lateral stiffness of the RC frame and masonry walls along the height. A correction coefficient is considered to control the error for the period estimation, and it is determined according to the multiple linear regression analysis. The corrected formula is verified by shaking table tests on two masonry infilled RC frame models, and the errors between the estimated and test period are 2.3% and 23.2%. Finally, a probability-based method is proposed for the corrected formula, and it allows the structural engineers to select an appropriate fundamental period with a certain safety redundancy. The proposed method can be quickly and flexibly used for prediction, and it can be hand-calculated and easily understood. Thus it would be a good choice in determining the fundamental period of RC frames infilled with masonry wall structures in engineering practice instead of the existing methods.

국내 우울증 평가도구 타당화 연구의 체계적 고찰-진단적 타당성을 중점으로 : 한국형 우울 선별 도구 개발을 위한 예비 연구 (A Systematic Review of Validation Studies on Depression Rating Scales in Korea, with a Focus on Diagnostic Validity Information : Preliminary Study for Development of Korean Screening Tool for Depression)

  • 정수연;김신향;박기호;제갈은주;이원혜;최윤영;이승환;최기홍
    • 대한불안의학회지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2017
  • Reliable and valid diagnostic screening tools in the primary care setting enable accurate estimation of depression in individuals at risk or in need of treatment, and provide patients with an opportunity to receive optimal treatments. Although there have been extensive studies on screening tools for depression used in domestic mental health settings, there is little consideration and lack of a thorough review of the diagnostic validity of screening tools. In the current review, we selected 13 representative screening tools for depression which were evaluated in a total of 19 validation studies conducted in Korea. We summarized DSM-5 target domains, diagnostic indices, sensitivity, specificity, cut-off scores, and diagnostic validity information for each tool. Finally, the depression measurement expert group was constituted to evaluate the current status of screening tools for depression, and their recommendations for a new screening tool were summarized. This study was conducted as part of the Mental Health Technology Development project to develop the Korean screening tool for depression (K-DEP).

인공습지 오수처리수를 이용한 벼재배 실험 (Paddy Rice Culture Experiment Using Treated Sewage Effluent From Constructed Wetland)

  • 윤춘경;함종화;우선호;김민희
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제43권2호
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2001
  • A pilot study was performed at the experimental field of Konkuk University in Seoul, to examine the feasibility of the constructed wetland system for sewage and the effect of treated sewage irrigation on the paddy rice culture and its soil characteristics. The constructed wetland performed well, in that effluent concentrations of pollutants were significantly lower than concentrations of the influent. Median removal efficiencies of BOD$_{5}$ was about 78% and slightly lower during winter. Removal efficiencies form TN and TP were approximately 48 and 21%, respectively, and relatively less effective than that of BOD$_{5}$. Irrigation of treated sewage to paddy rice culture did not affect adversely in both growth and yield of rice. Instead, plots of treated sewage irrigation showed up to 50% more yield in average than the control plot. It implies that treated sewage irrigation might be beneficial to rice culture rather than detrimental as long as it is treated adequately and used properly. Soil was sampled and analyzed before transplanting and after harvesting. pH was slightly increased due to irrigation water, but it may not be concerned as long as the treated sewage is within the normal range. EC was increased in first year but decreased in second year, therefore salts accumulation in the soil could be less concerned. OM and CES was slightly increased, which might be beneficial on growing plants. TN did not show apparent pattern. Available phosphorus was decreased after rice culture, but the quantity of phosphorus(TP-available phosphorus) was rather increased which implies that excessive phosphorus supply may result in phosphorus accumulation in the soil. Overall, the constructed wetland was thought to be an effective sewage treatment alternative, and treated sewage could be reused as a supplemental source of irrigation water for paddy rice culture without causing adverse effect as long as it is treated adequately and used properly. For full-scale application, further investigation should be followed on environmental risk assessment, tolerable water quality, and fraction of supplemental irrigation.ion.

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LC/MS/MS를 이용한 대기 중 PFOA 및 PFOS의 오염 수준 조사 (Investigation of pollution level for PFOA and PFOS in ambient air using LC/MS/MS)

  • 김경수;신박민;연진모;가재정;김용준;조천래
    • 분석과학
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서 청주지역 대기 중 PFOA 및 PFOS의 오염수준을 조사하기 위해 공단, 주거/상업 및 농촌지역에서 각각 가스상 및 입자상 시료를 채취하였다. 또한 계절적 변화를 조사하기 위해 겨울철, 봄철 및 여름철에 각각 채취하였다. 대기 중 PFOA 및 PFOS의 농도는 각각 불검출~8.02 pg/$m^3$ (평균 2.33 pg/$m^3$)과 1.68~6.94 pg/$m^3$ (평균 3.12 pg/$m^3$)으로 검출되었다. 이들 농도는 외국과 유사하거나 낮은 수준을 보였다.