• Title/Summary/Keyword: residual prediction

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해양사고 예보 시스템 개발 (II): 해양사고 예측 모델 (Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System (II): Marine Casualty Prediction Model)

  • 임정빈;공길영;구자영;김창경
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2003년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집
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    • pp.60-65
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    • 2003
  • 이 논문에서는 해양사고 예보 시스템 (MCFS)의 주요 부분 중 하나인 해양사고 예측 모델 개발에 관해서 기술했다. 셀분할 선형 파라미터 모델(CD-LIP)을 개발하여 Baltic 모델과 희귀 분산분석기법으로 비교하였다. 그 결과, CD-LIP 모델이 Baltic 모델과 비교하여 잔차가 작았으며, 연구대상지역의 해양사고 수량화 D/B에 최적 성능을 나타냈다.

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가상행성 섭동력을 고려한 긴 주기 GPS 위성궤도예측기법 (Long-Term GPS Satellite Orbit Prediction Scheme with Virtual Planet Perturbation)

  • 유승수;이정혁;한진희;지규인;김선용
    • 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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    • 제18권11호
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    • pp.989-996
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze GPS (Global Positioning System) satellite orbital mechanics, and then to propose a novel long-term GPS satellite orbit prediction scheme including virtual planet perturbation. The GPS orbital information is a necessary prerequisite to pinpointing the location of a GPS receiver. When a GPS receiver has been shut down for a long time, however, the time needed to fix it before its reuse is too long due to the long-standing GPS orbital information. To overcome this problem, the GPS orbital mechanics was studied, such as Newton's equation of motion for the GPS satellite, including the non-spherical Earth effect, the luni-solar attraction, and residual perturbations. The residual perturbations are modeled as a virtual planet using the least-square algorithm for a moment. Through the modeling of the virtual planet with the aforementioned orbital mechanics, a novel GPS orbit prediction scheme is proposed. The numerical results showed that the prediction error was dramatically reduced after the inclusion of virtual planet perturbation.

평 블록 구조의 용접변형 예측 및 제어 (Prediction and Control of Welding Deformation for Panel Block Structure)

  • 김상일
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.95-99
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    • 2008
  • The block assembly of ship consists of a certain type of heat processes such as cutting, bending welding residual stress relaxation and fairing. The residual deformation due to welding is inevitable at each assembly stage. The geometric inaccuracy caused by the welding deformation tends to preclude the introduction of automation and mechanization and needs the additional man-hours for the adjusting work at the following assembly stage. To overcome this problem, a distortion control method should be applied. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop an accurate prediction method which can explicitly account for the influence of various factors on the welding deformation. The validity of the prediction method must be also clarified through experiments. This paper proposes a simplified analysis method to predict the welding deformation of panel block structure. For this purpose, a simple prediction model for fillet welding deformations has been derived based on numerical and experimental results through the regression analysis. On the basis of these results, the simplified analysis method has been applied to some examples to show its validity.

Development of the Korea Ocean Prediction System

  • Suk, Moon-Sik;Chang, Kyung-Il;Nam, Soo-Yong;Park, Sung-Hyea
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.181-188
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    • 2001
  • We describe here the Korea ocean prediction system that closely resembles operational numerical weather prediction systems. This prediction system will be served for real-time forecasts. The core of the system is a three-dimensional primitive equation numerical circulation model, based on ${\sigma}$-coordinate. Remotely sensed multi-channel sea surface temperature (MCSST) is imposed at the surface. Residual subsurface temperature is assimilated through the relationship between vertical temperature structure function and residual of sea surface height (RSSH) using an optimal interpolation scheme. A unified grid system, named as [K-E-Y], that covers the entire seas around Korea is used. We present and compare hindcasting results during 1990-1999 from a model forced by MCSST without incorporating RSSH data assimilation and the one with both MCSST and RSSH assimilated. The data assimilation is applied only in the East Sea, hence the comparison focuses principally on the mesoscale features prevalent in the East Sea. It is shown that the model with the data assimilation exhibits considerable skill in simulating both the permanent and transient mesoscale features in the East Sea.

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용접변형의 고정도 예측을 위한 지배인자의 정당성 검증 (Verification of Validity of Governing Factors in High Accurate Prediction of Welding Distortion)

  • 이재익;장경호;김유철
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2013
  • The legitimacy of dominating factor in the high accuracy prediction of welding distortion was investigated for butt welding and fillet welding. When out-of-plane distortion was measured by the experiment objecting to butt welding, if tack welding was easily performed, the position of a neutral axis was variously changed by the irregularity. Then, there have been a case that out-of-plane distortion was generated in the unexpected direction. This case should be especially noted. New model for the experiment was proposed so as to solve this problem. As it was elucidated by the case of fillet welding, it was verified that the analysis should be carried out with satisfying the yield condition (especially at high temperature above 700 degree Celsius) and with closely simulating the penetration shape (heat input in weld metal) in order to solve the proposition that is the high accuracy prediction of welding distortion. It was confirmed that residual stress is highly predicted because welding distortion is highly predicted, too.

대면적 UV 임프린팅 공정에서 잔류층 두께 예측 (Prediction of Residual Layer Thickness of Large-area UV Imprinting Process)

  • 김국원
    • 반도체디스플레이기술학회지
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.79-84
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    • 2013
  • Nanoimprint lithography (NIL) is the next generation photolithography process in which the photoresist is dispensed onto the substrate in its liquid form and then imprinted and cured into a desired pattern instead of using traditional optical system. There have been considerable attentions on NIL due to its potential abilities that enable cost-effective and high-throughput nanofabrication to the display device and semiconductor industry. Although one of the current major research trends of NIL is large-area patterning, the technical difficulties to keep the uniformity of the residual layer become severer as the imprinting area increases more and more. In this paper, with the rolling type imprinting process, a mold, placed upon the $2^{nd}$ generation TFT-LCD glass sized substrate($370{\times}470mm^2$), is rolled by a rubber roller to achieve a uniform residual layer. The prediction of residual layer thickness of the photoresist by rolling of the rubber roller is crucial to design the rolling type imprinting process, determine the rubber roller operation conditions-mpressing force & feeding speed, operate smoothly the following etching process, and so forth. First, using the elasticity theory of contact problem and the empirical equation of rubber hardness, the contact length between rubber roller and mold is calculated with consideration of the shape and hardness of rubber roller and the pressing force to rubber roller. Next, using the squeeze flow theory to photoresist flow, the residual layer thickness of the photoresist is calculated with information of the viscosity and initial layer thickness of photoresist, the shape of mold pattern, feeding speed of rubber roller, and the contact length between rubber roller and mold previously calculated. Last, the effects of rubber roller operation conditions, impressing force & feeding speed, on the residual layer thickness are analyzed with consideration of the shape and hardness of rubber roller.

유리의 잔류응력 예측 및 감소화 방안 연구(I): 순간동결모델에 의한 유리의 잔류응력 해석 (A Study on the Prediction and Reduction of Residual Stress in Glass (I): Analysis of Residual Stress in Glass by Instant Freezing Model)

  • 이재춘;백태현
    • 한국세라믹학회지
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    • 제31권8호
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    • pp.902-910
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    • 1994
  • Residual stress measurements were made for cylindrical glass rods to compare experimental results with the calculated values obtained by Instant Freezing Model. According to the photoelastic measurements, the stress ratio of surface compression and center tension was increased from 1.4 to 2.0 as the heat-treatment temperature was lowered, the fictitious forzen temperature was found to be closer to the heat-treatment temperature and the fictitious coefficient was increased.

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상수도 공급과정 중 재염소 투입에 따른 잔류염소농도 수체감소계수 예측모델 개발 (Development of prediction models of chlorine bulk decay coefficient by rechlorination in water distribution network)

  • 정보배;김기범;서지원;구자용
    • 상하수도학회지
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2019
  • This study developed prediction models of chlorine bulk decay coefficient by each condition of water quality, measuring chlorine bulk decay coefficients of the water and water quality by water purification processes. The second-reaction order of chlorine were selected as the optimal reaction order of research area because the decay of chlorine was best represented. Chlorine bulk decay coefficients of the water in conventional processes, advanced processes before rechlorination was respectively $5.9072(mg/L)^{-1}d^{-1}$ and $3.3974(mg/L)^{-1}d^{-1}$, and $1.2522(mg/L)^{-1}d^{-1}$ and $1.1998(mg/L)^{-1}d^{-1}$ after rechlorination. As a result, the reduction of organic material concentration during the retention time has greatly changed the chlorine bulk decay coefficient. All the coefficients of determination were higher than 0.8 in the developed models of the chlorine bulk decay coefficient, considering the drawn chlorine bulk decay coefficient and several parameters of water quality and statistically significant. Thus, it was judged that models that could express the actual values, properly were developed. In the meantime, the chlorine bulk decay coefficient was in proportion to the initial residual chlorine concentration and the concentration of rechlorination; however, it may greatly vary depending on rechlorination. Thus, it is judged that it is necessary to set a plan for the management of residual chlorine concentration after experimentally assessing this change, utilizing the methodology proposed in this study in the actual fields. The prediction models in this study would simulate the reduction of residual chlorine concentration according to the conditions of the operation of water purification plants and the introduction of rechlorination facilities, more reasonably considering water purification process and the time of chlorination. In addition, utilizing the prediction models, the reduction of residual chlorine concentration in the supply areas can be predicted, and it is judged that this can be utilized in setting plans for the management of residual chlorine concentration.

Prediction of Dimensional Instability Resulting from Layer Removal of an Internally Stressed Orthotropic Composite Cylinder

  • Shin, Shang-Hyon
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.757-761
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    • 2002
  • When a layer of cylindrical composite component containing an axisymmetric residual stress state is removed from the inner or outer surface, the dimension of the remaining material changes to balance internal forces. Therefore, in order to machine cylindrical composite components within tolerances, it is important to know dimensional changes caused by residual stress redistribution in the body. In this study, analytical solutions for dimensional changes and the redistribution of residual stresses due to the layer removal from a residually stressed cylindrically orthotropic cylinder were developed. The cylinder was assumed to have axisymmetric radial, tangential and axial residual stresses. The result of this study is useful in cases where the initial residual stress distribution in the component has been measured by a non-destructive technique such as neutron diffraction with no information on the effect of layer removal operation on the dimensional changes.

FPSO Moon Pool 구조의 용접변형과 잔류응력에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Weld-Induced Deformation and Residual Stress Analysis at FPSO Moon Pool Structure)

  • 한성우;이주성;김상일
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제48권5호
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    • pp.473-478
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    • 2011
  • Welding process generates distortion and residual stress in the weldment due to rapid heating and cooling. Welding distortion and residual stress in the welded structure result in many troubles such as dimensional inaccuracies in assembling and safety problem during service. The accurate prediction of welding residual stress is thus very important to improve the quality of weldment and find the way to reduce itself. This paper presents the simulation of welding-induced residual stress analysis to examine the cause of cracking in the SUS-overlay welding specimen at FPSO Moon Pool structure.