• Title/Summary/Keyword: residual life prediction

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A Study on High Temperature Crack Growth Behavior in 2.25Cr-lMo Steel Weldments at $550^{\circ}C$ ($550^{\circ}C$에서의 2.25Cr-1Mo 강 용접부의 고온 균열성장 거동에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ho-Kyung;Chung, Kang;Chung, Chin-Sung
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.278-284
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    • 2001
  • Both creep deformation and creep crack growth experiments have been conducted on 2.25Cr-1Mo steel weldment in order to provided an information on residual life prediction of structural component weldment containing a crack. The stress exponent of creep deformation equation for the base metal and weldment at 823k were found to be 10.2 and 7.3, respectively. These two values could be assumed that dislocation climb processes are controlling the creep deformation of both materials. The creep rate of the weldment was very low, compared with that of base metal under the same applied stress. Whereas the creep crack growth rate of the weldment was almost twice higher than that of base metal under the fixed value of $C^*$. This may indicate that the weldment is stronger than the base metal in view of creep deformation and is brittle during creep crack growth due to the intrinsic microstructure of banite and relatively higher and Mn contents.

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The Retardation Behaviors due to a Single Overload and High-Low Block Loads, and Retardation Model in 7075-T73 Aluminum Alloy (7075-T73 알루미늄 합금의 단일과대 및 고-저블럭하중에 의한 지연거동과 수명예측 모델)

  • 김정규;송달호;박병훈
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.1605-1614
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    • 1992
  • The effects of % overload (% O.L), baseline stress intensity factor range (.DELTA. $K_{b}$) and dimension-less crack depth (a/W) are examined for the retardation behaviors after a single overload and high-low block loads in 7075-T73 aluminum alloy. And wheeler model, which is one of the fatigue life prediction models, is modified to predict retardation life using these test results. The retardation cycles( $N_{d}$) increased with a decrease in a/W and an increase in % O.L. and (.DELTA. $K_{b}$) These effects are more severe after high-low block loads than single overload. In the case of single overload, the main mechanisms of the retardation are the crack closure and the relaxation of K due to crack branching. But in the case of high-low block loads, that of the main mechanism is the crack closure caused by the accumulated compressive residual stree at the crack tip, which is related with the contact of fracture surfaces. Test results were multiple regression analyzed and got regressed shaping correction factors, (n)$_{REG}$, as function of %O.L., a/W and (.DELTA. $K_{b}$) Wheeler model is modified by using these (n)$_{REG}$. The number of delay cycles calculated by modified Wheeler model were in good agreement with the test results of this study.y.udy.y.y.y.

A Study on the Prediction of Residual Probability of Fine Dust in Complex Urban Area (복잡한 도심에서의 유입된 미세먼지 잔류 가능성 예보 연구)

  • Park, Sung Ju;Seo, You Jin;Kim, Dong Wook;Choi, Hyun Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.111-128
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    • 2020
  • This study presents a possibility of intensification of fine dust mass concentration due to the complex urban structure using data mining technique and clustering analysis. The data mining technique showed no significant correlation between fine dust concentration and regional-use public urban data over Seoul. However, clustering analysis based on nationwide-use public data showed that building heights (floors) have a strong correlation particularly with PM10. The modeling analyses using the single canopy model and the micro-atmospheric modeling program (ENVI-Met. 4) conducted that the controlled atmospheric convection in urban area leaded to the congested flow pattern depending on the building along the distribution and height. The complex structure of urban building controls convective activity resulted in stagnation condition and fine dust increase near the surface. Consequently, the residual effect through the changes in the thermal environment caused by the shape and structure of the urban buildings must be considered in the fine dust distribution. It is notable that the atmospheric congestion may be misidentified as an important implications for providing information about the residual probability of fine dust mass concentration in the complex urban area.

Prediction of Expected Residual Useful Life of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Gamma Process (추계학적 감마 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 기대 잔류유효수명 예측)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2019
  • A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

A Modification in the Analysis of the Growth Rate of Short Fatigue Cracks in S45C Carbon Steel under Reversed Loading (반복하중조건 하에서의 S45C 탄소강에 대한 미소피로균열 성장속도 해석의 수정)

  • McEvily,A.J.
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.96-105
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    • 1995
  • A modified method for the analysis of short fatigue crack growth has been presented, and calculations based upon the modified method are compared with experimental results for S45C carbon steel. It is also shown that the modified method is in good agreement with experimental data. The proposed equation for the fatigue crack growth rates includes a material constant which relates the threshold level to the endurance limit, a correction for elastic-plastic behaviour and a means for dealing with the effects of crack closure. In this study one of the modifications is to substitute the Forman' s elastic expression of the stress intensity factor range into the geometrical factor The other is a consideration of the bending effect which is developed from the moment caused by the eccentric cross sectional geometry as the crack grows. Thus, this method is useful for residual life prediction of the mechanical structures as well as the welding structures.

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Prediction of Future Milk Yield with Random Regression Model Using Test-day Records in Holstein Cows

  • Park, Byoungho;Lee, Deukhwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.915-921
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    • 2006
  • Various random regression models with different order of Legendre polynomials for permanent environmental and genetic effects were constructed to predict future milk yield of Holstein cows in Korea. A total of 257,908 test-day (TD) milk yield records from a total of 28,135 cows belonging to 1,090 herds were considered for estimating (co)variance of the random covariate coefficients using an expectation-maximization REML algorithm in an animal mixed model. The variances did not change much between the models, having different order of Legendre polynomial, but a decreasing trend was observed with increase in the order of Legendre polynomial in the model. The R-squared value of the model increased and the residual variance reduced with the increase in order of Legendre polynomial in the model. Therefore, a model with $5^{th}$ order of Legendre polynomial was considered for predicting future milk yield. For predicting the future milk yield of cows, 132,771 TD records from 28,135 cows were randomly selected from the above data by way of preceding partial TD record, and then future milk yields were estimated using incomplete records from each cow randomly retained. Results suggested that we could predict the next four months milk yield with an error deviation of 4 kg. The correlation of more than 70% between predicted and observed values was estimated for the next four months milk yield. Even using only 3 TD records of some cows, the average milk yield of Korean Holstein cows would be predicted with high accuracy if compared with observed milk yield. Persistency of each cow was estimated which might be useful for selecting the cows with higher persistency. The results of the present study suggested the use of a $5^{th}$ order Legendre polynomial to predict the future milk yield of each cow.

State recognition of fine blanking stamping dies through vibration signal machine learning (진동신호 기계학습을 통한 프레스 금형 상태 인지)

  • Seok-Kwan Hong;Eui-Chul Jeong;Sung-Hee Lee;Ok-Rae Kim;Jong-Deok Kim
    • Design & Manufacturing
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2022
  • Fine blanking is a press processing technology that can process most of the product thickness into a smooth surface with a single stroke. In this fine blanking process, shear is an essential step. The punches and dies used in the shear are subjected to impacts of tens to hundreds of gravitational accelerations, depending on the type and thickness of the material. Therefore, among the components of the fine blanking mold (dies), punches and dies are the parts with the shortest lifespan. In the actual production site, various types of tool damage occur such as wear of the tool as well as sudden punch breakage. In this study, machine learning algorithms were used to predict these problems in advance. The dataset used in this paper consisted of the signal of the vibration sensor installed in the tool and the measured burr size (tool wear). Various features were extracted so that artificial intelligence can learn effectively from signals. It was trained with 5 features with excellent distinguishing performance, and the SVM algorithm performance was the best among 33 learning models. As a result of the research, the vibration signal at the time of imminent tool replacement was matched with an accuracy of more than 85%. It is expected that the results of this research will solve problems such as tool damage due to accidental punch breakage at the production site, and increase in maintenance costs due to prediction errors in punch exchange cycles due to wear.

Prediction of tensile strength degradation of corroded steel based on in-situ pitting evolution

  • Yun Zhao;Qi Guo;Zizhong Zhao;Xian Wu;Ying Xing
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.385-401
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    • 2023
  • Steel is becoming increasingly popular due to its high strength, excellent ductility, great assembly performance, and recyclability. In reality, steel structures serving for a long time in atmospheric, industrial, and marine environments inevitably suffer from corrosion, which significantly decreases the durability and the service life with the exposure time. For the mechanical properties of corroded steel, experimental studies are mainly conducted. The existing numerical analyses only evaluate the mechanical properties based on corroded morphology at the isolated time-in-point, ignoring that this morphology varies continuously with corrosion time. To solve this problem, the relationships between pit depth expectation, standard deviation, and corrosion time are initially constructed based on a large amount of wet-dry cyclic accelerated test data. Successively, based on that, an in-situ pitting evolution method for evaluating the residual tensile strength of corroded steel is proposed. To verify the method, 20 repeated simulations of mass loss rates and mechanical properties are adopted against the test results. Then, numerical analyses are conducted on 135 models of corrosion pits with different aspect ratios and uneven corrosion degree on two corroded surfaces. Results show that the power function with exponents of 1.483 and 1.091 can well describe the increase in pit depth expectation and standard deviation with corrosion time, respectively. The effect of the commonly used pit aspect ratios of 0.10-0.25 on yield strength and ultimate strength is negligible. Besides, pit number ratio α equating to 0.6 is the critical value for the strength degradation. When α is less than 0.6, the pit number increases with α, accelerating the degradation of strength. Otherwise, the strength degradation is weakened. In addition, a power function model is adopted to characterize the degradation of yield strength and ultimate strength with corrosion time, which is revised by initial steel plate thickness.